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MountainGeek

Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event

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i cant wait for the only snow event we will see in January and possibly this winter. Especially seeing the back edge fly in as soon as the first flakes fall

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15 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Let's do this! Things are trending the right way, and @showmethesnow hasn't spoken in cleartext about this one so we're safe at the moment. 

C0E0EF62-BDA4-4B08-AF1A-86F069871252.png

 

If you ignore the soundings, this looks great!

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

Showme just commented, close this thread down immediately! LOL

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I'm suprised the NWS hasn't put up an "Oh Look, Flakes" Watch yet.

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

Showme just commented, close this thread down immediately! LOL

I know, we're cursed. 

 

Just now, Amped said:

I'm suprised the NWS hasn't put up an "Oh Look, Flakes" Watch yet.

Maybe they are going to give it a little more time -- this was around 5AM. OTOH, maybe they are betting on a phased stronger storm cutting west.....:ph34r:

D4_WinterThreat.png

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31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The setup for Tues actually isn't far from being a stronger storm then currently depicted. Right now the shortwave in the NS  is lagging behind the southern SW. But a quicker, deeper drop with this NS shortwave puts it in a prime position for dropping down the back side of the southern for a phase. Only problem with seeing that occur though is that the low is struggling to stay south of us as it is. Stronger system and we are tempting fate on seeing the system run to our west. So the question is, do we fell lucky? :D

 

euroshortwaves.gif.c734537bce707c1bc75eee1a3902d3b7.gif

 

 

The squirrel is in the bird feeder. I repeat. The squirrel is in the bird feeder.

One thing I will add to the above. Stronger system from a phase and we get better rates to overcome the lower level warmth. The question then would become, where does the phase occur? Right now as depicted a phase would more then likely pull that system to our west. But we see it occur farther to the south and/or east chances are we could see the system stay underneath us.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS says the op is close to best case scenario. Majority of eps members are nothingburgers. 

And even the operational 12z Euro has fairly mild boundary layer temperatures for the I95 region (see sounding below). Unfortunately not a great pattern for low-level cold air with the progressive 500-mb troughs in SE Canada/lack of a strong, cold anticyclone.

ecmwf_full_2020010412_078_39.25--77.0.thumb.png.7daa434b52a41d325bd86c7946b94d15.png

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Can you properly encode your post on this storm from the LR thread and re-post here? That should buy you some redemption points.....


I’ll choose to take the optimistic position... the Control member looks fairly similar to the OP.

45a31413885173d5c56c7e0f28a46473.jpg

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1 minute ago, heavy_wx said:

And even the operational 12z Euro has fairly mild boundary layer temperatures for the I95 region (see sounding below). Unfortunately not a great pattern for low-level cold air with the progressive 500-mb troughs in SE Canada/lack of a strong, cold anticyclone.

 

Yea, it's an uphill battle to put it lightly...

The only reason there's a chance is because we're in our coldest climo window of the year. This same event in Dec or late Feb is all rain. Jan can be forgiving as we can get snow with AN temps. I'm not excited about it but if I can get 1" out of the deal it would be a pretty big win all things considered 

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   It's always worth remembering in these marginal events that the 10:1 maps do NOT represent what the model thinks will be on the ground.    There is a total snowfall liquid equivalent parameter that reflects how much liquid is falling as snow out of the model.     It makes no attempt to answer what the SLR will be or whether it will stick;  those maps are TT throwing a 10:1 ratio on that liquid total.       The accumulated snow depth plots DO reflect what the model thinks will actually accumulate on the ground.

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45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

NAM’d

1578463200-rb5gu0HWU8k.png

I am prepared to chase this week, as long as there is a chance for a solid couple inches.

NAM says stay home lol.

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

I don't care how much would stick, I just want to see it falling. 

It's Jan. I am well beyond being giddy over snow tv.

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Agreed.  The weather gods have the final say...throw out the negativity.  Actually in fairness to the doom and gloom facts there Has been a ray of hope for something this week on the models for a couple of weeks.

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Just let me see it fall, I'm with you dog

 

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GFS says will be lucky to see anything.  Hug the EURO, CMC, and the NAM.  I am just enjoying having something to track in January.  I really have no expectations.  I am amused at how personal people are taking this crappy pattern...  DON’T!!!!  It is just the weather.

i just saw my Uncle dying from cancer.  That is something to get upset about.

8F9D5CDF-7E57-4EC7-A2E7-632B4A0EB326.png

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

18z GEFS is further south, colder 850s,  but still weak sauce precip and warm surface.

I really don't see how we make this setup work. The high is over West Virginia, and doesn't extend north into New England . The scenarios suppressed enough for snow all have weak sauce

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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

GFS says will be lucky to see anything.  Hug the EURO, CMC, and the NAM.

8F9D5CDF-7E57-4EC7-A2E7-632B4A0EB326.png

GooFuS always last to the party. :facepalm:

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I found the snow but unfortunately it's in Eastern Europe. Romania we finally got snow during my trip back home. Hope to bring some back to the east coast by mid month]

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t see what could possibly go wrong

We have a chance. Especially out this way. It depends how much cold air can make it in here on Monday night. But I think we will at least see flakes falling. Which is a win this winter so far.

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6 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

I found the snow but unfortunately it's in Eastern Europe. Romania we finally got snow during my trip back home. Hope to bring some back to the east coast by mid month37efb652179fc69df814f7f6f57921e3.jpga9b38818481c6e4c29a7057372bca5c5.jpg

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

They always take pictures sideways over there?

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