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March Medium/Long Range Disco

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It's all good PSU . Probably see some conversation flakes still .It was low chance butt.....

Eps has the NAO and AO going negative end of March.  That's when the  party finally begins :D.

Palm Sunday snowstorm redux :mapsnow:

The period right around the end of March early April has some chance at a fluke frozen event. The pattern isn’t awful.  We have had plenty of minor snows into early April. But history suggests it will likely require getting hit flush and even then will be marginal and likely not significant. Not a good long lead tracking scenario. But not ruling out seeing more flakes. 

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CMC with a burst of snow overnight Sunday for the far northern areas.  Looks like most guidance suggesting at least a short period of wet snow for far nw locations . Maybe a trash can topper for some 

 

gem-all-dc-instant_ptype-4954000.png

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Return flow will erode pretty quick as the day wears on tomorrow.  But, pretty low dews across the area at 12z sun....a little slower in pushing this drier air back north could give a little surprise to some higher elevations in counties along the MD line...

iEO01Gi.png

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On 3/20/2020 at 2:23 PM, losetoa6 said:

It's all good PSU . Probably see some conversation flakes still .It was low chance butt.....

Eps has the NAO and AO going negative end of March.  That's when the  party finally begins :D.

Palm Sunday snowstorm redux :mapsnow:

I just wanna know why, man...Been like 9 or 10 years of this mess. Is this simply climo now? Smh I hope not...I hope what seems to be a decadal cycle will break the other way for us soon...I mean this is ridiculous. 

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Might not verify, but given it is Spring, good chance it will. Maybe one day we will again see a HL h5  look like this when it actually matters.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_53.png

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21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Might not verify, but given it is Spring, good chance it will. Maybe one day we will again see a HL h5  look like this when it actually matters.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_53.png

I'll take that.  Anything to delay the start of mowing season right now.

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I'll take that.  Anything to delay the start of mowing season right now.

If I can get the mower going, I will mow today for the first time. Mostly to whack the chickweed down so the emerging grass can better choke it out.

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15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If I can get the mower going, I will mow today for the first time. Mostly to whack the chickweed down so the emerging grass can better choke it out.

That's my plan today. Hopefully get it started . Check the oil, put air in the tires.

Take my snowblower out of my garage (never used it this winter) and put it back in my storage room under my garage.

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Mmmm do I need to get up super early tomorrow to see some flakes?

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3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Might not verify, but given it is Spring, good chance it will. Maybe one day we will again see a HL h5  look like this when it actually matters.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_53.png

I think the pacific winter base state pattern has been destructive to getting NAO blocking.  In general we have seen a persistent pac ridge.  (Notice there the pac ridge is finally eradicated and up goes the NAO ridge). That ridge tightens the thermal gradient to its north promoting a faster northern jet that will fight attempts to transport heat poleward thus prevents ridging.  At times in the last 7 years that ridge shifted north enough that it created a favorable epo pattern.  But other than that the only winter NAO blocking we’ve had in the last 7 years was during the super nino and very late in 2018 following a SSW that coupled with the TPV.   So long as a huge pacific ridge is the dominant pattern it doesn’t help. There is a correlation between the warm mjo phases, that pac ridge, and +NAO.  Unfortunately there has been some speculation that longer term climate changes might be driving the tendency for that dominant configuration.  I’m skeptical it lasts that much longer but we will see. 

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45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the pacific winter base state pattern has been destructive to getting NAO blocking.  In general we have seen a persistent pac ridge.  (Notice there the pac ridge is finally eradicated and up goes the NAO ridge). That ridge tightens the thermal gradient to its north promoting a faster northern jet that will fight attempts to transport heat poleward thus prevents ridging.  At times in the last 7 years that ridge shifted north enough that it created a favorable epo pattern.  But other than that the only winter NAO blocking we’ve had in the last 7 years was during the super nino and very late in 2018 following a SSW that coupled with the TPV.   So long as a huge pacific ridge is the dominant pattern it doesn’t help. There is a correlation between the warm mjo phases, that pac ridge, and +NAO.  Unfortunately there has been some speculation that longer term climate changes might be driving the tendency for that dominant configuration.  I’m skeptical it lasts that much longer but we will see. 

I hope your skepticism is right. Because otherwise...wouldn't that kinda endanger our overall snowfall chances in the future? (I mean I guess we'd have to rely on other factors...) But as you and others have indicated, perhaps it is too early to tell whether this trend will continue for years to come--particularly given the somewhat decadal pattern we've seen in our records.

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hope your skepticism is right. Because otherwise...wouldn't that kinda endanger our overall snowfall chances in the future? (I mean I guess we'd have to rely on other factors...) But as you and others have indicated, perhaps it is too early to tell whether this trend will continue for years to come--particularly given the somewhat decadal pattern we've seen in our records.

Remember this-  we want a -AO above all. If the AO is only weakly positive, then a favorably placed EPO ridge can compensate. When we have a ++AO like this winter, we are pretty well fukked no matter what. There may well be a correlation between that and the tropical forcing tendencies, and if what psu is suggesting becomes the base state for winters going forward, get used to NC winters here. 

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hope your skepticism is right. Because otherwise...wouldn't that kinda endanger our overall snowfall chances in the future? (I mean I guess we'd have to rely on other factors...) But as you and others have indicated, perhaps it is too early to tell whether this trend will continue for years to come--particularly given the somewhat decadal pattern we've seen in our records.

We have no control over it so just relax and see what happens. If this basic pac base state persists in the means another 3-4 years at that point I would begin to accept maybe it’s a permanent (or semi permanent) climate shift. At that point if you want to see snow regularly in winter you know you need to move north.  I’m skeptical this is truly a permanent shift. We are due for a shift in the AO base state. If we don’t see that in the next handful of years then I would worry. 

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Just looked at the Eps and around day 8/9 timeframe pretty decent neg nao coupled with a strong 50/50 look. If there's any chance of a last winter  hurrah ( or only hurrah for some lol)I'd think that would be it . 

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34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just looked at the Eps and around day 8/9 timeframe pretty decent neg nao coupled with a strong 50/50 look. If there's any chance of a last winter  hurrah ( or only hurrah for some lol)I'd think that would be it . 

Time for another perfect track rain storm like yesterday and tomorrow.  That was the easiest call I ever made. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Time for another perfect track rain storm like yesterday and tomorrow.  That was the easiest call I ever made. 

Probably.  Actually yesterday ended up much drier then as close as 36 hours before when 1 inch amounts were plenty on guidance. 

Let's bring this last coastal rain bomb home together :lol: . Preferably a 970 mb off OC 

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14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Probably.  Actually yesterday ended up much drier then as close as 36 hours before when 1 inch amounts were plenty on guidance. 

Let's bring this last coastal rain bomb home together :lol: . Preferably a 970 mb off OC 

If yesterday's event had happened a month or so earlier, in another winter, I would have had 10" of snow here.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If yesterday's event had happened a month or so earlier, in another winter, I would have had 10" of snow here.

I would have gotten 2 inches ( fringed:ph34r:)

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27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Infuriating. Man I hope this is a decadal trend and not some permanent change because of a different climate or whatever...year after year, smh Can't give us jack diddly of this one time in winter lately...If it ever comes back when it's supposed to, we had better take it all in!! I swear it's like something pushing a button to troll us, lol I hope this get "fixed" some time in the next winter or two...

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I would have gotten 2 inches ( fringed:ph34r:)

Keep in mind in winter with a colder thermal gradient to create more WAA lift there would have been a more consolidated precip shield. We likely would have done better. 

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Infuriating. Man I hope this is a decadal trend and not some permanent change because of a different climate or whatever...year after year, smh Can't give us jack diddly of this one time in winter lately...If it ever comes back when it's supposed to, we had better take it all in!! I swear it's like something pushing a button to troll us, lol I hope this get "fixed" some time in the next winter or two...

Stop torturing yourself. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Stop torturing yourself. 

I'm not torturing me, the stupid crap going on in the atmosphere is. That graphic is infuriating, it's like getting robbed and the thief just keeps laughing in your face. The feeling of being unfairly passed up for a little extra happiness...How do you not be upset at that graphic? I don't care if it's happened 6 or 7 years in a row...it's still frustrating even if expected (especially given how the winter went). Next year we've earned better, imo...been through enough with this mess.

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Euro day8-9 has a cutoff and rainstorm. Looks similar to April 2007.. 

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