• Member Statistics

    16,248
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Stoverseed
    Newest Member
    Stoverseed
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Have some gradient

Scooter.png

71-72 had snow right through March with lowest in January actually. At least locally. I'd take that match.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

71-72 had snow right through March with lowest in January actually. At least locally. I'd take that match.

Fits with the idea of mid winter suckage.

I could see a late season revival, but I don't think I am going to make my forecast dependent upon it. Last season it ruined what was otherwise a good forecast because it came a few weeks too late.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jury is still out with respect to the importance of QBO in my mind....I go both ways on that, Like the rev's sexuality.

I give very little importance to QBO

Kevs sexuality for sure is more ambiguous and curious than he portrays

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Gibbsfreeenergy said:

I give very little importance to QBO

Kevs sexuality for sure is more ambiguous and curious than he portrays

Yea....I wonder, though because the most prolific gradient seasons, 2007 and 1970 had very similar drastically negative QBOs. Certainly not a deal breaker, though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea....I wonder, though because the most prolific gradient seasons, 2007 and 1970 had very similar drastically negative QBOs. Certainly not a deal breaker, though.

1949-50 was a strong Nina gradient winter. However, QBO was negative that winter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, tamarack said:

In my NNJ days we had only one measurable October event, 0.7" on the 26th in 1962.  High at my place was a cool 34° and football practice was quite chilly, especially as Fridays were only walk-throughs, not much to help stay warm.  (Ironically, exactly one year later was my first game playing all the offensive and defensive snaps, in mid-80s heat - sweated off about 15 lb but that was one of only 2 wins for us that year.)

The winter of 2006-07 sucked here...it was great for LES belts and good for NNE.

Good for NNE from Jan. 14 on.  Until then met winter temps were running about +8 here and the 11"of snow was exactly 1/3 of the average thru 1/13.  The rest of that winter (thru mid April) brought another 84" snow with temps significantly BN.  Most schizophrenic winter of my experience.

2011, I had 4.25" of snow in October and lived within walking distance of Rutgers.  The rest of the season we got little more.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Have some gradient

Scooter.png

Tip just fainted from Hadley cell nightmares.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Tip just fainted from Hadley cell nightmares.

Ha ...  

I wonder how much that is being pulled/weighted by the last 10 of that 30 years...  Basically, wouldn't mind seeing that in 5 year intervals to gather an idea on trend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ...  

I wonder how much that is being pulled/weighted by the last 10 of that 30 years...  Basically, wouldn't mind seeing that in 5 year intervals to gather an idea on trend.

Here's the last 5 years compared to the previous 15....aside from any contribution by Hadley cell expansion, it's clear we're in a phase of much lower heights over the AO region. As we both know, that will enhance the height rises over the mid latitudes. Esp over Eastern North America and Europe.....exactly where we see the largest positive anomalies on that comparison.

 

 

2015-2020minus2000-2014.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not nightmares....they would be erotic in nature..perhaps even some nocturnal saturation of the column-

Forgive me if I am wrong as I'm still learning about the Hadley Cell Circulation and Global Angular Momentum on my own, but doesn't a typical La Nina induce the expansion of the Hadley Cell? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is a great graphic. Very telling. 

Here's 2000-2001 to 2014-2015 minus the previous 15 years.....we definitely had a much more favorable arctic in those years versus the late 1980s and 1990s on the whole.

 

 

2001-2015minus1986-2000.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/29/2020 at 11:56 AM, tamarack said:

Absolutely.  3 March storms, 56, 58, 60.  3 big 60-61 storms, DJF.  Jan 64 cold storm, thundersnow on 12/24/66 (and that whole winter), Mayor Lindsey storm 2/69.  Great stuff!

The March 1960 while not the most intense to me is near the top.   Forecast of 1-2 yielded to one of the great 20th century events!

Waiting for the December 1960 storm to move in and turning on the tv and seeing DC getting buried....we knew it was coming and it sure did!   JFK inaugural storm...cold and quick.   February 1961 some of the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen followed by a huge unfortunate pattern change.   January 64 I remember as really cold also during it.  12/24/66-perfect timing event!   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's 2000-2001 to 2014-2015 minus the previous 15 years.....we definitely had a much more favorable arctic in those years versus the late 1980s and 1990s on the whole.

 

 

2001-2015minus1986-2000.png

 Bring it back!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

The March 1960 while not the most intense to me is near the top.   Forecast of 1-2 yielded to one of the great 20th century events!

Waiting for the December 1960 storm to move in and turning on the tv and seeing DC getting buried....we knew it was coming and it sure did!   JFK inaugural storm...cold and quick.   February 1961 some of the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen followed by a huge unfortunate pattern change.   January 64 I remember as really cold also during it.  12/24/66-perfect timing event!   

March 1960 was 18" cold powder, and 8" was on the ground as we climbed aboard the buses for the midday release.  That Dec we watched the Giants and "Washington Football Team" trying to play with 8-10" on the ground/tarps.  (Field had 6 full width by 20 yard tarps, crew spent 45 minutes almost getting one moved off and the coaches said forget it.)  It was well after dark when the real stuff reached NNJ but slogging thru it next day - opener of NJ firearms deer season - was an adventure.  My friend and I slogged, my dad found a nice oak to lean against and dropped a little buck in its tracks, waited for us to return and handed me the knife.  Eight years later when I finally shot a deer, no one in sight, I was glad for the lesson.  The Jan/Feb storms were separated by more than two weeks of temps well below freezing - 16 consecutive days for NYC, longest such run on record - and depths around our place probably reached 45" as places within 15 miles recorded pack of 50"+, tallest in NJ records by nearly a foot.  By late Feb it was all gone.

12/24/66 I was heading home from hunting (squirrels/partridge) in SN+ when I heard a loud noise - sonic boom?  Couldn't be thunder, could it?   In a snowstorm?  Next boom made it clear, my 1st thundersnow and I've experienced only 2 since.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Forgive me if I am wrong as I'm still learning about the Hadley Cell Circulation and Global Angular Momentum on my own, but doesn't a typical La Nina induce the expansion of the Hadley Cell? 

Yep, mainly in low-mid troposphere.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, weathafella said:

The March 1960 while not the most intense to me is near the top.   Forecast of 1-2 yielded to one of the great 20th century events!

Waiting for the December 1960 storm to move in and turning on the tv and seeing DC getting buried....we knew it was coming and it sure did!   JFK inaugural storm...cold and quick.   February 1961 some of the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen followed by a huge unfortunate pattern change.   January 64 I remember as really cold also during it.  12/24/66-perfect timing event!   

I remember the morning of the March 3rd 1960 storm and the forecast was for snow turning to rain with moderating temperatures...I guess the weather bureau.didn't see the coastal developing and taking over the circulation...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fits with the idea of mid winter suckage.

I could see a late season revival, but I don't think I am going to make my forecast dependent upon it. Last season it ruined what was otherwise a good forecast because it came a few weeks too late.

Great. So another early season 4 week winter followed by trash where the good pattern is always 10 days away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Great. So another early season 4 week winter followed by trash where the good pattern is always 10 days away.

I could see a late season recovery, but I'm not baking that into the snow totals this go around....small changes in timing can destroy the outlook, as I saw last year. Gotta be careful after two consecutive snowfall forecasts busted too high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.