Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

That’s such a drastic change/demonstratively different I’m inclined to argue that we’re looking at a completely different system at this point; like the models were just wrong about everything and then we transition right into a new scenario altogether. It just happened to be fitting into the same timeframe. We are correcting for two different streams simultaneously ... coincident in time  

 Bye-bye southern stream hello new from the North but we’ll see if it has legs

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gonna need a new February thread once we get there.  This one is long.

You should just call these what they really are - support group thread 1 ...support group thread 2… Thread 3 thread 4 ..5 Into infinity

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, Albert A Clipper said:

March...

2021

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

At this point hope for a SSWA. We need a full scale pattern change or the curtains are closing

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes with 40’s thru day 10. Guess a lot watch that channel 

[ORH_wxman]

Next week is trending a lot flatter. Might end up frozen for NNE at least...but some runs try and keep SNE frozen too

[weatherwiz]

9 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gonna need a new February thread once we get there.  This one is long.

Not even February yet and it's already 61 pages  

[EastonSN+]

Just looked at the CFS monthlies. March is gonna rock!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a

[512high]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just looked at the CFS monthlies. March is gonna rock!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a

Who wants it in March? Keep pushing it back, Was January (late) February 7-15 or so, now March..........not saying we won't have a large event, but hell this winter sucks. Days are longer, whatever

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 512high said:

Who wants it in March? Keep pushing it back, Was January (late) February 7-15 or so, now March..........not saying we won't have a large event, but hell this winter sucks. Days are longer, whatever

Why isn’t February going to be good? Maybe I missed something but I didn’t see any big changes in guidance. 

 

[512high]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Why isn’t February going to be good? Maybe I missed something but I didn’t see any big changes in guidance. 

 

No wasn't directed to you, I just saw EastonSN say march is going to rock....., I just see a Mild week next week, hoping it's temporary , it seems that when  a week or month looks cold, we get close, and its gone or "next month", nothing towards you or anyone, 

[Spanks45]

Just now, 512high said:

No wasn't directed to you, I just saw EastonSN say march is going to rock....., I just see a Mild week next week, hoping it's temporary , it seems that when  a week or month looks cold, we get close, and its gone or "next month", nothing towards you or anyone, 

If it is going to rain next week, I hope it "torches". Pretty sure the past 2 Februarys have had 70s, so why not. But that boundary has been shifting south, so probably end up cloudy with drizzle and 30s....

[Torch Tiger]

dug up from a mid-Atlantic weenie thread

 

Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) Tweeted:
Grand Planetary wave alignment forecasted by Euro ensembles has similaritis to the week of the Legendary March 1993, displaced a bit west  Similar more often than not tho, does not produce the same, but pattern certainly looks more wintery 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

dug up from a mid-Atlantic weenie thread

 

Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) Tweeted:
Grand Planetary wave alignment forecasted by Euro ensembles has similaritis to the week of the Legendary March 1993, displaced a bit west  Similar more often than not tho, does not produce the same, but pattern certainly looks more wintery 

This type of stuff pisses me off...

why even post a comparison to March of 1993 if you're going to say "oh but its unlikely"

This happens on twitter a ton...there will be a post "Oh here's the GFS solution and snow map for D11 showing potential for 20-30''...but it's extremely unlikely to happen"

Like what's the point of the post??? This does nothing but create hype and create a false sense...it's garbage like this which is leading the public to lose faith in meteorologists. I have a friend who is in the landscaping business and he is very in-tune with the weather...checks information across all platforms, asks for my feedback, and he'll show me stuff which he comes across and he says to me...he talks to alot of people in the business (landscaping) and they get pissed when they come across information like that. 

[Lava Rock]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes with 40’s thru day 10. Guess a lot watch that channel 

freakin blows.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why isn’t February going to be good? Maybe I missed something but I didn’t see any big changes in guidance. 

 

Maybe you can talk me off the ledge, however for southern New England we are starring at a strongly positive AO, trending positive NAO, trending negative PNA and an MJO that is stuck in the warm phases.

Northern New England can do fine with this type of gradient, however with the resulting SE ridge showing up on the GEFS and GEPS I can definitely see where SNE is on the wrong side of the gradient.

What mechanism can overcome this? The only thing I can think of is a deeply negative well positioned EPO ridge. Possible? Yes but likely? I am not sure as I am not a met. I hope so.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Maybe you can talk me off the ledge, however for southern New England we are starring at a strongly positive AO, trending positive NAO, trending negative PNA and an MJO that is stuck in the warm phases.

Northern New England can do fine with this type of gradient, however with the resulting SE ridge showing up on the GEFS and GEPS I can definitely see where SNE is on the wrong side of the gradient.

What mechanism can overcome this? The only thing I can think of is a deeply negative well positioned EPO ridge. Possible? Yes but likely? I am not sure as I am not a met. I hope so.

We keep kicking the can on the -epo also. The February 5-9th period was supposed to be below normal but now it’s more after the 9/10th. With the mjo in unfavorable phases the -pna could very easily be worst as we get closer with a stronger southeast ridge. Granted sne can obviously do better in a gradient then my location. I guess I’m looking for some positivity also lol.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We keep kicking the can on the -epo also. The February 5-9th period was supposed to be below normal but now it’s more after the 9/10th. With the mjo in unfavorable phases the -pna could very easily be worst as we get closer with a stronger southeast ridge. Granted sne can obviously do better in a gradient then my location. I guess I’m looking for some positivity also lol.

Thanks you have been spot on accurate with winter along with Bluewave and Isotherm. Even though there are some differences to last year, the results are largely the same. March always holds promise due to shortening wavelengths so I have not given up on something happening. I know some have predicted a favorable NAO helping to offset the Pacific, however if the ensembles are correct it's not happening soon.

I would be excited big I resided in upstate New York or northern New England due to gradient.

[BombsAway1288]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes with 40’s thru day 10. Guess a lot watch that channel 

Not sure what the hate is on Noyes. I know it's not you but several others just seem to dismiss him like he doesn't know what he's talking about. Just because he isn't a weenie on-air hyping every piece of energy that shows up on the Euro/GFS and is professional, doesn't make him wrong all the time. And for the record, I watch both WCVB and NBC10 mainly because of their mets and how good they are. Noyes/Kelly are some of the best in the local business, along with Harvey of course.

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks you have been spot on accurate with winter along with Bluewave and Isotherm. Even though there are some differences to last year, the results are largely the same. March always holds promise due to shortening wavelengths so I have not given up on something happening. I know some have predicted a favorable NAO helping to offset the Pacific, however if the ensembles are correct it's not happening soon.

Thanks. But I think I’m going to bust on the cold outbreak for the 6th. The strat hit has weakened so the air is more modified. In March p2-5 are cold and it looks like the mjo wants to hang there because of the warm waters near Australia. We would still need a -epo for a cold March which I hope shows up sooner then later. 
 

I wouldn’t look for a -nao anytime soon with the current PV orientation. Perhaps that changes closer to March if we can blow this Pv up. That being said, we are not done with snow. Something will work out sooner then late r. Especially, for areas further north then me. 

[Digityman]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

why even post a comparison to March of 1993 if you're going to say "oh but its unlikely"

I'm sure you are tongue-in-cheek, but to me it's because it's not about being accurate or right, or hell even weather half the time.   It's about attention, likes and shares.   People need flash and pizzazz or their attention wains only to be given to the next ostentatious thing.    

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Digityman said:

I'm sure you are tongue-in-cheek, but to me it's because it's not about being accurate or right, or hell even weather half the time.   It's about attention, likes and shares.   People need flash and pizzazz or their attention wains only to be given to the next ostentatious thing.    

This is exactly what it is...excellent post. 

The way social media works in the weather world is if you post about cold/snow happening...you'll get thousands of likes, shares, interactions, and follows. Meanwhile, those who don't hype and explain the situation exactly at is may only get several likes and minimal interaction. 

[Great Snow 1717]

33 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Not sure what the hate is on Noyes. I know it's not you but several others just seem to dismiss him like he doesn't know what he's talking about. Just because he isn't a weenie on-air hyping every piece of energy that shows up on the Euro/GFS and is professional, doesn't make him wrong all the time. And for the record, I watch both WCVB and NBC10 mainly because of their mets and how good they are. Noyes/Kelly are some of the best in the local business, along with Harvey of course.

Agree

[Damage In Tolland]

55 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Not sure what the hate is on Noyes. I know it's not you but several others just seem to dismiss him like he doesn't know what he's talking about. Just because he isn't a weenie on-air hyping every piece of energy that shows up on the Euro/GFS and is professional, doesn't make him wrong all the time. And for the record, I watch both WCVB and NBC10 mainly because of their mets and how good they are. Noyes/Kelly are some of the best in the local business, along with Harvey of course.

I like him and think he’s a very good met. There’s others on here who do not like him for various reasons . Will went to Cornell with him. Said Noyes was very helpful to him as a freshman. He’s even developed his own in house model at NECN.

[Snowcrazed71]

So I have a question regarding next week. Meteorologist here in Connecticut NBC you saying that we're going to have a warm-up Tuesday Wednesday into the 50s. Our favorite met, Henry M is saying that we're going to get colder and snow weird next week.( yeah yeah.. I already see the eye rolls and shoulder shrugs..lol ). Anyway, thoughts on this? Finally going to get into a snowy or wintry pattern next week. End of next week?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So I have a question regarding next week. Meteorologist here in Connecticut NBC you saying that we're going to have a warm-up Tuesday Wednesday into the 50s. Our favorite met, Henry M is saying that we're going to get colder and snow weird next week.( yeah yeah.. I already see the eye rolls and shoulder shrugs..lol ). Anyway, thoughts on this? Finally going to get into a snowy or wintry pattern next week. End of next week?

It’s possible next week has a gradient type system where we’re north of the gradient. More likely in NNE but the overall trend the pst few days has been to flatten the system mid-week. 

Trend could easily reverse or continue. We probably won’t know more until we clear out the weekend garbage too. 

[Bostonseminole]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree

Noyes is great, I remember he would do video's when big storms would come showing the different models, not sure if he still does that now.

[Hazey]

Looks like there will be another day 10 threat to track. Active pattern continues

[Baroclinic Zone]

7 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Looks like there will be another day 10 threat to track. Active pattern continues

Cashing in there while it's been a dry/boring month here.  Only 1.63" of precip the entire month, with 1/2 of that coming from the rains on the 25th.

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I like him and think he’s a very good met. There’s others on here who do not like him for various reasons . Will went to Cornell with him. Said Noyes was very helpful to him as a freshman. He’s even developed his own in house model at NECN.

Had no idea that he developed that himself. Pretty impressive. They use it all the time on-air