Ogmios

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    OG35
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    Nova Scotia

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  1. The storm of 2020! Who knows but as I recall White Juan - now that was a winter hurricane that hit us back in 2004 that because it did not hit the states was never named the Blizzard of 2004. Interestingly enough this winter seems to be the winter that comes in spurts for Newfoundland, even for parts of Nova Scotia specifically for Cape Breton, (mainland is in a bit of a 2nd and in some cases 3rd year in a row snow hole) as for most of Southern New England it will be the second season in a row of being in that snow hole. Interestingly enough in storms like this if the NAO was negative this is a major rain storm for you, with the teleconnections that are good down there can be bad in Newfoundland. In a true GSM temperature wise Newfoundland is likely to be warmer.
  2. Fast flow on the 6Z indicating Pacific dominant flow EPO+ continuing with with an AO+; with nothing but higher heights (500 Anomaly) on the map in fantasy land. CFS is also being schooled by the EURO as the latest still shows overall cold until you get into Maine and up into the maritimes which show blow torch; expect the trends to continue to go warm at this point for all of North America.
  3. I keep hearing from 3rd party sources that the European models have recently trended into a blow torch pattern for much of the East Coast throughout February which is in agreement with the CanSIPS. Since I do not have access to the Euro long term predictions by monthly I will leave that to others to verify whether true or not.
  4. I would also say some people just like to make a living off it (snow plow drivers), and small businesses that need the income to supplement the seasonal industry facing the everyday struggle that might cause closure and failure through things unrelated to weather that will not be mentioned here, and not enough customers requiring equipment for winter activities and tools alike; the season might end up so slow that more workers lose their jobs.
  5. From Judah Cohen: GFS ensembles now in agreement w operational completing a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling strong #PolarVortex/positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event with positive AO predicted for late Jan & early Feb that favors an overall mild pattern across the N Hemisphere: Better get ready in some areas at least to plan on some early gardening should this verify as the correct solution. Dr. Dews will be doing his rain dance no doubt to help this along.
  6. GFS has a complete cutter going way further to the north and is no longer a by of Fundy Track but a central New Brunswick one with a longer duration of rain though not looking very intense as the precipitation looks along the lines of late December 2018 and early January 2019 type of weak system. That thump is looking less likely and is more of a straight out mild air event. I am still surprised that the highs are still only 37 degrees but I am expecting 40's as a probability and general snow lovers defeat as models continue to trend warmer, which leads me to think this storm is looking like more snow for Quebec, Northern New Brunswick, and Northern interior New England.
  7. Not sure if this should be posted over on the panic forum for those that will not like the Pacific look in these teleconnections: The NAO is not bad, the PNA is good shape, but the EPO says ocean runaway influence. Note: if you are getting the 14th of January please click on the image to get the January 15 teleconnections
  8. The GFS argues for the runner with no secondary low development while the European develops one. The CMC agrees with the GFS while the ICON agrees with the Euro. So which model is schooling whom, and based on the overall synopsis of the general pattern overall in the outlook it is increasingly clear the ocean climate so to speak as opposed to a more Arctic look is not going anywhere's anytime soon though it may somewhat be suppressed allowing for regular chilly air shots more for Northern New England as that ridge in the Atlantic is going to keep fighting back.
  9. Pretty bad when Vancouver gets more snow then Connecticut but I have no doubt that the Blizzard of 2020 will hit your area and miss mine to the south by the middle of February.
  10. Well considering the recent trends for Thursday hoping it does not go further to the south then it already is (The Tri Counties score sizable snowfall) lets hope for this to be a continuing trend and not a blip. This particular track is the second most common one that has been predicted in the alternative universe, and if it works out it is not a big storm on the latest models but it will bring a widespread 10-15 cm (that is what we might as well call in translation 4-6 inches).
  11. The update from the 12Z for anyone interested.
  12. Now I can say Halifax you are getting 2-4 inches based on a weakening and further southern track, same for Valley with the tri-counties scoring on this one. Note: The NAM also trended weaker. Even the next system looks weaker, same track as 6Z, but with less warmth. So that is two minor systems on this run.
  13. Each run goes further north which does not bode well if the trend continues to go that path. Even in my area we are still up for a good 3-6 inches in my area but if this trend continues I will surely join Hazey in his 2-4 range getting more rain in Halifax then Snow. But maybe if they "Stop the Widening it is a tradition - to quote an old Maine Protest in the early 2000's on US Hwy 1 ) we might start seeing a more southern track look where we all can benefit with a good thumping of at least 6+ inches to help snow mobiles.
  14. Oops your right this one is the weekend event that I am talking about. This particular storm for this thread is set to dump 4-6 inches which works out nice for me.
  15. The track at the 6Z run is progressively taking the low further north, it no longer is tracking along the water's edge of the coast but takes it along the coast on the land bringing temperatures up in some locations by a touch of a degree. A brief 1-3 inches over southern New England as the trend seems to be further north every run as it progressively becomes a mostly rain event, even coastal Maine through the southern Maritimes are trending towards that fate at this point (though not there yet except southern Nova Scotia already is mostly rain including Hazey). Note: 6:46 Atlantic Standard Time Quoted Weekend Storm for Saturday January 18 to Sunday January 19, 2020