stadiumwave

Most La Ninas have a -PDO average for DJF. Don't forget that 2010-11 was -PDO & cold. Bottom line: +PDO winters do not automatically = Cold winter -PDO winters do not automatically = Warm winter It's more complex than that.

Right. BTW, was not saying this winter is going to be 2010-11. There are several years that serve as analogs for NPAC SST's in OCT: 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1971, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2013. It's just amazing how different all those winters were...some polar opposites. BTW, 2007 is probably #1 match, but probably means zippo at this point. I'm just not a fan of typical climo, cookie-cutter predictions. It's not really yhat simple, which you of all I know...knows this.

Of course, but then there's this: So many factors can make a massive difference.

Later the better.

I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013: BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013: Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now.

For everyone wanting to make a big deal about NPAC SST's in OCT like every year. Remember NPAC SST's are subject to large fluctuations in OCT/NOV. I give you SST's for October 7, 2013: October 7, 2021...CURRENT: Rosby wave activity in OCT/NOV leading to large fluctuations in NPAC SST's in short time periods, should prevent conclusions about winter using NPAC SST's at this point

Unfortunately NMME page does not have 500mb.

It's guidance. I wouldn't get too worked up yet at every detail. I would make note of a very strong cold source advertised. Keep on mind these models actually are decent only on a monthly forecast at the beginning of the month being predicted. If you've been following just about every model has not been doing well on the 2nd month out. But for sure the teleconnections stink on that update. CFS took a step in a good direction but has a longway to go for a good winter pattern.

NMME Page...updated. Little change most notable is colder over western Canada. NMME Older NMME New CFS Older CFS New Canadian Older Canadian New NCAR Older NCAR New NASA Older NASA New

Euro Seasonal Update....ugly NEW DEC OLD DEC NEW JAN OLD JAN NEW FEB OLD FEB Certainly it's not gospel but I do not like the trend. Hopefully NOV improves.

Throw those in & OCT is not as currently forecasted. My blend is not a forecast. I'm simply showing which analogs come up with the best OCT forecasted match. I then simply shared what that blend would look like for winter. Ironically the blend is all 2nd year -ENSO. It's interesting & is info for others to take into account when putting together a winter outlook. Just another slice of the pie.

An interesting blend: 1996-97, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2017-18...all 2nd year Nina's: OCTOBER That's very similar to what is forecasted by latest CANSIPS: That blend has a great first half of winter: DEC/JAN Then ridging takes over in FEB: FEB Pretty intriguing with the October if that forecast verifies.

Thanks for sharing Tom. Good luck but I hope you're off your game this year. It is 2020 after all.

Great job!!

1988-89 was one & it's also a strong analog for this winter for various reasons. If you look at that winter I encourage you look at it in 10 day increments. DEC had a good cold stretch & so did FEB/MAR. But JAN had a really strong warm stretch that kind of skews the 3 month mean.

He did talk of warmth last year & was not popular. Larry is objective...not a "cold every year" wishcaster. He may be wrong but not for that reason. Kind of refreshing to see someone not simply driven by nuances & status quo Climatology & make a cookie cutter La Nina forecast. That's lazy! And that is a lot of what I see every year nationally. It's evident from his analog years he put a lot of thought & considered many factors.

Larry Cosgrove

So is this temporary? I know @ORH_wxman had mentioned he thought easterlies would keep this east. Right now...clearly coldest anomalies chugging west.

Is @Isotherm not posting a winter outlook this year?

Where the warmth is located around & north of Hudson it would appear so.

IRI Model updated DJF JFM

I'm hoping this is sarcasm?

Trust me...you don't want to see...lol. There are no positives to glean. DEC...has a -NAO & might possibly squeeze a good storm or slop...if there is a temporary improvement out west not discernable in the means. JAN FEB

The culprit at this point is that most of the seasonal models keep indicating a very strong +AO/+NAO/+EPO & a -PNA. So if the models are wrong at this point just a little it will lead to a big bust. If they are correct it's going to mean a long and depressing Winter for Winter weather lovers. Has the look of a very strong stratosphere ploar vortex. I'll be honest this would surprise me. It seems that most stratosphere experts believe that the record strong +IOD last winter was the lead culprit. IOD is negative for now & I dunno.

FWIW...European Seasonal model updated & its a complete blowtorch for the entire CONUS for the entire winter. Alaska & Grrenland is the only winter in all of N. America.