stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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Paul Roundy's tool updated today. Wowzers!! Winter pattern through the end of JAN. We'll see. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjoertap.html Roundy on X today said he gives a 60% chance of the east U.S. getting cold in Feb as well.
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Todays Weeklies have zero warmth in sight throughout the forecast period.
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MJO Phases 7 & 8 & both really good as you move into DEC. Phase 6 is good in DEC until 2nd half of DEC. Phase 7 & 8 gets better each week as you progress into DEC. Phase 7 starts getting worse as you get into JAN. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html
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12z EPS has persistent cold for though the end.
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Was not referring to you. SS media. Yours is a forecast, the ones I am referring to are just warm biased nuts.
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Ummm Its strange, it took one model run for several SS media folks to think they had the strat all figured out after one forecast spike: "Brief SSW, then raging SPV coming." 3 days of weakening trends & no one but one SS media guy saying anything or correcting. SPV is giving everyone the middle finger.
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Amazing how quite You were amazingly quiet yesterday.
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Of course, there is always a large spread in LR. I said the mean. The mean had been going above normal for several days...it is not now. That is why I shared it. There are a lot of members much, much weaker, even implying a possibility of maybe future warming.
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Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period.
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The person who submitted a paper on this is who the bottom quote is from. Research is based on large SOI drops with strongest correlation of i think 21 points or greater. This drop was 39 points...so pretty strong correlation. Based on the research.
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https://x.com/webberweather/status/1993264759794282993?t=BTUYDs0rjkTSzBtZFlACrg&s=19
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15 day change
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What SER, lol??
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Ensemble confirmation: GEFS 0z, 12z, tonight 0z And we're putting stock in 3-4 weeks model output??? Lol
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Look at the Canadian 0z, 12, 0z comparison in temps. Under 120 hrs with that kind of change is criminal
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And it is not just GFS...Canadian does the same...much colder
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I mean...this one little detail south of Alaska is pretty massive! Whoops...
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If models are going to be this bad its going to be a long winter. Last 4 GFS runs for this weekend
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Watch East Asia (EAR)
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RRWT model, which is based on rosby waves (Josh Herman's model), has persistently shown a cold Christmas for a good while. This was yesterday's update for dates Dec 24-28: 500mb
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Change of Euro OP over last 3 runs for late period I figured it was worthy to mention since some of the other runs were.
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JMA looks like it is going to be the earliest to phase 8
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Normal GEFS has it in phase 8 by DEC 6th now:
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FWIW, 15 day changes
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I am trying to figure out,is someone really saying it is not? And if so how can they say that?
