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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, seeing some signs Feb won't be much fun this season.

Feb is often pretty mild in Ninas. Sometimes we get away with it though.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb is often pretty mild in Ninas. Sometimes we get away with it though.

if a la nina winter starts cold Feb can be much milder...if a la nina winter starts mild Feb can be colder...some years had cold Decembers but mild Januarys like 2006 and 1989... some others were warm throughout or cold throughout...the maps below have 1954 by mistake...take that year out and the maps look the same...

 

cold jan warm feb jan.png

cold jan warm feb feb.png

warm jan cold feb feb.png

warm jan cold feb jan.png

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, seeing some signs Feb won't be much fun this season.

Doesn’t tropical forcing normally move to the maritime continent in February in most “typical” La Niñas?

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, seeing some signs Feb won't be much fun this season.

That looks like the expanded HC compression base line frankly

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I don’t think La Niña is forcing much. 

patterns may look coincidently like it from time to tine as the ‘unmanned firehouse’ happens to meander ephemerally thru the climate signal but tall N Pac arced jet’s likely to fold over either way from other emerging factors unrelated. The -neg EPOs intervals while ENSO forcing is subsumed and supplanted

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10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don’t think La Niña is forcing much. 

patterns may look coincidently like it from time to tine as the ‘unmanned firehouse’ happens to meander ephemerally thru the climate signal but tall N Pac arced jet’s likely to fold over either way from other emerging factors unrelated. The -neg EPOs intervals while ENSO forcing is subsumed and supplanted

Eh....I think that the MEI is a solid indicator, and its been pinned at -1 for two bi monthly periods. I agree with you regarding this trend for gradient saturation, and think its important to acknowledge it, but its also important to not get carried away and dismiss ENSO altogether.

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Should be interesting to see if this Nina gets a final surge into solid moderate over the next 2 weeks as there is a pretty big easterly burst forecasted in the trades. We actually have not had a Nina well into moderate territory (or stronger) since 2010-2011. This one would be a bit of a late bloomer like '07-'08 whereas '10-'11 was already rocking by mid/late summer.

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Other than a MJO passage in Aug, we have had forcing in the IO to about the maritime continent. Also, easterlies have been solid between roughly 135E to 135W. So Nina is certainly asserting itself on those metrics. You could argue there has been a slow adjustment east to the forcing, which would be good to see into November. 

 

https://wsienergy-product-content-prod-us-east-1.s3.amazonaws.com/1/graphics/subseasonal_diagnostics/SubSeasonal_LongitudePlots_vp200.ECMWF.anom.120d.5S-10N.201001100629.png?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIASYJFQFN3PQ47UOU5&Expires=1601644585&Signature=EJHPZYo677LyuRcVs%2Faqq5lS0Tk%3D

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Should be interesting to see if this Nina gets a final surge into solid moderate over the next 2 weeks as there is a pretty big easterly burst forecasted in the trades. We actually have not had a Nina well into moderate territory (or stronger) since 2010-2011. This one would be a bit of a late bloomer like '07-'08 whereas '10-'11 was already rocking by mid/late summer.

I was very confident that it would remain weak given climo, but it  may be moot, anyway given that MEI is already at the cusp of moderate. This is why I included some moderate years in my latest analog composite. I could see like a -1.0 to -1.1 peak, but I would be surprised at any more than that.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Other than a MJO passage in Aug, we have had forcing in the IO to about the maritime continent. Also, easterlies have been solid between roughly 135E to 135W. So Nina is certainly asserting itself on those metrics. You could argue there has been a slow adjustment east to the forcing, which would be good to see into November. 

 

https://wsienergy-product-content-prod-us-east-1.s3.amazonaws.com/1/graphics/subseasonal_diagnostics/SubSeasonal_LongitudePlots_vp200.ECMWF.anom.120d.5S-10N.201001100629.png?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIASYJFQFN3PQ47UOU5&Expires=1601644585&Signature=EJHPZYo677LyuRcVs%2Faqq5lS0Tk%3D

Yea, ENSO is def. forcing this season.

.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting given that the SST anomalies have been migrating westward, which is concerning.

Conflict there, so I wonder if we start to see that forcing halt and nudge westward, as I would expect.

Subsurface is really cold under about 130W, so it wouldn't surprised me if Nina 3 cools a lot over the next 4 weeks or so.

 

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I thought we might be descending into a solid -PDO this winter about 3 weeks ago, but that has dramatically reversed the past week or so. Not that I'm complaining, a neutral/positive PDO can be pretty good in a Nina (ala '95-'96, '00-'01)....we'll have to see where this one goes. A lot can change between now and December, but interesting to see nonetheless. First image is SSTA and the 2nd image is the 7 day change. That's a classic look for a +PDO, seeing that warm water wrap up along the W Canada and AK shoreline while it cools south of the Aleutians

 

 

10-1_SSTA.png

10-1_SSTA_change.png

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Subsurface is really cold under about 130W, so it wouldn't surprised me if Nina 3 cools a lot over the next 4 weeks or so.

 

I deleted that portion...sometimes I forget forcing isn't favored under the max SST anomalies during la nina, as it is in el nino.

I would like to see a shift back east to keep the forcing west.

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11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian has a long lasting La Nina that gradually becomes centered pretty far West. It trended stronger than before. Nino 4 would stay cold for a long time in this depiction - that hasn't happened in close to a decade.

The monthly sea surface temperature readings for the September monthlies should look a lot like 2007.

On the Canadian, the cold ring by NW North America tries to develop around the warm tongue east of Japan. That'd be a pretty healthy and canonical -PDO, which is a pretty warm signal for the SE. Good for the NW to be cold. Pretty strong dry signal in the SW, especially Fall and Spring, locally it peaks as an indicator in November and May.

Image

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I thought we might be descending into a solid -PDO this winter about 3 weeks ago, but that has dramatically reversed the past week or so. Not that I'm complaining, a neutral/positive PDO can be pretty good in a Nina (ala '95-'96, '00-'01)....we'll have to see where this one goes. A lot can change between now and December, but interesting to see nonetheless. First image is SSTA and the 2nd image is the 7 day change. That's a classic look for a +PDO, seeing that warm water wrap up along the W Canada and AK shoreline while it cools south of the Aleutians

 

 

10-1_SSTA.png

10-1_SSTA_change.png

Hmm......

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Hmm......

Yeah....a lot can still change obviously. But it's far from a lock we have a solid -PDO.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh....I think that the MEI is a solid indicator, and its been pinned at -1 for two bi monthly periods. I agree with you regarding this trend for gradient saturation, and think its important to acknowledge it, but its also important to not get carried away and dismiss ENSO altogether.

Hopefully no one ever did that - 

...no, I've averred often in the past and over years that there are no 1::1 correlations in these teleconnectors: Earth, Air or Sea... certainly not in how they interact and cause synergistic outcomes.  

Having said that, that's not so one can go, "phew, I can still be ENSO reliant" - it would be unwise to weight the 300 year span of ENSO vs the climate impact model of the present era and going forward.  How much so?  That's your art - not mine.  

There were papers written about the recent warm ENSO events failing to materialize along expected climate impact routes... (they're out there in edu repositories - ) This isn't just my theoretical ranting - I am trying to bring this to general audience attention and have been supplying links - but... you know how that goes ..old habits - anytime there are abruptly dissenting points of views, the tribe knee-jerks in incredulity if not vitriolic stake-burning.  Lol.. But, this is more like the internet causing bubble interpretations that are self-re-enforcing, where the agencies that own the information closer to the reality ...are often left on a metaphoric island while the party boat of faux ideology and those that act upon those doctrines ...sails away toward an enabling horizon where Trump demagoguery is somehow construed as a proactive vision for Humanity.... 

Just kidding - 

No, but ...as usual, the reality is a matter of fluid scales and degrees of mitigation - that's how this works.  The ENSOs are "being" muted - they are not "muted"

Sometimes it is seemingly absolute ( though would not be...); sometimes the limitation being observed appears to not be in play at all ( but it still is...). Everything is being subsumed or supplanted to some amount ...but above and below thresholds of observability. 

It's this simple:  If the HC expands too far beyond the ENSO warm(cool) band, that weakens the ENSO as a "direct" trigger ... It probably becomes more "indirect" in that sense... the triggering gradient zone shifts polarward and the ENSO is part of the HC integration ...

But, that offers all kinds of f-up crazy shit like sped up flow ( ding ding ding ...!) and arc PAC jets that tumble over and create unusually high frequency of -EPO ridge pulsations... enhancing cold loading at transition seasons... all this stuff can be mechanically rooted.  The thing is... the heart of winter the polar hemisphere bottoms out seasonally and then the gradient and wind saturation becomes dominant as an impetus and ... well -  

My assertion of the NINA ...was kind of snarky for one. But not having much forcing is based upon a simple notion of arithmetic thinking - if the NINA is less than major, ...or, less than moderate, and in keeping with the above essence ...it should be more lost in the muting effect of the HC's having engulfed it so much so that it can't "trigger" through a direct gradient response ( which IS the circuitry) .

I don't have any ego horses in this race and don't give a shit if I am wrong - but...I think this stuff offers a nice ( at least) entry explanation as why NCEP, NASA and Farm Joe's seasonal outlooks since 2000 have all been increasingly stinking pieces of shit...  No one has forecasted ground-based airline velocity records and jet speeds so ludicrous as to wonder if the planetary rotation rate night even be getting effected by atmospheric torsional feedbacks!  (Sarcasm) ...  But what has become routine over the last 10 years... Yet, every autumn the same seasonal logic is gearing expectations .. okay.

 

 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Hmm......

To follow up with what raindancewx said, I noticed ENSO region 4 the other day, I can’t remember when it’s been consistently this cold. The models are projecting it to stay quite cold into winter....

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@Typhoon Tip

 

My assertion of the NINA ...was kind of snarky for one. But not having much forcing is based upon a simple notion of arithmetic thinking - if the NINA is less than major, ...or, less than moderate, and in keeping with the above essence ...it should be more lost in the muting effect of the HC's having engulfed it so much so that it can't "trigger" through a direct gradient response ( which IS the circuitry) .

My issue is that this isn't a marginal ENSO event, such as the last two successive warm events....MEI is and has been pinned at  minus1 for two bi-monthly periods, regardless of where ONI peaks. My guess it will be on the cusp of official moderate, at least....

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22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

To follow up with what raindancewx said, I noticed ENSO region 4 the other day, I can’t remember when it’s been consistently this cold. The models are projecting it to stay quite cold into winter....

Right...and I don't think that is good for the east coast, as it should induce forcing further east with time.

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What do the composite winters look like if we take the current SST pattern with similar QBO numbers? Nevermind strength, just curious about SST anomalies and the current QBO outlook.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What do the composite winters look like if we take the current SST pattern with similar QBO numbers? Nevermind strength, just curious about SST anomalies and the current QBO outlook.

I think 2008 is a pretty good match with respect to QBO....that is the chink in the 2007 armor, though.

Raindance was claiming that direction of QBO trend is as important as state, which I am not so sure about...I asked for evidence, but never got a response.

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I'd say best match for ENSO/QBO are 2008-2009, 1971-1972, 2016-2017 in that order.....maybe 1975-1976, 2010, 2011, and 1985-1986 in the next tier.

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Typhoon Tip

 

My assertion of the NINA ...was kind of snarky for one. But not having much forcing is based upon a simple notion of arithmetic thinking - if the NINA is less than major, ...or, less than moderate, and in keeping with the above essence ...it should be more lost in the muting effect of the HC's having engulfed it so much so that it can't "trigger" through a direct gradient response ( which IS the circuitry) .

My issue that this isn't a marginal ENSO event, such as the last two successive warm events....MEI is and had been pinned at 1 for two bi-monthly periods, regardless of where ONI peaks. My guess it will be on the cusp of official moderate, at least....

You know... perhaps that is related to why the Atlantic Hurricane season ( thus far...but inevitably will end this way ...) suffered odd-ball  MDR truncation of TC genesis due to easterly shear anomalies... 

In that sense ...and strengthened HC is driving unusually strong easterly trades due to it's growing mechanical influence on the global eddy - ... in other words, an SST modulation and sea-surface stress factor causing that...and may be mimicking a La Nina more so than a real La Nina.  

Maybe this is all backing us into a nice hypothesis for what the ENSO variance - it's always just been a kind of oscillatory HC ebb and tide in that particular atmospheric mode.  When it is storng... easterlies tend to increase and that moves warm air west across the basin...  and vice versa - ... heh.

 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd say best match for ENSO/QBO are 2008-2009, 1971-1972, 2016-2017 in that order.....maybe 1975-1976, 2010, 2011, and 1985-1986 in the next tier.

Agree....3 out of my 7 composite seasons.

I think 2008-09 is a good analog, and is maybe the ceiling for this season if the NAO doesn't go to crap.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree....3 out of my 7 composite seasons.

I think 2008-09 is a good analog, and is maybe the ceiling for this season if the NAO doesn't go to crap.

95-96 QBO started positive then went negative during winter right?

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