stadiumwave

DEC

FEB MAR

CANSIPS DEC JAN

Its really not that big of a deal.

Sorry to have to make 3 posts because of the forum...but any who

One of Paul Roudy's tools https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

Nice composite

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early.

Agree! I was referring to Roundy was talking about the extreme heat release of the 97-98 El Nino was for the most part what led to a 12-16 yr hiatus in global temps. He thinks this El Nino will do the same. Talked about how the 2022-23 Nino released an enormous amount of heat & with this true Super event on its heels we might see a peak, crash, leveling off of global temps for a few years. Paul is very unorthodox by mainstream, in his views of CC. His views are certainly relevant considering he is a freaking giant in Atmospheric Science. He is not a denier of CC but a strong rejector of "Climate Alarmists" & "Political Activism" getting remotely close to any branch of science. He gets annoyed with so many of the public blabbers have not a clue about the climate mechanisms they talk about.

Roundy has had some great discussion surrounding this over the summer.

It is weather! One's experienced weather in one's short life or extremely small period of record keeping is just...meh.

I just do not buy Phase 6 being cold

Ha, just coming to post. Models suck

Yes,started changing a couple of days ago rather rapidly. Been the same story since NOV

0z Euro....lol

Not much, & certainly trending weaker, which has been a repeating trend since NOV. I honestly do think it will make a difference either way, but I am just saying...what people point out & what they ignore is comical.

I wonder if all the people that ran to Twitter like a kid to post how strong the SPV would be (assuming it meant warmth), will be as eager to post the same data has significantly changed? WED Update THURS Update FRI Update

This is why watching SPV forecasts very far out at all will bite you, if you're predicting by using them. Make note of trends like a new weakening verses yesterday & many more members after that versus yesterday. Changes a lot & has since NOV. yesterday's

I guess you failed to read...Merry Christmas

Unless there is strong coupling between the stratosphere & troposphere it really does not matter.

I remember posting that all the early strat warming, -QBO, La Nina winters had JAN as the coldest month in the analog package. The 3 years that had an actual early SSW (this year being one) it took on average 4 weeks before a noticeable affect on pattern. All 3 year had an effect on the troposphere pattern. Now, I am not saying JAN will be colder than DEC at all but historically the analogs suggested the odds of having some winter in JAN were higher than average. Therefore, if models have not gone bonkers today & holding forth fools gold & the flip is legit, is this a case we all died by model data instead of looking skeptically at the model data? If a more wintry like pattern emerges should we be all thay surprised?

Its a total flip of the pattern being advertised yesterday to today. The 500mb look is just ridiculously different...a flip if there ever was one.