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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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 I want a 945mb bomb at the benchmark so bad.  Watch the models be consistent this go around and it will be 250 miles southwest of where we need it to be.  We don't want it to occlude before it reaches the benchmark.  If we have any say, it will occlude after upon reaching the benchmark.

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6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

 I want a 945mb bomb at the benchmark so bad.  Watch the models be consistent this go around and it will be 250 miles southwest of where we need it to be.  We don't want it to occlude before it reaches the benchmark.  If we have any say, it will occlude after upon reaching the benchmark.

It might occlude over your fanny

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38 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

 I want a 945mb bomb at the benchmark so bad.  Watch the models be consistent this go around and it will be 250 miles southwest of where we need it to be.  We don't want it to occlude before it reaches the benchmark.  If we have any say, it will occlude after upon reaching the benchmark.

Not guarantee that a track like that would be snow this season.

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1 minute ago, Albert A Clipper said:

way to set the bar super low, it can only get better from here!

Lol yup...we're learning fast now.  That bomb is a fantasy anyway.  It'll be gone next run...or a cutter.   Pipe dream for sure.  Just eye candy that's all it is now.  I mean 10 days out...what can go wrong?   

 

Euro won't have anything close to that GFS depiction...not that the Euro hasn't had it's flops of late too...

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Although a storm of that magnitude would turn this Crap season around on a Dime...for all.  Too bad it's not 4 days away...and even then it would be iffy in this season.

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EPS has a signal for something that could either be 1/31 or 2/1....or even 2/2 as a second system.....multiple shortwaves in the flow. You could even see it on the OP when it tried to give us something 1/31 before that redeveloper at D10 on 2/2.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a signal for something that could either be 1/31 or 2/1....or even 2/2 as a second system.....multiple shortwaves in the flow. You could even see it on the OP when it tried to give us something 1/31 before that redeveloper at D10 on 2/2.

All you can ask for is chances maybe something breaks in our favor.

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a signal for something that could either be 1/31 or 2/1....or even 2/2 as a second system.....multiple shortwaves in the flow. You could even see it on the OP when it tried to give us something 1/31 before that redeveloper at D10 on 2/2.

Pattern looks more favorable around that time with ridging out west.  Better cold feed.  See if it holds.

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a signal for something that could either be 1/31 or 2/1....or even 2/2 as a second system.....multiple shortwaves in the flow. You could even see it on the OP when it tried to give us something 1/31 before that redeveloper at D10 on 2/2.

Definitely the op keeping the shortwaves distinct features rather than the GFS that's a phase on phase on phase. 

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The euro ensembles definitely still look a lot better going into early February. No negative changes today. In fact, there's early signs of a -NAO in the 11-15...first time we've seen that in a while. 

But the ball really gets rolling first with the PNA ridging out west around d7-8. EPO isn't overly robust but it's no longer overly hostile by D10-11. 

 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro ensembles definitely still look a lot better going into early February. No negative changes today. In fact, there's early signs of a -NAO in the 11-15...first time we've seen that in a while. 

But the ball really gets rolling first with the PNA ridging out west around d7-8. EPO isn't overly robust but it's no longer overly hostile by D10-11. 

 

Yeah, starts kicking that vortex out around the 3rd as the Hudson ridge moves closer to Greenland. 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro ensembles definitely still look a lot better going into early February. No negative changes today. In fact, there's early signs of a -NAO in the 11-15...first time we've seen that in a while. 

But the ball really gets rolling first with the PNA ridging out west around d7-8. EPO isn't overly robust but it's no longer overly hostile by D10-11. 

 

Perhaps a dumb question....but do you think this is legit?  Or another head-fake?  I know you're not a fortune teller, but is there anything here that makes you think this won't do what just happened with the total collapse of the previous good looking Mid-Long Range.

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Perhaps a dumb question....but do you think this is legit?  Or another head-fake?  I know you're not a fortune teller, but is there anything here that makes you think this won't do what just happened with the total collapse of the previous good looking Mid-Long Range.

It's not a whopper or extreme pattern being advertised, so I don't see a reason to doubt it right now. Could the EPO dislodging be rushed? Yeah it might be....though our first storm threat occurs before that happens. We're going more of a PNA-driven threat with a serviceable airmass near peak cold climo. The EPO starts relaxing more after that D8-10 period....and maybe the NAO starts becoming less hostile, though I'm always more skeptical of that until it's much closer....but even a neutral NAO look would be better than the absolute dung we've had the past several weeks.

This is the first 3 weeks of this month for H5 anomalies....

 

Jan1-21_2020.gif

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21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Perhaps a dumb question....but do you think this is legit?  Or another head-fake?  I know you're not a fortune teller, but is there anything here that makes you think this won't do what just happened with the total collapse of the previous good looking Mid-Long Range.

The QBO rate of descent has always favored later in the season for a less hostile polar domain.

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Cannot predict the final result for the month of February but could end up not so much epic but likely more salvageable in terms that the month might provide closer to normal snowfall and maybe slightly above temperatures.  Noticing the trend my thoughts is that March is likely the month that we get a normal to slightly below normal.  But some will likely continue snow-less.

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