CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Temps may be borderline, but regardless it’s an interesting solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Obviously, we want to see if this is an outlier run vs. static/trend. The other model shifts would suggest a new static or hopefully start of a trend. Assuming static, does this mean a colder rain with a late turnover for SNE? At least that might allow a persistent ground cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: I hate to be that guy, but what’s the timing of this? 9AM flight out of BOS on Sunday... That would actually be pretty bad timing on this run....that's around when it flips to snow at BOS. Obviously this could change quite a bit...it already has in the span of a couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Obviously, we want to see if this is an outlier run vs. static/trend. The other model shifts would suggest a new static or hopefully start of a trend. Assuming static, does this mean a colder rain with a late turnover for SNE? At least that might allow a persistent ground cover. Yes....this doesn't give us anything frozen on the front end...just a rain in the 30s....but if we tick it a bit colder then it could start to get interesting. But yeah, you'd prob keep the sleet pack intact and then grab an inch or two of snow on top of that at the end in a solution like the 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rich Hoffman , James Rinaldi, JB , DT and many others but they aren't well known. Well you did come up with 4 names!! lol I'll toss JB and DT. JB is always calling for a pattern change to cold and snowy. If JB had been right even 25 percent of the time the east coast would be covered with a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Re the Euro... I'd like to point out a subtlety. Four cycles ago (12z yesterday), this was a stem-wound bomb up in western/central Ontario re the 5th-ish. 00z last night had that more Buffalo's longitude, with suggestion of a secondary ...at least attempt if not reflection. This 12z run seems destined to continue along that trend of correcting E... I just want to note, that the Euro tends to have a slight west/amplitude trough bias at D7+, so...this syncopated correction isn't without precedence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Re the Euro... I'd like to point out a subtlety. Four cycles ago (12z yesterday), this was a stem-wound bomb up in western/central Ontario re the 5th-ish. 00z last night had that more Buffalo's longitude, with suggestion of a secondary ...at least attempt if not reflection. This 12z run seems destined to continue along that trend of correcting E... I just want to note, that the Euro tends to have a slight west/amplitude trough bias at D7+, so...this syncopated correction isn't without precedence. Then day 8 has 983 mb low sitting over upstate NY.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That would actually be pretty bad timing on this run....that's around when it flips to snow at BOS. Obviously this could change quite a bit...it already has in the span of a couple runs. Dang. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Then day 8 has 983 mb low sitting over upstate NY.... So excited I’m shirtless at work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Thank god the Euro came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Eh I wouldn’t sweat it luke. Guidance has been wild lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Then day 8 has 983 mb low sitting over upstate NY.... You just saw a massive shift in 24 hours and you are noticing day 8? Cheers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 6e 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep some analysis please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Eh I wouldn’t sweat it luke. Guidance has been wild lately. I don't get it but whatever floats the boat. Wild stuff happens especially in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Then day 8 has 983 mb low sitting over upstate NY.... We ignore things that don't give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I hate to say it but the German was kinda first to sniff out this flattening trend. I’ve been following this system for a few days now since I wasn’t in the game for much wintery weather out of the current storm. Every model can find a nut at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: 6e some analysis please.. Very anomalous deep 5 h going under us. Low heights, moisture and good jet dynamics. Something happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Hazey said: I hate to say it but the German was kinda first to sniff out this flattening trend. I’ve been following this system for a few days now since I wasn’t in the game for much wintery weather out of the current storm. Every model can find a nut at some point. We track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: We ignore things that don't give us snow. I think the point is that models have not been very reliable, so why worry about it when we have something better before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Eh I wouldn’t sweat it luke. Guidance has been wild lately. Very. I mean...it choked on that event from a week or so ago at go time so I wouldn’t expect a d7 op threat to materialize. Not like we want to see crushed solutions anyway. But, it would be nice to see a good sustained pac driven pattern for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Hazey said: I hate to say it but the German was kinda first to sniff out this flattening trend. I’ve been following this system for a few days now since I wasn’t in the game for much wintery weather out of the current storm. Every model can find a nut at some point. Yeah saw that and then the gfs went in that direction as well. The trends are colder and that sort of started last night. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Very anomalous deep 5 h going under us. Low heights, moisture and good jet dynamics. Something happening here thanks, that was my thinking that it did not pop something better at the surface.. should be in 6/18z euro range by tomorrow. sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: You just saw a massive shift in 24 hours and you are noticing day 8? Cheers I was adding to Tip's observations regarding the Euro in the longer range, not trying to be a Debbie...That is what the panic room is for, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I was adding to Tip's observations regarding the Euro in the longer range, not trying to be a Debbie...That is what the panic room is for, lol Gotcha. Happy New year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Very anomalous deep 5 h going under us. Low heights, moisture and good jet dynamics. Something happening here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Gotcha. Happy New year Thanks, same to you.I personally would love to see the long range fail completely and we are tracking snow events starting with this weekend staright through March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I was adding to Tip's observations regarding the Euro in the longer range, not trying to be a Debbie...That is what the panic room is for, lol I was with you on that... The the error balloons from about D4.5 on that run, re that particular wave. It looks like the model overly conserves it's mechanics and digs it too prodigiously in toward W. TX or thereabouts... and then of course it has to then consider what to do with all that power once it is ejected... ending up in a upstate bomb. I suggest that D4-5 comes out flatter and that thing ends up a NJ model type low ...but I also caution, that's all predicated on the assumption it's right at D4, first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: Thanks, same to you.I personally would love to see the long range fail completely and we are tracking snow events starting with this weekend staright through March Yea, I think we would happily accept that and just marinate in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 We track. Yes we do. I’m itching for a nice blowing and drifting snowstorm. Maybe this will be it. Been a while here since I had one. Snow has been of the wet and sloppy kind lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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