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NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

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Just now, David-LI said:

Strong winds and snow 1 am Tuesday morning. Full blown blizzard in Boston. Their forum must be going wild.

Nope

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Coast goes to snow around 7 pm Monday night

 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

The storm spins and spins thanks to the block.

I think these models are overdoing the warmth, and the fact that every time these models are too warm, nam seems to be much better in thermals I’d like to see that in the next day or two. I think we’re going to get a lot of snow out of this and even in the city could get a foot cause of the prolonging snows!

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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

 

I think these models are overdoing the warmth, and the fact that every time these models are too warm, nam seems to be much better in thermals I’d like to see that in the next day or two. I think we’re going to get a lot of snow out of this and even in the city could get a foot cause of the prolonging snows!

88E00130-DDFA-49A3-8710-B76FB705B1A6.gif.fd21e43f0aa700221758c9e73507f7db.gif

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10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

 

I think these models are overdoing the warmth, and the fact that every time these models are too warm, nam seems to be much better in thermals I’d like to see that in the next day or two. I think we’re going to get a lot of snow out of this and even in the city could get a foot cause of the prolonging snows!

Bringing those NAM facts like it’s January 2016

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15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

 

I think these models are overdoing the warmth, and the fact that every time these models are too warm, nam seems to be much better in thermals I’d like to see that in the next day or two. I think we’re going to get a lot of snow out of this and even in the city could get a foot cause of the prolonging snows!

 

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2 hours ago, David-LI said:

Strong winds and snow 1 am Tuesday morning. Full blown blizzard in Boston. Their forum must be going wild.

 

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Going nuts 

If it were 48 hrs out then we would be.

Nobody, anywhere in the world, should be going nuts from a 5 day GFS op run. Chances are pretty good that it doesn't play out how the GFS has it now.

We will not take the bait. Not yet at least.

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Online forums always have a bit of  tension between the two types of weather consumers. Those looking for the kind of weather that they want to see. With others looking for something closer to what has happened or may happen. So there are more platforms now catering to those different needs. Plus many have left the forums to just post on social media. 

Another factor I believe is how readily available the weather models are now on multiple sites and social media platforms so folks can just look at them on their own. Back in the day more people came to whichever board to find out what the latest runs show and the fewer folks who had access then we’re glad to provide the fix. How much for Philly? :bike:

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

True. But this raises interesting challenges for the longer range modeling centers. Our forum understands the strengths and weaknesses of the various weather models. You can now go on social media and see weekly and monthly model data which have very low skill scores. The general public can take these at face value without understanding their weaknesses. So this can do a disservice to modeling centers around the world. It can reinforce negative stereotypes that weather forecasting is unreliable. The OP Euro generally does a fantastic job up through about 120 hrs. The ensembles are very good in the 6-10 day range. So perhaps all these modeling centers making their weakest long range products so widely available ends up hurting the reputation in the long run. Even the OP snowfall runs past 72-120 hours have been widely inaccurate. So modelers  and vendors should consider what they put out there. 

Violently agree, I wasn’t saying it’s necessarily a good thing that the info is more readily available. My wife is a teacher and yesterday she texts me “Did you see some sites are saying 13” in the Hudson Valley this weekend?” (Shut up @BxEngine ) To which I replied it was irresponsible for sites to be posting/mentioning that to a public that doesn’t have a clue. It’s a constant battle that any of us who know a little something have to deal with at work and with friends especially this time of year. 

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7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Violently agree, I wasn’t saying it’s necessarily a good thing that the info is more readily available. My wife is a teacher and yesterday she texts me “Did you see some sites are saying 13” in the Hudson Valley this weekend?” (Shut up @BxEngine ) To which I replied it was irresponsible for sites to be posting/mentioning that to a public that doesn’t have a clue. It’s a constant battle that any of us who know a little something have to deal with at work and with friends especially this time of year. 

I'm always  surprised  how little the general public knows about weather and weather forecasting...now of course I don't expect them to be crazy about it like we are, but like you said, Im always hearing from friends and family about some forecast that they said they heard that I know isn't correct...Weather affects people's  every day  decisions about what to wear, when to leave, how to travel etc., but people still just seem so duh about it.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

I'm always  surprised  how little the general public knows about weather and weather forecasting...now of course I don't expect them to be crazy about it like we are, but like you said, Im always hearing from friends and family about some forecast that they said they heard that I know isn't correct...Weather affects people's  every day  decisions about what to wear, when to leave, how to travel etc., but people still just seem so duh about it.

Hard for us here to understand but I get it if one is not interested in it....

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

I'm always  surprised  how little the general public knows about weather and weather forecasting...now of course I don't expect them to be crazy about it like we are, but like you said, Im always hearing from friends and family about some forecast that they said they heard that I know isn't correct...Weather affects people's  every day  decisions about what to wear, when to leave, how to travel etc., but people still just seem so duh about it.

Try being a scientist. People just do not want to learn half the time. It is very strange. This stuff affects your everyday life, your health, your family’s health, etc. Even here it can be difficult to talk statistics. Some believe we are Caribou! It is interesting to see the science behind our winters and see how it affects the local ecology. Even my study organism, the blacklegged tick is driven largely by local weather. 

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Just now, BlizzardNYC said:

Might be a heads up to what the euro might do 

The UKMET got warmer than last night’s run. It doesn’t have even so much as a trace of snow until you get into extreme NW NJ. It’s posted in the New England forum if you want to take a look

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

without a cold airmass in play literally everything would have to go right for this to work out for most here....need a 12/25/02 type outcome....

Big problems with this. The 50/50 low is much weaker and further north than was modeled a few days ago, garbage airmass in place, no cold surface high locked in to the north, strong primary parent low cutting way west, secondary coastal low takes too long to form and bad track

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Big problems with this. The 50/50 low is much weaker and further north than was modeled a few days ago, garbage airmass in place, no cold surface high locked in to the north, strong primary parent low cutting way west, secondary coastal low takes too long to form and bad track

Its still 4-5 days out and thermal profiles are tricky but it's looking like you have to be 50 miles or more N and W of NYC to have a chance of any accumulating snow. 

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1 hour ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Might be a heads up to what the euro might do 

Euro map from the New England forums.

 

Would take it with a grain of salt, since that accumulation in our area seems to be from the initial front before it gets washed out.

euro run.png

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