January 2020 Discussion

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you might have a really strong correlation to the AMO decadal cycle perhaps? Which also seems to loosely follow the NAO decadal cycles. The '80s bottomed out and were frigid....you see it in the Greenland temps too where they were torching in the 1940s/early 1950s and then went into an ice box with really cold stuff in the 1970s and 1980s.

Yeah I agree. I think its amo/nao dominated. 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ULL under SNE. I’m all in and emotionally invested 

You really shouldn't be until January 21.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

I always feel like the ukmet has a se bias like the navgem. Anyone else find that?

It's a weird model....sometimes I see it, but then once in a while, it will be totally warm/zonked on a coastal too. I used to say the Ukie has "an extreme bias"....seemed to like to push the envelope of the other guidance ranges. But i do feel more recently, it's been a little more southeast. Esp this year. We'll see if that holds.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...its barely a ULL...looks like it needs to eat a few cheeseburgers and fatten up. But I think most winter enthusiasts would take an inch or two if we could get it at the end so we didn't have to look at bare ground or patches.

 

Interestingly, the Ukie doesn't even look like it warm sectors us...ever....can't see 108 hours which is annoying, but nothing about those two panels looks very warm

 

 

I just don’t like not seeing a cold high up there. That’s missing 

[Hazey]

Nice to see a possible storm actually start trending better as we get closer vs the usual worse trend. Hope it keeps going in that direction. Still work to be done.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

Nice to see a possible storm actually start trending better as we get closer vs the usual worse trend. Hope it keeps going in that direction. Still work to be done.

Dryslot I am sure disagrees today as he looks over the landscape 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just don’t like not seeing a cold high up there. That’s missing 

Airmass is definitely garbage....no arguing that. But the further east it tracks, the more likely we can grab something on the tail end with the upper level energy....we want to keep the baroclinic zone south enough to make that a little bit more organized. The stronger cut scenarios rip the BZ up into canada, so it becomes hard to squeeze out anything on the back side.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a weird model....sometimes I see it, but then once in a while, it will be totally warm/zonked on a coastal too. I used to say the Ukie has "an extreme bias"....seemed to like to push the envelope of the other guidance ranges. But i do feel more recently, it's been a little more southeast. Esp this year. We'll see if that holds.

6 he increment will be out very soon

[Whineminster]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

6 he increment will be out very soon

Ice. Watch. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Whineminster said:

Ice. Watch. 

I use the Ukmet extensively. Just need to adjust with the Euro.  It is the number 2 model in the tool box.

[MJO812]

Looks like a lot of meteorologists are on board for a big  patern change at the end of this month.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a lot of meteorologists are on board for a big  patern change at the end of this month.

Today? Cool. New pattern tomorrow!

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a lot of meteorologists are on board for a big  patern change at the end of this month.

I think February will be good.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a lot of meteorologists are on board for a big  patern change at the end of this month.

Please name 5 of them.

[dryslot]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...its barely a ULL...looks like it needs to eat a few cheeseburgers and fatten up. But I think most winter enthusiasts would take an inch or two if we could get it at the end so we didn't have to look at bare ground or patches.

 

Interestingly, the Ukie doesn't even look like it warm sectors us...ever....can't see 108 hours which is annoying, but nothing about those two panels looks very warm

 

 

Just drawing a line between the two would say that stays offshore.

[dendrite]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

can't see 108 hours which is annoying, but nothing about those two panels looks very warm

Every 6hr at weather.us

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Please name 5 of them.

Ted Healy, Curly, Moe, Larry, and Shemp.

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ted Healy, Curly, Moe, Larry, and Shemp.

Hey Moe Hey Larry, will ya look at the GFS.....why you knucklehead that's the ICON....

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The natural human behavior to use any reasoning above as a way to deny or prove CC just shows you are dumb we are as a society and that we live in the dumbest time possible in our lives. We’ve become polarized with this topic and it’s become a with us or against us mentality. It’s really sad.  I just want to know what is happening without being polluted by agendas. Unfortunately it’s tough Get non-biased information these days. But I digress.

I couldn't agree with this more... yeah.

Thing is, it's a sociological problem - if we want to put a sciency sounding label to it.  I have a PHD friend in the academia of the Boston circuit of Universities ( MIT-BU-Harvard and gang if it helps to drop names...) and she's utterly agreed with me on that, that the GW "debate" isn't a debate - it's an advantageous era where people have become complacent with the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution -based tech culture. 

If someone literally feels physical and emotion pain and anguish as a direct consequence and penalty of GW, they'll admit it.  It's that simple...thus, it's a sociological problem when integrating that baser evolutionary aspect into the whole.  Humans... all animals for that matter, don't respond as well to stimulus they cannot directly sense through one of the corporeal senses:  Sight, Sound, Touch, Taste or Smell... and usually, more than one is more convincing. 

GW?  Doesn't have that advocate... It's specter is invisible...particularly when the person hearing or reading about it, is submerged in examples that are always somewhere else in the world, while always when they are sitting in a comfortable office or personal living space.  Even the poorer classed hoi - polloi that don't have quite all the accessibility to the same advantages as higher echelon, live luxuriantly cozy existences compared to the 47-year old life expectancy of their paleo-forefathren ... 

People deny GW/CC ...whatever we want to call it, because they can...and, they will do what they can, if it takes not having to face that they can't live the way they've grown accustomed to living.  That's the problem facing the World.  ...and why that 'catch-22' will probably require a massive population correction and tech set back, before some form of non -profligate, responsible/conservative approach to building the scaffold of future society heralds the real next phase in human evolution.  Which,...this is that turning of the page - it never goes smoothly...  That's being optimistic, too... We don't even know what the finality of these detrimental evidences are, as they are still in the process of f'n the environmental as it is.  We keep fielding papers that x, y or z is worse than projected it would be. ...list goes on...

The catch-22?   It's because the very evolutionary advantage that the vicissitudes of gratuitous chance endowed humanity with, the genius of ingenuity, appears destined to have created it's own demise.  

Cheers

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Please name 5 of them.

Rich Hoffman , James Rinaldi, JB , DT and many others but they aren't  well known.

[OceanStWx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there is a point, but you’ll need like 50 years of data to really see. It may be effect things like ENSO analogs etc, but you can’t pinpoint things to specific winters. The climate is very complicated and small scale things will always Trump background AGW for the near future. For example, the winters of 13-14 and 14-15 were brutal in the US. People blamed a warm pool in the GOA, but those warm pools do little to effect the pattern. Naturally cold water that is a few degrees above normal has little power to disrupt hemispheric patterns. However, if you dig deep..you would see that we had a low frequency standing wave pattern with the MJO that was conducive to 500mb ridging over west coast US. That in turn led to warm GOA sea temps.  We all rushed to blame CC, but the real answer seemed to be in the tropics. Now can CC effect MJO? Perhaps and you’d need to spend some time on that. So, CC tells us to expect more things like warm temps and storms, however small scale details like ENSO, solar, PV placement etc really drive the bus. 

It's what makes attribution studies so difficult. Many weather events were likely to happen on their own, but are exacerbated by climate change.

Winter is going to happen regardless of how the climate changes, the question is how much better/worse is it because of those changes. A lot of climate science is known unknowns. We know things are going to change but not necessarily how or to what magnitude. Some things are easier like average temps or TC strength. Others are more difficult.

But adding heat and therefore increasing the potential water vapor in the air could lead to larger areas of convection and more latent heating, which as you point out can have significant downstream knock on effects. 

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty big changes on the 12z Euro for this weekend....we never warm sector...and it could get interesting on the back end. Out to 108, so we'll see what the next few panels bring.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that is a flip to snow at the end of that one. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty big changes on the 12z Euro for this weekend....we never warm sector...and it could get interesting on the back end. Out to 108, so we'll see what the next few panels bring.

EPS probs of 850 > 0C are starting to drop below 50% for parts of the GYX CWA. 

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty big changes on the 12z Euro for this weekend....we never warm sector...and it could get interesting on the back end. Out to 108, so we'll see what the next few panels bring.

yeah, dumped the 50"s to now barely 40's

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty big changes on the 12z Euro for this weekend....we never warm sector...and it could get interesting on the back end. Out to 108, so we'll see what the next few panels bring.

Was just going to.post that's way different!

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty big changes on the 12z Euro for this weekend....we never warm sector...and it could get interesting on the back end. Out to 108, so we'll see what the next few panels bring.

What’s causing the changes today on the modeling? Anything Atlantic related?

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah...considering these next ten days to two weeks, looks like three potentials for inclemency:

Jan 5-6, 8-9, 11-13

How those perform ( obviously) have more coherency the nearer in time, but It's not hard ( for me ) to see why we are "Lake cutter" saturated with storm tracks, in the mean modeling behavior this cold season.

I put that in quotes because my take on things are at odds, philosophically, with the recognition of how/why lows cut early and turn polarward through the Great Lakes longitude(s) as guidance has biased.  We are looking at a coincident result, more so than a pattern that typically drives those.

The Hadley Cell bloated stuff is simply messing everything up. The storm track is being pushed N in the mean - this is papered... - and North America seems to be suffering the same.  That's different from a pure -PNA/-PNAP flow construct.

Having said that, there are ways to overcome that forcing ... There just needs to be relative anomalies embedded with the necessary power to do so. Which can and will at some point happen.  As well, just because the HC is inflated anomalously "heighty", doesn't mean it will always be that way... So things can time that way, too. 

It's not a good era for modeling ...particularly latter mid and extended ranges, because the velocity saturation and 'stretching' of wave mechanics makes determinism at an excessive premium to put it nicely.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s causing the changes today on the modeling? Anything Atlantic related?

Much stronger scooter streak shortwave out ahead of the main trough. It's flattening the flow and it causes the main energy to get shoved south more...so with that lagging energy at the base of the trough, it allows a flip to snow in addition to the more eastward track.

[NorEastermass128]

I hate to be that guy, but what’s the timing of this?  9AM flight out of BOS on Sunday...