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NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

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4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

5th day in a row up here as well.

Yeah, the interior Northeast is doing great in this pattern. Must be nice living on an area where the phase of the NAO and AO aren’t as important as the coast for record snows.

 

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38 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:
59 minutes ago, David-LI said:
Wait a second, 5th straight day? Yesterday was sunny and clear. You saw snow yesterday?

had a snow shower early in the am around 730/8 AM

saw a few wet flakes about 1:45pm today... at one point this morning it looked like a thunder storm was going to hit...we got a few sprinkles from it...

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42 and snowing. Always feels odd when that happens, like it’s not even cold cold. Highest temp I’ve seen snow was 49-50F.

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17 minutes ago, Cfa said:

42 and snowing. Always feels odd when that happens, like it’s not even cold cold. Highest temp I’ve seen snow was 49-50F.

I've seen snow at 50 too--dewpoint had to have been really low for that.

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5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

To your point, 1.85" of LE for me from the storm, 9" at the stake this morning.

Nice.  That'll have some staying power, even this early in the season.  Total LE here from Sunday through Tuesday was 0.49".  Temperatures weren't the only problem.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Look on the bright side. At least the heavy rain potential next week will wash away all the leftover salt on the paved surfaces. But make sure you have rain gutters with leaf guards.;)
 

Just had my gutters cleaned out today, bring on the rain!

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Look on the bright side. At least the heavy rain potential next week will wash away all the leftover salt on the paved surfaces. But make sure you have rain gutters with leaf guards.;)
 

472573B6-14E4-470A-8C1E-D31AD8B67FF9.gif.731917c4192f062f9e8ef9d3ef310210.gif

 

‘Sigh’ we cant even maintain salt accumulations. As always ....

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6 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Sorry man, didn't intend that post the way you took it.  There was no sarcasm. I really do enjoy your glass half full posts.  I am the biggest weenie there is, so I have no business looking down on anyone else who might be.  

Yeah I take it as a compliment.

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Despite partly sunny skies, readings remained below normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. A brisk breeze added to the chill.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -8.15 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.366.

Daily MJO data has continued to be unavailable. Model initializations can provide a general idea of the MJO's progression and amplitude.

After a generally cold first week of December, warmer conditions will likely return. There is a chance that the second week of December could see one or more days with much above normal readings topping out in the 50s and perhaps even near 60° in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Nevertheless, cold shots will continue to occur on a periodic basis. Moreover, the third week of the month could turn colder and possibly for a more sustained period of time, especially if the EPO goes negative.

Despite the periodic cold shots and possible longer-duration period of cold, no snowstorms appear likely through at least the next 7-14 days in much of the region. Lake effect regions, upstate New York, and northern New England could see additional accumulations.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the interior Northeast is doing great in this pattern. Must be nice living on an area where the phase of the NAO and AO aren’t as important as the coast for record snows.

 

The mountains are not, negative NAO sends storms south of them

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8 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Has there been winters where NYC metro got more snow than Albany for example, or Buffalo?

I'm sure there have been, at least for Albany as they can get into cold and dry patterns. 2015-2016 was one such year where Albany recorded 16.9 inches and NYC (Central Park) recorded 32.8 inches. It is very very rare though. I would say Buffalo will almost always win barring a bizarre pattern. NYC really is not known for high average snowfall, especially by NYS standards. We take what we can, it is highly variable here. Some years it is epic, others not so much. The 2010s have, for the most part, been amazing for us.

NYC History: https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Albandy History: https://www.weather.gov/media/aly/Climate/ALY_Seasonal_Snowfall_Totals.pdf

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The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 2.5degs. AN.

36* here at 6am.     40* by 10am.       44* by Noon.      46* at 1pm.       48* at 2pm.     49* at 3pm.

Our 3 major models all give us 2X our daily water(lol) over the next 10 to 15 days with two blow off T events.    That could have been 20" to 30" of snow.     Where is our CAD to the rescue?

I use the GFSx output for the Next 8.    It is only an estimate.

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Since November 1st Central Park has had 26 below normal Days 7 above normal and two exactly normal. Looking at guidance over the next seven days five  are below normal and 2 above normal. That would give us 31 of the last 42 days below normal. What's even more impressive it that 17 of those 31 below normal days had a departure of -5 or lower. there's no way to cut it, we are in a cold pattern right now and there are really no signs it's going to stop anytime soon

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7 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 2.5degs. AN.

36* here at 6am.

 

I really enjoy reading your post in the morning but sometimes I scratch my head as to where you get your figures from. We are below normal through Sunday then two well above normal days Monday and Tuesday and then three well below normal days Wednesday Thursday and Friday. We are well below normal over the next 7 days according to guidance. 

Edit. Looking a little more closely at guidance for Wednesday Thursday and Friday of next week -8 Wednesday -20 Thursday - 15 Friday would like to know what numbers you have. we ar in the 20s Thursday and Friday for highs which is about 20 degrees below normal

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40 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Since November 1st Central Park has had 26 below normal Days 7 above normal and two exactly normal. Looking at guidance over the next seven days five  are below normal and 2 above normal. That would give us 31 of the last 42 days below normal. What's even more impressive it that 17 of those 31 below normal days had a departure of -5 or lower. there's no way to cut it, we are in a cold pattern right now and there are really no signs it's going to stop anytime soon

While it has been a cold pattern, the storm tracks have been too warm for much snow at the coast. Looks like we see a continuation of this next week. A few days of warm and wet followed by more cold and dry. NYC is actually behind the snowfall pace of last year. NYC has 1.6”vs 6.4” by December 6th last year.

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While it has been a cold pattern, the storm tracks have been too warm for much snow at the coast. Looks like we see a continuation of this next week. A few days of warm and wet followed by more cold and dry. NYC is actually behind the snowfall pace of last year. NYC has 1.6”vs 6.4” by December 6th last year.

Yes this is true but that was a fluke last year in November. If temperature stay below normal the rest of the month as it has been I'm sure we're going to score on a few events. may not be all snow but we should add to  December's total.

Edit. I believe the main ingredient for snow is cold arctic air and we've had a few Arctic breakouts since November 1st and another one for next week. We will eventually get a low pressure to push into this cold air only a matter of time

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Watch the wave along the front next week for possible snow.  Gefs and cmc show this.  The other models are also close.

 

FB_IMG_1575636930356.jpg

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I know everyone likes to look at the MJO RMM charts. But sometimes the low frequency forcing can tell the story. Notice the persistent low frequency forcing since the beginning of November over the WPAC. It lines up with a MJO 6 pattern this time of year. You can see this is the December pattern so far with the -EPO and +NAO.

14FA3502-78EB-454F-8D8A-271AD1072B33.thumb.png.4197b990fe1a306de44b70d881259991.png

8F8CB8BA-5A4D-431E-9981-34A9941A84BC.png.5db3042c26c275094c1d41b4604f317a.png

 

 

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