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About stadiumwave

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    Murray, Kentucky

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  1. Thanks for sharing Tom. Good luck but I hope you're off your game this year. It is 2020 after all.
  2. 1988-89 was one & it's also a strong analog for this winter for various reasons. If you look at that winter I encourage you look at it in 10 day increments. DEC had a good cold stretch & so did FEB/MAR. But JAN had a really strong warm stretch that kind of skews the 3 month mean.
  3. He did talk of warmth last year & was not popular. Larry is objective...not a "cold every year" wishcaster. He may be wrong but not for that reason. Kind of refreshing to see someone not simply driven by nuances & status quo Climatology & make a cookie cutter La Nina forecast. That's lazy! And that is a lot of what I see every year nationally. It's evident from his analog years he put a lot of thought & considered many factors.
  4. So is this temporary? I know @ORH_wxman had mentioned he thought easterlies would keep this east. Right now...clearly coldest anomalies chugging west.
  5. Is @Isotherm not posting a winter outlook this year?
  6. Where the warmth is located around & north of Hudson it would appear so.
  7. Trust don't want to There are no positives to glean. DEC...has a -NAO & might possibly squeeze a good storm or slop...if there is a temporary improvement out west not discernable in the means. JAN FEB
  8. The culprit at this point is that most of the seasonal models keep indicating a very strong +AO/+NAO/+EPO & a -PNA. So if the models are wrong at this point just a little it will lead to a big bust. If they are correct it's going to mean a long and depressing Winter for Winter weather lovers. Has the look of a very strong stratosphere ploar vortex. I'll be honest this would surprise me. It seems that most stratosphere experts believe that the record strong +IOD last winter was the lead culprit. IOD is negative for now & I dunno.
  9. FWIW...European Seasonal model updated & its a complete blowtorch for the entire CONUS for the entire winter. Alaska & Grrenland is the only winter in all of N. America.
  10. Current SST anomalies...certainly +PDO. Last 15 days...increasing +PDO. Although I 100% agree with your statement hat it can quickly change & especially during fall seasons. So, thinking winter by looking at PDO in fall "can" certainly backfire.
  11. So, let's say it was 132. Who knows maybe it was 135. I still think the driving force is just to think "that just can't happen", so let's investigate a reason to show how bad they missed it. Lets do away with the record. So, let's question the 100 degree temp in Alaska in 1915 also.