stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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For that reason, the climatology factor built into models is a factor in the low accuracy for now even in the medium range. GFS for 11/28 from the 14th model runs to today. Clearly, it is the expected to the observation:
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Again, yea. Maybe you did not read my post closely. Last year was a La Nina. There was a deep -PDO. I predicted a -PNA dominated winter & a very warm, low snow east & several did. Despite that, the winter defied the odds & was dominated by +PNA. All I am saying is that its weather....not always just simple. So a little humility is needed.
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Nearly a guidance is going more amped through 7 & then moving into 8 now. Canadian output is the lone exception
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So what was your guess last year during a La Nina dominated by +PNA? PDO was even more negative at this point last year. Could it be more -PNA? Yes! Is it a given? No!
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Can't you see how terrible that looks?? Its gotta be wrong until there's a run that has a deep trough in Cali & raging ridge in the East....then it's gospel. But do not worry, it is all objective with no subjectiveness at all. BTW, the posters I am messing with (you know who you are) I mean it all in total fun. You guys are actually really good posters!!
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Locked & loaded
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Phase 7 in DEC is usually a decent phase though??
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Look at Region 1 & 2
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Good ol Nina
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15 day change
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Phase 6-8 in DEC are not bad at all. 6 turns bad in JAN/FEB. A lot of misconceptions about MJO phases. Use Roundy's RMM: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html
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Temporarily that has relaxed. But when you have politicians start saying the world will end in 12 years, just 4 years ago, that usually generates the crazies.
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0z GFS, end of month PAC to Atlantic HLT blocking
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Also, I would add Weeklies is based on 0z data. There were noticeable 12z changes on EPS, GEFS, GEPS. Ridge not ridge gone on GEPS & less prevalent on EPS & GEFS than it was on 0z for the 11-15 day. It will be interesting to see the early period on tomorrow's Weeklies update.
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DEC 23-28 https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/16/#findComment-129642
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12z GEPS
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I follow Max with severe weather but what's his track record with winter?
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My 4 weeks post was simply looking at the previous years with early warming events, looking at the following weeks & in those few years this has occurred, it appeared to be around 4 weeks the troposphere was clearly being affected by the event, which I found interesting. Great post Don & much needed...as usual!
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There can be immediate affects on the troposphere if the SPV & troposphere are strongly coupled which does not appear to be the case at the moment. If it gets immediately cold in early DEC it is not from the affects of the SSWE. And obviously there are no guarantees of how the SSWE later shakes out in the troposphere, we can only use analogs to guess.
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Looking at all those years week by week every year was about 4 weeks on average when the full effects of the SSW were felt. Its a good bet the affects of this SSW will be late DEC at the earliest & into JAN.
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High skill is like the last 3 days, lol. But hey, it is not usually that bad with the end result.
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CFS Weeklies just now got on board with some cold. Has been baby stepping for several runs. NOV 27-DEC 7
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I'd think so but I heard that talk last Nov as well. It should, but I am kind of hesitant.
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What's crazy is just like last fall, we have been mostly +PNA since mid-Oct, and really since mid-Sept mostly +PNA. If that holds most of winter it would be unusual.
