C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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10 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My preference would be to get through April without ever sniffing 80. I would love to see every day in the 50s and 60s, maybe an occasional 70 or so. That's just me. I hate to see early heat and humidity. We have months and months of that crap in our future. That is inevitable. We can all wish/hope to get what we consider to be pleasant early Spring weather, and that certainly is subjective. Wont change a thing or make it any more or less likely to occur. Not sure why anyone would engage in arguments over such things. Quite absurd.

We hit 76/65 down here in S Cen TX today. Dewpoint has been a pleasant 65 for a couple days now. We experienced a few of those back on Jan and Feb lol. The spring warmth is coming pretty early for us too.

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Bingo...

A WAG about next year isn’t worth much. I’m not claiming it is. I’ve been transparent that it’s just a wag based on probabilities and trends.  That said the probabilities favor a below avg winter. Of course that’s true EVERY year.  But mostly I find it amusing that this bothers Mersky so much. 

could you troll him in banter at least? 

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could you troll him in banter at least? 
There is no winter so every thread is banter right now till next non winter
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19 minutes ago, mappy said:

could you troll him in banter at least? 

That last post definitely belonged in banter. Sorry. The discussion with Maestro and ji was legit though. It is just a wag but it is my best guess ATT. It’s not worth much but the probabilities are what they are. I wasn’t making those posts JUST to troll Mersky...but if it bothers him that’s just an added bonus. 

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9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS...Lucy has put the football down again.

gfs-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype-4014400.png

gfs-deterministic-ma-total_snow_kuchera-4057600.png

gfs-deterministic-ma-z500_anom-4014400.png

"Again"? I'm not sure there have been many footballs put down in the first place, lol I guess the only remotely close "football" was a few weeks ago...and even that was lower percentage at the start with no EURO support. And I'm almost fully expecting you to say eps says no in a couple hours (but I hope you spare us the maps, lol...why ya torture yourself and us with those is beyond me...WHY?)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

"Again"? I'm not sure there have been many footballs put down in the first place, lol And I'm almost fully expecting you to say eps says no in a couple hours (but I hope you spare us the maps, lol...why ya torture yourself and us with those is beyond me...WHY?)

I have not posted maps in almost a day...but your right: Dr. No is on its way!

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12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I have not posted maps in almost a day...but your right: Dr. No is on its way!

I can see something like this happening what with the battle of the air masses in March. Probably not of course but it's trending in the right direction. Something to track at least for a few hours.

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On 3/3/2020 at 11:39 AM, Baltimorewx said:

I suppose ~March 12 is still worth watching...verbatim GFS tracks the low right over us but any adjustment in heights/better blocking and maybe we get thrown a bone

For the record..See Im not always negative;):lol:...This is the one!  192 hr is an absolute beaut though...Just puking snow

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18 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My preference would be to get through April without ever sniffing 80. I would love to see every day in the 50s and 60s, maybe an occasional 70 or so. That's just me. I hate to see early heat and humidity. We have months and months of that crap in our future. That is inevitable. We can all wish/hope to get what we consider to be pleasant early Spring weather, and that certainly is subjective. Wont change a thing or make it any more or less likely to occur. Not sure why anyone would engage in arguments over such things. Quite absurd.

<psu>

The weather doesn't care what you want. I don't know why you worry about what the weather will do, but if it affects you so much maybe you need another hobby.

</psu>

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14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Good to see that yall are not biting on this so much.  I expected 5 more pages after the GFS.  I'm proud of yall.  

I’m all in. Gonna post it on Facebook as soon as I can.

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To give you an idea how likely the above GFS outcome is...

Boston's highest all time snowfall record sits at 27.6". This storm dumps almost double that at almost 53". 

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

12Z GEFS does give some support to the operational run.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-z500_anom-4036000.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_ge_3-4208800.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel-4208800.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-total_snow_10to1-4208800.png

Lol. For being March thats a pretty good esembles run. 

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To give you an idea how likely the above GFS outcome is...

Boston's highest all time snowfall record sits at 27.6". This storm dumps almost double that at almost 53". 

Superstorm 2020.  Open a thread.  Actually the WB 12Z Canadian operational has a big storm (not snow) late next week as well for us.

gem-all-east-z500_anom-4187200.png

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To give you an idea how likely the above GFS outcome is...

Boston's highest all time snowfall record sits at 27.6". This storm dumps almost double that at almost 53". 

So you’re telling me there’s a chance...

Ok the crazy stupid over amplified solution aside I suppose there is always the chance at something. The 1976 scenario. That year was very similar pattern and results then our area got a foot of snow mid March from a storm that has no business working in a crap pattern. So there is always that fluke chance...but my money is in this just being one more kick to the nads. 

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Superstorm 2020.  Open a thread.  Actually the Canadian operational has a big storm (not snow) late next week as well for us.

Nah, not at 7/8 days in a progressive flow. Get it inside of 3 days I might bite. :lol:

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Nah, not at 7/8 days in a progressive flow. Get it inside of 3 days I might bite. :lol:

Throw in a -NAO a 50/50 low, a -epo, a PNA ridge, and the EURO and I'd bite.

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6 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I only have 24 hr maps but it appears the EURO is too far north but has the storm...984 over NYC at 216

Correct.   Waaaay too far north and warm. Rain for all except Maine.  

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10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I only have 24 hr maps but it appears the EURO is too far north but has the storm...984 over NYC at 216

Yup....Interesting how different the WB GFS and EURO maps are at 18Z Thursday, but almost on top of each other at 18Z Friday.  I would also note that the EURO did not have the storm at 0Z.

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4036000.png

gfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4036000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4122400.png

gfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4122400.png

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7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I only have 24 hr maps but it appears the EURO is too far north but has the storm...984 over NYC at 216

So the preponderance of evidence has a storm there but its north and warm.... and the one guidance that has a known severe cold bias is cold/south...hmmm... wonder what is going to happen.  

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11 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I only have 24 hr maps but it appears the EURO is too far north but has the storm...984 over NYC at 216

 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So the preponderance of evidence has a storm there but its north and warm.... and the one guidance that has a known severe cold bias is cold/south...hmmm... wonder what is going to happen.  

We just need luck on Friday, the 13th....come on now!!! Our luck has been so bad this winter, it would be very ironic if we get some good luck next Friday.

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20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

 

We just need luck on Friday, the 13th....come on now!!! Our luck has been so bad this winter, it would be very ironic if we get some good luck next Friday.

It would be super incredible if we get some wound up beast that pummels the whole east coast. March 13. Yeah ...

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So the preponderance of evidence has a storm there but its north and warm.... and the one guidance that has a known severe cold bias is cold/south...hmmm... wonder what is going to happen.  

I mean, I am not expecting anything either in terms of snow here, but at least it's noteworthy that everything at least has the storm this far out.  Maybe someone will score somewhere in the northeast with this.

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