stadiumwave

Another look. I'm sharing because this is so cool looking! Watch it eat!

Rock & roll! Happy new year!

Good old "MJO confusion" model run to run variability I think.

But at that point it's already weak & decoupled from the troposphere and it really doesn't matter. Opens the door for increase HL blocking. Also that is classic precursor to a full-blown SSW which is defined by a reversing of the winds. Smart money is it's going to occur.

GEFS 10mb Anomaly GEFS control 10mb anomaly

Organic methods still looking good for cold that 2nd week.

With a month long +PNA. So, who cares

CFS continues to show NAO & AO drop around & after Christmas.

East Asia has a lot of troughiness being modeled Dec 16-29. Per East Asia Rule, correlates to east U.S. 6-10 days later. Somewhere around Christmas through 1st week of new year. The 0z GFS & GEFS changed drastically for Christmas Eve. Trend This does not appear to be a cold outbreak but some seasonal & perhaps tad below normal when systems swing through. Would support some possible snow potential somewhere during that period . EDIT: I could've swore I saw DEC 24 on the analog map, ha. My point was irrelevant except for the Christmas period.

JMA updated...great JAN & FEB JAN FEB

UKMET updated...great looking JFM 500mb 2m Temps 850mb Temps Precip SST's

Continued warming Strat warming episodes, weakening the SPV is probably fine as long as MJO cooperates. If not...need SSW & reset.

CFS Weeklies really swinging to colder look 2nd week of JAN as we've been discussing: That AO & NAO drop that far out is pretty significant. If models are correct on that period, and I think they're catching on, then expect that signal to intensify.

I've been up in the air about whether a full blown SSW is needed. I've about decided....yes. Either full-blown reversal or a significant weakening event to shake things up.

I mentioned a couple of days ago there are signs of the 2nd week of Jan...8-15...being colder per organic methods. I'm pretty certain of a trough, but anomalies are always in question. Fingers crossed for those colder anomaly solutions if today's update.

12z EURO caved more to the GFS idea.

This may not look like much to some but the stratosphere forecast between Euro & GFS is a big difference:

It did but inititial model guidance had it moving way to fast which smart money was always on a slower propagation. Models finally corrected. Everyone needs to keep in mind that models are not stellar at MJO forecast. And during active MJO winters models usually suck pretty bad. If they get MJO wrong then the overall 500mb pattern is more than likely wrong as well. As a rule of thumb I'd be skeptical of model guidance outside of 5 days on specific systems & 7-10 days on overall global patterns.

I've read more whining on social media than I can bare. I've seen nothing change for the worse. The thought has always been a typical warmer El Nino DEC that toward the end of the month begins improving & into JAN has good winter potential. My analog package which consisted of 2 super El Ninos, 3 strong El Ninos, & 2 moderate had the typical Dec warmth. A nice JAN with colder conditions in SE & with a strong Aleutian low. Aleutian low weakens & retrograde in FEB & that month has the strongest high latitude blocking. Winter ends late FEB & transitions to a warmer March. Headed onto January the 0z long-range GFS looks great.

Not for NE.

EPS, DEC 23 Paul Roundy's "Low pass MJO, ER Constructed Analog", DEC 27th...looks similar:

The deeper into Dec we get Phase 7 is not a bad phase per Roundy's MJO guidance

A lot of signs emerging that the 2nd week of JAN will be a cold pattern for everyone east of say Kansas.

JMA Weeklies just updated. Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 & 4