stadiumwave

JAMSTEC Updated. Remember,no 500mb maps. Looks warm & dry

Yes, but my point is he said the westerly wind event would cause the MEI to climb. It did not & he knew all about the problems with MEI when he tweeted it. I see 2 things going on. Paul & several others are correctly pointing out this El Nino is stronger than the indexes would indicate but at the same time, almost all that they keep pointing to that will cause this to be reflected keeps failing to transpire. And this event continues to behave in ways they did not expect.

Paul says those phases will be short lived.

Roundy argues that the spike is a temporary blip. It's not a spike directly related to C02 which is more gradual. He explained it as this unusual El Nino event preceded by triple La Nina: Paulshared Ryan's research about the 1877-78, which is arguably the strongest El Nino on record. Eric Webb has referenced this greatly in the past. Paul has as well. I'm not good at going back through tweets but somewhere Paul explained the ocean heat release with this El Nino which he says is the most unique since 1877-78, indexes aside.

I know Paul Roundy explained how much the MEI index sucks but why did he tweet this back on Oct 24th? FWIW, he was wrong. I'm not trying to knock Paul because I love that dude! But it kind of muddied his double down about how the latest weak MEI didn't matter.

Paul Roundy's take on the global spike needs to be here. The sky isn't falling.

Great job! Great effort!

It's amazing how much the CFS Weeklies have changed for DEC in the last 2 days. Dates are on top of images:

Could be a perfect marriage if you think about it.

First, I said my analIogs have less +PNA, & -EPO. Second, you're saying because they missed 2018-19 then it follows they automatically do the same? Caution...yes. But...inevitably miss the same way? Possible but not a given.

Yea, but you can't just say that when you don't like what its showing. No one should take a seasonal model as gospel but common themes & trends should be noted. The signal may be muted but can't totally ignore.

What are the odds CanSips, Euro, & JMA all terribly miss the entire seasonal forecast in NOV? It's not the gospel but not too terribly far off what my analogs are showing. JAN FEB These analogs do have less -EPO.

DJF DEC JAN FEB That's impressive!

JMA... I'm not where I can post it but I'll put the link and you'll can pull it up. January February is like absolutely cold. DEC Is strong Nino was Dec https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

CFS Weeklies sure changed for the first week of DEC

So most models have MJO in either phase 8 or 1 to start DEC. It's not a very high amplitude but is this truly MJO? I know that the RMM does not always reflect reality.

They've been awful!

But that next Kelvin Wave, like those strong westerlies, will bump it up to 2.5. Oh wait, the westerlies didn't bump it up. I feel like for 6 weeks, it's always that next big thing....and this Nino will show its monstrosity....except it never does.

UKMET

Can you post January?

Correct. Which would not be surprising. However, the weeklies have been pretty much worthless past day 10 for a while. So while we probably should have the expectation of warm I do not think the weeklies have a hold of the pattern

It's only really super when it can sustain it on the ONI...3 mthn. Ain't happening.