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Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event


MountainGeek
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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

VDOT and DC DOT are reviewing MDOTs policy and how it is assessed for compliance by contractors.  At least on paper, the program is solid and has been used elsewhere in the northeast.  The plan has two tiers, one for events like the one forecast to occur and other's where at least 8 inches of snow is expected. 

Thats good.  Not to take the thread too off topic but the salt treatment bonanza the last few years has dramatically affected watersheds both public and private.  So much so that things might get critical in a few years for treatment purposes.

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27 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

One of the things I like about these runs is the increasing low level flow out of the southeast leading into the system. This has helped really moisten the lower column, allowing minimal time for the boundary layer to have to moisten up with the onset of precip. We should see precip fall very quickly once the returns are overhead. 

Also, the H7 VV's on models are pretty significant across the area during the peak of the storm. There will be solid 6 hr period of solid lift across the Shenandoah and areas to the NE before we see precip tapering off. When the flow shifts to the NW, that'll be the time frame when you know the snow will be coming to an end in a few hours as dry air filters in behind the departing low. General 1-3" for areas impacted, but higher elevations in the BR and the valley's of VA could easily see 3-5". A nice little event incoming :)

Thanks. I haven’t had a chance to really analyze but yesterday it seemed parts of our area were also being helped some by moisture convergence along an inverted trough type feature. That can sometimes lead to an unexpected surprise 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

WWA is only for the SW portion of the LWX CWA for right now though

I would think that was first step for that area specifically because it falls inside 24 hrs for the start for those counties. Further to the northeast, they could in theory hold off a little longer, although they probably will pull the trigger on something. That's just my theory given recent history of Sterling and posting Winter Wx products. 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I would think that was first step for that area specifically because it falls inside 24 hrs for the start for those counties. Further to the northeast, they could in theory hold off a little longer, although they probably will pull the trigger on something. That's just my theory given recent history of Sterling and posting Winter Wx products. 

Def agree... they could probably wait till after the 00z early runs before issuing anything for the DC/BALT metro regions

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. I haven’t had a chance to really analyze but yesterday it seemed parts of our area were also being helped some by moisture convergence along an inverted trough type feature. That can sometimes lead to an unexpected surprise 

Agreed. You can kind of pick something out on the NAM that shows that signal. Looks like prime time is during the morning across VA and between Noon-5PM for areas to the northeast. Orientation of the precip field, as well as the orientation of the thicknesses over Central MD indicate an inverted trough type feature. Fairly progressive disturbance, so the window is still 4-7 hrs. 

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2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I think this map looks good... Everyone looks at the snow maps and think that is what is going to be on the ground.  

Id make the argument that maybe Frederick, Westmister, Leesburg and points around there should be 1" but for the metros I think its fine

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