stadiumwave

The only analog DJF 500mb pattern I could find close was a poor man's blend of 1977-78, 2009-10, 2014-15. Again...a poor man's blend, & we're talking 500mb...NOT 2m temp anomalies.

Click on z500, t850, SLP under "Warm/Cold Season Prediction" http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/index.html

Wish a single thread were made for Florence. Let's keep this thread for overall fall & winter pattern discussion if we could. I know most are focused Florence right now & rightfully so. But holy moly on JMA Seasonal for DEC!! Average Oct, warm Nov. BUT DEC...robust -EPO, -NAO (blocking mostly around Davis Strait). Looks very similar to updated Euro: The entire winter looks NUTS also. Look at 3 month first & you can change through individual OCT/NOV/DEC. Then you can click on DEC-FEB mean on first page of link. Good stuff...if you like winter! Winter mean has robust -EPO, -NAO, -AO combo. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

I know most are focused Florence right now & rightfully so. But holy moly on JMA Seasonal for DEC!! Average Oct, warm Nov. BUT DEC...robust -EPO, -NAO (blocking mostly around Davis Strait). Looks very similar to updated Euro: The entire winter looks NUTS also. Look at 3 month first & you can change through individual OCT/NOV/DEC. Then you can click on DEC-FEB mean on first page of link. Good stuff...if you like winter! Winter mean has robust -EPO, -NAO, -AO combo. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

UKMET Seasonal updated...looks nice https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

I think you guys will like the European Seasonal update for DJF. Very similar to last month.

That's 2 months on a row of similar output. I still don't really pay attention until Oct. Even then skill isn't great for any model but trends in forecasts are helpful.

Atmospheric forcing is already Nino

Oh, I misunderstood your question. I said in the original post which I put the link in that it is under the "Results" tab in the article: I'm not sure why you would need the proof though??? You can look at the SST anomaly composite & clearly see for yourself that it was a CP El Nino.

1994-95 was a CP Nino (modoki flavor). NOAA classifies it as such & sst's I posted show it as such. It wasn't weak but it was CP. Even in journal literature 94-95 is classified as a Central Pacific Nino or Modoki. Read under "Results" tab: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep38540

I don't expect as strong of a ridge as 2014-15....which was insane; however, EPO will be key. PDO might be a worry forvwinter lovers. If it not at least positive some then not as much +PNA & a -NAO will be a necessity.

Please remember that I keep saying this is preliminary. I have my reasons for my thinking but let's see how it's looking when we get closer before getting into all of that. Way too much up in the air right now to be sharing detailed thoughts of the "why" when my preliminary thoughts are based on BIG assumptions at the moment. 1994-1995 was moderate CP Nino. Not sure what you're looking at. 1991-92 was a strong hybrid CP Nino. ONI of 1.7 for DJF. 2009-10 peaked in NDJ with an ONI of 1.6. So barely beating it out. Among many other differences one of the key was the later peak in 1991-92 which seems to often make a winter difference. Declining NINO's in Jan/Feb usually good. Strengthening not so much On +NAO & mid-Atlantic snowfall. It all depends on the setup....2014-15 was above average snowfall & a very +NAO winter. Last of all let me say I did not intend to imply I thought you were a wishcaster. I've never thought that & that's not what I mean by my comment.

1991-1992, 1994-95, 2004-2005 just off the top of my head without research. Events are unique & not averages. Averages are numerous combined events & through which we get Climo. But it is a mistake just to look at a compilation of multiple Modoki's & suggest that Climo is the expected outcome of this one....if it occurs. Especially considering I hinted at most snowfall being just south of Climo & it did not suit your wish. That's crazy! One of the factors is that despite low solar, modoki, &-QBO, the -NAO may not be dominant. It seems as if the atmosphere with the very, very low heights around Davis Strait & Greenland may be trying to tell us something. It's still too early to tell but my research suggests that's possible. That's why I think 2014-15 is a good analog. That's the primary reason. Look at cold winters in east without predominant -NAO & where does most of the snowfall. You see larger mid-Atlantic/Coastal Carolina events during those years. But again....preliminary

#1 I did say preliminary #2 I don't think Climo status quo. Just because there is a weak CP Nino it doesn't necessarily mean it all pans out status quo. For example we've had some warm CP ninos. Other factors besides ENSO...especially a weak event

Preliminary thought: Good bet on -EPO/-AO/+NAO during coldest periods with a periodic -NAO block at times. It's really hard to ignore 2014-15 as a strong analog so far. 2002-2003 & 2009-10 bares a little weight but I think El Nino's too strong those years to be an analog...or at least an analog for ENSO purposes. Great Lakes & North East coast could see some really cold periods. Tennessee Valley, Carolina Coast to mid-Atlantic could be jackpot for snow. NE will get their share but jackpot further south.

This is pretty interesting. All the years Anthony lists are CP (Modoki) El Nino winters except 2006. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1026651411013091333 Also another interesting tweet from Anthony: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1027675460828897280

Lol...whoops. Eric Webb runs Webber Weather. Sorry about that. Keep in mind that a weak CP El Nino (modoki) & a weak East based La Nina can have similar atmospheric responses.

I suggest you follow Eric Webber on Twitter. Very helpful. Current observations not exactly telling of ENSO conditions in 4 months...can change quickly

Lol...are you serious? Weak modoki looks most likely at this point.

EPS Monthly just updated & it would be a winter lovers dream 500mb mean for DJF https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1026452522142248960?s=19

EPS monthly just updated & matches CanSips but even better overall. It's a dream DJF 500mb mean for many https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1026452522142248960

I ignore 2m temp anomalies on LR models. All I'm interested in is 500mb mean pattern. However....like I said: it's Cansips & I'm not fond of the model