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NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

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I mentioned something to this effect a while back. These guys take it a step further. My thoughts were, and still are, that the warm phases are somewhat muted by this. Regardless, nice to see it being discussed. 

 

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GFS really has a complex setup for the early December storm.          36* and Rain to 46* and Rain to 26* with 5" of tail end Snow.     Total precipitation is 2".     This evolution looks like a long  shot and I bet something simpler actually evolves.

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GFS really has a complex setup for the early December storm.          36* and Rain to 46* and Rain to 26* with 5" of tail end Snow.     Total precipitation is 2".     This evolution looks like a long  shot and I bet something simpler actually evolves.

Always does.


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48 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At this range I’d rather the GFS target SE VA with heavy snow. Nice eye candy but that’s about all it’s worth at this point. 

Yup. We've lost threats with less than 72 hours to go before. I will pay attention if its still there on Friday

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7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs much weaker

Not only weaker but major suppression. Heights crashing out ahead and baroclinic zone forcing Southeast with strong confluence and nothing to force this bad boy to go negative. The 00z goofus was for the fishies. Enjoy

25EF28DF-6D9C-45CC-A179-7F970592CC83.png

0CB09534-E46B-48EC-A530-093B20040678.png

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23 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Not only weaker but major suppression. Heights crashing out ahead and baroclinic zone forcing Southeast with strong confluence and nothing to force this bad boy to go negative. The 00z goofus was for the fishies. Enjoy

Yeah bc I'm sure the 150hr GFS will verify exactly like that. 

Suppression that far south is unlikely due to the very far north primary. A secondary coastal wouldn't get further south than the Delmarva.

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33 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Not only weaker but major suppression. Heights crashing out ahead and baroclinic zone forcing Southeast with strong confluence and nothing to force this bad boy to go negative. The 00z goofus was for the fishies. Enjoy

25EF28DF-6D9C-45CC-A179-7F970592CC83.png

0CB09534-E46B-48EC-A530-093B20040678.png

Awesome, suppression!! From the GFS that’s a good sign. (Whether this happens who knows but I’d wager quite a bit it doesn’t) 

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The very positive tilt on that trough is a huge downer on this threat too. Who knows if other models follow suit but I can’t think of many snow producers here on a positive tilted racing East trough like that. 

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The very positive tilt on that trough is a huge downer on this threat too. Who knows if other models follow suit but I can’t think of many snow producers here on a positive tilted racing East trough like that. 

I suspect this will be a brief period of snow at the tail end of the storm.

 

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5 hours ago, psv88 said:

Yup. We've lost threats with less than 72 hours to go before. I will pay attention if its still there on Friday

Only problem is most people will just go with what the models show on Wednesday and make their plans for the holiday weekend based on that.  Until these models get better in the 5-7 day range and even beyond that, meteorologists will keep the reputation they have with the public.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like a lakes cutter to me, not buying the redevelopment, better shot would be NE of the area.  Not to mention it looks warm

The primary is in the lower Midwest and it has to redevelop due to the 50/50 type low. 

It's not a lakes cutter at all. The secondary could even move ESE as it develops due to the strong confluence up north.

The strong high to the north would lead to good surface cold as long as the track is favorable.

Models will shift further south with this. 

Only issue is that the system could end up disjointed as the primary get shredded. Would really need the secondary to rapidly intensify for the storm to produce.

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30 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like a lakes cutter to me, not buying the redevelopment, better shot would be NE of the area.  Not to mention it looks warm

What  ? There is blocking  to the north. This has to redevelop.

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8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The very positive tilt on that trough is a huge downer on this threat too. Who knows if other models follow suit but I can’t think of many snow producers here on a positive tilted racing East trough like that. 

Yeah I can’t think of anything that did that either.  That’s why I think over time we could see this thing just look more weak and strung out.  

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