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NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

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19 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Euro map from the New England forums.

 

Would take it with a grain of salt, since that accumulation in our area seems to be from the initial front before it gets washed out.

euro run.png

Yea, that snowmap is way, way off. The mid-levels are completely torched on the Euro, all the way into southern New England 

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22 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Euro map from the New England forums.

 

Would take it with a grain of salt, since that accumulation in our area seems to be from the initial front before it gets washed out.

euro run.png

Definitely got ukmet and now euro on the cooler board. We need the GFS to come back to the snowier solution than we may have something!

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10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Definitely got ukmet and now euro on the cooler board. We need the GFS to come back to the snowier solution than we may have something!

The mid-levels are torched but the euro is now on the cooler board? I am confused.

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7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

The mid-levels are torched but the euro is now on the cooler board? I am confused.

Surface is warm too on the Euro. That 12Z Euro snowmap is bogus, in fact Coastalwx from the New England forum totally dismissed it and for good reason, the mid-levels are a torch and the UKMET actually was cooler at 0Z, the new 12Z run has no snow at all until you get into extreme Northwestern New Jersey

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23 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Definitely got ukmet and now euro on the cooler board. We need the GFS to come back to the snowier solution than we may have something!

We still have a few days to get colder

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Surface is warm too on the Euro. That 12Z Euro snowmap is bogus, in fact Coastalwx from the New England forum totally dismissed it and for good reason, the mid-levels are a torch and the UKMET actually was cooler at 0Z, the new 12Z run has no snow at all until you get into extreme Northwestern New Jersey

What ? The 12z run is colder.  Stop spreading lies. 

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Surface is warm too on the Euro. That 12Z Euro snowmap is bogus, in fact Coastalwx from the New England forum totally dismissed it and for good reason, the mid-levels are a torch and the UKMET actually was cooler at 0Z, the new 12Z run has no snow at all until you get into extreme Northwestern New Jersey

snowmaps this far out (4-5 days) are generally worthless

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17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Surface is warm too on the Euro. That 12Z Euro snowmap is bogus, in fact Coastalwx from the New England forum totally dismissed it and for good reason, the mid-levels are a torch and the UKMET actually was cooler at 0Z, the new 12Z run has no snow at all until you get into extreme Northwestern New Jersey

That's what I meant. I was pointing out that pretty much the opposite was happening from what he pointed out. 

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Yes snow maps are useless 4 to 5 days out. But to say that the euro is to warm is inaccurate. We Will be in the mid to Upper twenties Sunday morning according to guidance with precipitation moving in. With the primary well to our West there will be a weak easterly flow and it will take time to warm the mid and lower levels. So I would say there's a better than 50-50 chance that a good portion of the region see snow Sunday morning before a transition to rain. Then it would all depend on where  the secondary forms and if it closes off at H 5 we won't know that until Friday or Saturday but that's a crapshoot. should see our first minor accumulations for a good part of the area with this system in my opinion

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41 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Yes snow maps are useless 4 to 5 days out. But to say that the euro is to warm is inaccurate. We Will be in the mid to Upper twenties Sunday morning according to guidance with precipitation moving in. With the primary well to our West there will be a weak easterly flow and it will take time to warm the mid and lower levels. So I would say there's a better than 50-50 chance that a good portion of the region see snow Sunday morning before a transition to rain. Then it would all depend on where  the secondary forms and if it closes off at H 5 we won't know that until Friday or Saturday but that's a crapshoot. should see our first minor accumulations for a good part of the area with this system in my opinion

Agree I think basically everyone will start as snow or snow/sleet from this, I don't really expect much if any accumulation near the coast but it will be nice to see the first flakes beyond flurries of the season for many. I think once you get into the HV then it's much more tricky in terms of this being a snow to rain event or a significant winter storm depending on the details. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

What ? The 12z run is colder.  Stop spreading lies. 

Yea it's definitely colder than the previous run, still not close for the metro area but definitely ticked SE with everything

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Surface is warm too on the Euro. That 12Z Euro snowmap is bogus, in fact Coastalwx from the New England forum totally dismissed it and for good reason, the mid-levels are a torch and the UKMET actually was cooler at 0Z, the new 12Z run has no snow at all until you get into extreme Northwestern New Jersey

Must be a lot of sleet, those maps often confused snow and sleet. However it would not show that type of accumulation if it was plain rain. 

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2 hours ago, binbisso said:

Yes snow maps are useless 4 to 5 days out. But to say that the euro is to warm is inaccurate. We Will be in the mid to Upper twenties Sunday morning according to guidance with precipitation moving in. With the primary well to our West there will be a weak easterly flow and it will take time to warm the mid and lower levels. So I would say there's a better than 50-50 chance that a good portion of the region see snow Sunday morning before a transition to rain. Then it would all depend on where  the secondary forms and if it closes off at H 5 we won't know that until Friday or Saturday but that's a crapshoot. should see our first minor accumulations for a good part of the area with this system in my opinion

Yes snow maps are garbage this far out, but I disagree that easterly winds this time of year keeps the low and mid levels cold. Most of models don’t even have precip until later Sunday and most have the metro area above freezing by 10AM. I’m hoping this changes but there is much working against this system for us. Unless the secondary can get going earlier we usually do poorly with this type of setup. No use in trying to pinpoint solutions right now. Although I am thinking of how horrible traffic will be Sunday night with rain or with snow. 

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51 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yes snow maps are garbage this far out, but I disagree that easterly winds this time of year keeps the low and mid levels cold. Most of models don’t even have precip until later Sunday and most have the metro area above freezing by 10AM. I’m hoping this changes but there is much working against this system for us. Unless the secondary can get going earlier we usually do poorly with this type of setup. No use in trying to pinpoint solutions right now. Although I am thinking of how horrible traffic will be Sunday night with rain or with snow. 

The primary and initial southerly flow look way too strong right now for most of us, and the coastal low gets going too late. It all has to be nudged south for that to change. It can still happen but right now I’d wager on it being mostly rain or a brief mix near the city. These primary lows where we wait forever for it to transfer offshore don’t work out here. 

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, that snowmap is way, way off. The mid-levels are completely torched on the Euro, all the way into southern New England 

Maybe but that 6 inches total in the Poconos sounds about right.  Thats what most of the local forecasts are saying.

 

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How has Upton not issued even a wind advisory?

I feel like the NWS has downplayed the wind for tomorrow as to not "upset peoples holiday" and/or deter people from coming to the parade.

I might be way off but they do seem to be on the lowest side of all forecasts I've seen for days.

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If youre discussing model run comparisons, please post both runs so nothing can get lost in the interpretation. 

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9 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

How has Upton not issued even a wind advisory?

I feel like the NWS has downplayed the wind for tomorrow as to not "upset peoples holiday" and/or deter people from coming to the parade.

I might be way off but they do seem to be on the lowest side of all forecasts I've seen for days.

Wrong thread I guess. My bad.

Mods please move if need be

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Okay weather geeks let me pose this question to you about the energy in question , I have heard BR say this for years and once he brought it to my attention I have found it to be fairly accurate but the NM Rule states that where the energy enters on the West Coast that is usually the same longitude and latitude that it exits on the East coast = So is that what will / could most likely take place ? I think it probably will but I am a novice and I realize there are a lot of dynamics in play here, thoughts ?

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1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Okay weather geeks let me pose this question to you about the energy in question , I have heard BR say this for years and once he brought it to my attention I have found it to be fairly accurate but the NM Rule states that where the energy enters on the West Coast that is usually the same longitude and latitude that it exits on the East coast = So is that what will / could most likely take place ? I think it probably will but I am a novice and I realize there are a lot of dynamics in play here, thoughts ?

That was Henry Margusity's mantra way back when.

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The primary and initial southerly flow look way too strong right now for most of us, and the coastal low gets going too late. It all has to be nudged south for that to change. It can still happen but right now I’d wager on it being mostly rain or a brief mix near the city. These primary lows where we wait forever for it to transfer offshore don’t work out here. 

Yep timing not that favorable either, precip coming in during the daytime hours on Sunday will allow some warming before precip comes in. Of course last November precip came in the afternoon and we all know what happened but as of now this looks like a less favorable setup for front end snow.

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9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

 

Yep timing not that favorable either, precip coming in during the daytime hours on Sunday will allow some warming before precip comes in. Of course last November precip came in the afternoon and we all know what happened but as of now this looks like a less favorable setup for front end snow.

Let it play out nobody knows anything yet!

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The eps was impressive.  If a low transfers off the nj coast and bombs out , it will help draw in cold air. Eps almost showed that with many members showing accumulating snow. 

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Let it play out nobody knows anything yet!

 

54 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We are days away. This isnt a bad pattern.

GFS showing signs of being a little better, still don't think this is our storm but hoping to see some flakes

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9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

 

GFS showing signs of being a little better, still don't think this is our storm but hoping to see some flakes

Same man

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