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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to see the H5 look. 

Trust me...you don't want to see...lol. There are no positives to glean.

DEC...has a -NAO & might possibly squeeze a good storm or slop...if there is a temporary improvement out west not discernable in the means.

20201005_103731.jpg.e48c960d9a8367f0f317ba81eb8d2cb7.jpg

 

JAN

20201005_103752.thumb.jpg.3f4f6cdecab07104b51d8b411ef2efad.jpg

 

 

FEB

20201005_103810.thumb.jpg.dfdb56ca06125d53eb2423c76944a2d5.jpg

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33 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

FWIW...European Seasonal model updated & its a complete blowtorch for the entire CONUS for the entire winter. Alaska & Grrenland is the only winter in all of N. America. 

20201005_101642.thumb.jpg.6bbb3d15de101ee455d3bd007dba2dc1.jpg

I don't really have a problem with this in the DJF ... particularly the latter two months of that range.  

I think as the 'base-line' eddy gets established in the winter hemisphere, it will probably be at more times than not ...seemingly unrelentingly in compressed look that emerges by virtue of the polar winter heights reaching a nadir between Jan 15 and Feb 10 or so... In that time range, we may have seasonal heights over the area, but because the compression is there, the winds are hauling seriously ablading cold incursions and or limiting their impact on regions to briefer times ...  

There is a way out of this though...  

2015 February -

Firstly, those seasonal products by the Euro are not that good - just keeping that in mind.  

Secondly, should the N-stream just become so overwhelming, we could end up in one of the -20 C 850 at all time air masses...with powdering coastals faking huge seasonal snow totals.. If there is anywhere in N/A where that would likely to occur, it is in the eastern Lakes-OV-NE band, where the PNAP favors a persistently anchored trough.  It does pull me to wonder at times if we can't sustain winter without that extreme - perhaps as an insidious "already" climate threshold cross that we're less collectively aware...  The HC is being documented and observed, in the private sector and in scholar and scientific formal arenas alike - and given the root causality...climate change ... theoretically that does not lend one to think it is going anywhere, either.  

So that scaffolds the vision of the futre around that flow being consummately impeded from the S by heights that are not receding - and we're only talking about about 6 dm ... But that's all we need in the integral from 30 N to 70 N to trigger the velocity surplus...which by wave mechanics than starts jostling the R-wave orientations, as well, creates interesting indivudal temporal-spatial scaled event morphologies.  Like 938 mb extratropical lows moving passed a region that thinks a Pratt&Whittney proving ground was exhausting through their region with a 6 hour 100 mph sideways show .... ( hyperbole but it was SOMEthing ludicrous!) ... weird shit. 

Anyway, non-sustaining cold before warm reloads to 45 N isn't a bad base-line in a ballooning HC...

That all said, prior to the onset of that circumstance...these book end months ... mid Octo to Dec 1 and ...then again through April 15 ...perhaps May 1, etc... those times the compression eases and continent passes back through a tendency period for -EPOs .... It's sort of causing a recurrent 'split' in winter - 

It's not all the time and or absolute, either... Just "tendency" - so...  Even though that seasonal product probably verifies well by dumb luck ...I could kind of see/tell/almost predict where that luck comes from. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

December verbatim wouldn't be too bad. Jan and Feb look ugly.

Yeah Dec doesn't really have a pig either...it's a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is actually pretty good for New England. Rest of the winter is canceled on that though, lol.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Dec doesn't really have a pig either...it's a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is actually pretty good for New England. Rest of the winter is canceled on that though, lol.

Idk about you guys but I feel like I've heard a little bit of everything on how this winter will go for New England, more uncertainty than usual, at least for me. Depends on what you read I guess.

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Dec doesn't really have a pig either...it's a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is actually pretty good for New England. Rest of the winter is canceled on that though, lol.

Well, lately when the LR looks good it turns out s***astic, so here’s hoping. 

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18 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Idk about you guys but I feel like I've heard a little bit of everything on how this winter will go for New England, more uncertainty than usual, at least for me. Depends on what you read I guess.

No offense to those who try to spend a lot of time and money on the seasonal stuff, but unless it's a strong ENSO signal, there is a lot of factors that account for temps...nevermind that snowfall is even more difficult to predict. A lot of voodoo. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No offense to those who try to spend a lot of time and money on the seasonal stuff, but unless it's a strong ENSO signal, there is a lot of factors that account for temps...nevermind that snowfall is even more difficult to predict. A lot of voodoo. 

Totally agree with you about the temps and with snow there are so many moving parts and even if things line up, your forecast still may not even materialize lol. My constant reminder is winter 2011-2012 where we had a weak La Nina, e'rly QBO, -PDO, snow weenies were jumping around with pt's and most of us in eastern MA got near record low snow lol. 

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Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

Totally agree with you about the temps and with snow there are so many moving parts and even if things line up, your forecast still may not even materialize lol. My constant reminder is winter 2011-2012 where we had a weak La Nina, e'rly QBO, -PDO, snow weenies were jumping around with pt's and most of us in eastern MA got near record low snow lol. 

I mean there is some skill, I'm not trying to insult that field.....but snow is what most care about and that metric is extremely difficult to predict.

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And another thing I have a hard time buying into are those seasonal monthly H5 anoms because that just depicts the average pattern so you could still get 1-2 good s/w's out of Canada that result in something measurable. 

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7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

FWIW...European Seasonal model updated & its a complete blowtorch for the entire CONUS for the entire winter. Alaska & Grrenland is the only winter in all of N. America. 

20201005_101642.thumb.jpg.6bbb3d15de101ee455d3bd007dba2dc1.jpg

 If you want to talk verbatim, remember plus 1 to 1.5゚C is the departure of +1.8 to +2.7°F.  That's nothing for northern areas.

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33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 If you want to talk verbatim, remember plus 1 to 1.5゚C is the departure of +1.8 to +2.7°F.  That's nothing for northern areas.

I am more worried about being dry. A month-long dry spell like September is pretty lame, although breaking it with 2-3 feet of snow would be OK. LOL

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am more worried about being dry. A month-long dry spell like September is pretty lame, although breaking it with 2-3 feet of snow would be OK. LOL

I agree. a classic la nina is stormy here in the lakes but I cant count on anything as the weather does what it wants.  In fact every fall it's the same thing, it's fun to look at forecasts and speculate but we know it's full of unknowns

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23 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am more worried about being dry. A month-long dry spell like September is pretty lame, although breaking it with 2-3 feet of snow would be OK. LOL

We are usually ok until temps get like +4 to +5 or greater departures... then it’s just too warm even up north or a pattern of cutters.  But I do find our snowfall takes the largest hit anecdotally once departures sort of crest over that +4-5 mark.  It goes downhill fast after that.

But yeah dry periods are boring anyway you put it.  Even a rainy cutter that ends as a few inches of NW flow snow is at least interesting... but going 3 weeks in January dry is about as boring as it gets.  

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 If you want to talk verbatim, remember plus 1 to 1.5゚C is the departure of +1.8 to +2.7°F.  That's nothing for northern areas.

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We are usually ok until temps get like +4 to +5 or greater departures... then it’s just too warm even up north or a pattern of cutters.  But I do find our snowfall takes the largest hit anecdotally once departures sort of crest over that +4-5 mark.  It goes downhill fast after that.

I was going to mention that as well, so I’m glad folks brought it up.  A temperature map with those warm colors on it doesn’t really indicate an issue – especially as one goes further north.  In fact, in the heart of winter up here, I’d typically rather see it a bit on the warm side vs. the opposite.  Even if there’s no correlation with increased precipitation, at least in means we’re not freezing our azzes off quite as much.  PF nicely pointed out where the actual departures start to matter in the north.  Of course, the whole thing is moot anyway.  The only real utility in these long-range forecasts is for refinement on the development end of the methodologies for eventual use down the road (or I guess something to keep weather weenies occupied); there isn’t any practical forecast utility at this point.

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Just anecdotal, but it feels like seasonal forecasting accuracy has somehow gotten worse over the years. I swear the seasonal forecasts I saw back in the 2000s and early 2010s were at least as good as a coin flip. Now they seem like they are not only always wrong, but way, way wrong. Are more people relying too much on seasonal models with essentially zero skill and ignoring contrary signs or not hedging and smoothing the forecast a little?

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47 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I was going to mention that as well, so I’m glad folks brought it up.  A temperature map with those warm colors on it doesn’t really indicate an issue – especially as one goes further north.  In fact, in the heart of winter up here, I’d typically rather see it a bit on the warm side vs. the opposite.  Even if there’s no correlation with increased precipitation, at least in means we’re not freezing our azzes off quite as much.  PF nicely pointed out where the actual departures start to matter in the north.  Of course, the whole thing is moot anyway.  The only real utility in these long-range forecasts is for refinement on the development end of the methodologies for eventual use down the road (or I guess something to keep weather weenies occupied); there isn’t any practical forecast utility at this point.

+1- +2 in Jan/Feb means very little up here actually as far as wintry weather is concerned, Vodka cold is typically dry.

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24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Just anecdotal, but it feels like seasonal forecasting accuracy has somehow gotten worse over the years. I swear the seasonal forecasts I saw back in the 2000s and early 2010s were at least as good as a coin flip. Now they seem like they are not only always wrong, but way, way wrong. Are more people relying too much on seasonal models with essentially zero skill and ignoring contrary signs or not hedging and smoothing the forecast a little?

I wonder if the Tip theory is the whole issue?   Basically calling enso based on SSTAs which may be in part overall warming induced making El Niño less predictable.   Conversely, perhaps on that basis the current nina is stronger than we think.   But the big problem is the sample size is so small vs real science (eg:  population studies in medical research could have an n of 30,000 vs the long range forecasting which is under 50 making it not really scientifically valid imho.

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10 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

I was going to mention that as well, so I’m glad folks brought it up.  A temperature map with those warm colors on it doesn’t really indicate an issue – especially as one goes further north.  In fact, in the heart of winter up here, I’d typically rather see it a bit on the warm side vs. the opposite.  Even if there’s no correlation with increased precipitation, at least in means we’re not freezing our azzes off quite as much.  PF nicely pointed out where the actual departures start to matter in the north.  Of course, the whole thing is moot anyway.  The only real utility in these long-range forecasts is for refinement on the development end of the methodologies for eventual use down the road (or I guess something to keep weather weenies occupied); there isn’t any practical forecast utility at this point.

The NDJFMA period averaged 2.3° warmer here in 2019-20 than in 2018-19, yet we saw over a foot more snowfall in 2019-20. That's just the most recent example, and I'm 42N. Not sure how far south these things realistically happen but regardless people need to be very careful to not just jump to a quick conclusion when they see a bunch of orange or red on a map, at least before looking at the grid lol

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Seasonal models look fairly consistent with Nina climo. Couple things to watch for is how much ridging we can get into AK/Bering and if we can pop some sort of -NAO or at least some strong 50/50 confluence. 

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20 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

December verbatim wouldn't be too bad. Jan and Feb look ugly.

 

20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Dec doesn't really have a pig either...it's a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is actually pretty good for New England. Rest of the winter is canceled on that though, lol.

I don't think that is far fetched.

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9 hours ago, weathafella said:

I wonder if the Tip theory is the whole issue?   Basically calling enso based on SSTAs which may be in part overall warming induced making El Niño less predictable.   Conversely, perhaps on that basis the current nina is stronger than we think.   But the big problem is the sample size is so small vs real science (eg:  population studies in medical research could have an n of 30,000 vs the long range forecasting which is under 50 making it not really scientifically valid imho.

I offered that up, and Tip refuted it.....feels the ability ENSO to force is compromised all around.

I am confident that this la nina is at least somewhat coupled, though.

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