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Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event


MountainGeek
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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I wonder which is more likely. Might have to wait to see how the radar develops. My gut says precip from that direction tends to arrive a bit earlier than is forecast. We shall see 

Every bit earlier that we can start will help cap the daytime temp rise and take better advantage of the overnight ground temps....and for the coastal plain a good solid thump (even if short-lived) is probably the best shot at getting more than snow TV. 

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26 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Trend so far has been to juice things up just a bit...every bit counts. Though, speed and temps put a ceiling on this it would be nice to see the trend continue. 

HeRDerPS joins the trend.

8v62OXS.png

That isn’t a uniform trend. Seems specific only to the area between DC and Hagerstown 

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm just hoping for a 1-2 hour period in the late afternoon where it feels like the middle of a legit big winter storm so I can head out for a nice run in it. Doesn't even have to accumulate for me. Just remind me that legit snow and winter exists.

Yea, it's intriguing being a compact dynamic ball of precip. All sim radars are showing heavies. Many variables irt accum snow that won't really be known until game time but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't looking forward to watching radar tomorrow. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Starting to see a pretty tight cluster of solutions across all guidance. Euro/gfs are basically lock step now... Seems like a best case scenario is showing up under 48 hours...

Maybe this is the little event that starts the process of turning our luck around...

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Consider this an open question too all because it’s something I’ve been wondering: are we (we being Beltway-East) worried about rain or a mix at all? I realize surface temps are iffy, but should it be all snow in theory?

 

These soundings (THE EURO!) show the issues for of us closer in.  Should be snow but accumulations will be tough.

ecmwf_full_2020010612_036_39.0--77.25.png

ecmwf_full_2020010612_030_39.0--77.25.png

Edit:  Not saying we won't accumulate.  They Euro is a degree or two colder at the surface than the GFS.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Consider this an open question too all because it’s something I’ve been wondering: are we (we being Beltway-East) worried about rain or a mix at all? I realize surface temps are iffy, but should it be all snow in theory?

 

My question too, curious how much of the QPF ends up falling into 34-39 degree air....

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