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WxUSAF

March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

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10 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

4am panel on NAM sure is impressive. It’s basically advertising a couple inches in just a couple hours 

Sure like the distribution of snowfall, maybe might even be able to add another inch , at this point I like the consistency of the NAM and the Euro. 

remember the old EE rule, back in the day ?  

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Such a little baby storm but IF I get the NAMs depiction, id consider it my 2nd best storm lol...3 hours of heavy snow and 2-3” lol

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Just now, jaydreb said:

NAM is enough to cause school and possibly OPM delays.  

NAM is enough to cause a closure for many lol

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NAM has been pretty darn consistent showing 1-4 inches around the area. Would be nice to wake up to Friday morning. 

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Very much liking what I’m seeing for central Maryland west and nw of Baltimore. Consistent with 2-4” on tonight’s models for Howard county and northern MoCo 

rgem is likely overdone per usual. I typically go with 2/3 of what it spits out. NAM RGEM and euro all seem to be pointing to central md getting a decent event. DC is in and out of jack, but I assume we’ll have a better idea by 12z tomorrow  

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z RGEM crushes C MD to DC

rgem_apcpn_neus_39.thumb.png.3eb7773b845806974ecc0d0abce1ae82.png

If this event was happening in the middle of Jan it would be a non event. Late season climo helps juice things up. That said... rgem is prob too aggressive but the NAMs work fine for my yard. I'd really like to break 30" this season, 

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Models continuing the trend this winter to juice up as we approach an event. I dont ever remember a winter where that has happened so consistently.

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Hey everyone. Been insanely busy with my radar certification. Been an absolute blast, but my god is it a lot to take in. These last two days going to wear me out.

Anywho. Finally took the chance to look into this event. Looks like a good consensus building overall. One thing I’ve noticed is a slightly stronger vort moving into the area with a better diffluent signature leading into the start. Could see some solid banding structures during the storm height with 1”/hr rates plausible. 2-4” is looking real solid, but 4-6” is at play with the favored area north of I-70. Wouldn’t rule out the areas south of I-70 that climatologically have favor. That’s my guess for now. Hope I see some cool pictures on Friday. This is about the height of my input for the storm. Good luck, and hope to have a lot more to talk about with what’s down the pipe.


.

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3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey everyone. Been insanely busy with my radar certification. Been an absolute blast, but my god is it a lot to take in. These last two days going to wear me out.

Anywho. Finally took the chance to look into this event. Looks like a good consensus building overall. One thing I’ve noticed is a slightly stronger vort moving into the area with a better diffluent signature leading into the start. Could see some solid banding structures during the storm height with 1”/hr rates plausible. 2-4” is looking real solid, but 4-6” is at play with the favored area north of I-70. Wouldn’t rule out the areas south of I-70 that climatologically have favor. That’s my guess for now. Hope I see some cool pictures on Friday. This is about the height of my input for the storm. Good luck, and hope to have a lot more to talk about with what’s down the pipe.


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I hope everyone gets plenty of snow with this!

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
406 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-501-505-506-
281700-
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-
Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore,
Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt,
Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda,
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia,
Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale,
Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Falls Church, Warrenton, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn,
and Sterling
406 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

...SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR
THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS...

Snow will develop tonight and continue into early Friday morning
before tapering off after sunrise. The snow will mix with sleet
early Friday morning. Accumulations are forecast to range from 1
to 2 inches along the I-66 corridor, to 2 to 4 inches north of
Washington DC. The highest amounts will likely occur across
northern Loudon, Montgomery, and Frederick Counties.

The greatest threat for impact from this snowfall during the
Friday morning rush hour will be north of the Capital Beltway
Interstate 495.

If you plan on commuting Friday morning, be aware of the potential
for travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel
time, and consider using public transportation and telework
options.

Stay tuned for future updates on this winter weather event, and
the potential for Winter Weather Advisories to be issued later
today.

 

 

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Overnight Euro and EPS have shifted north with the strip of max snowfall as well as juiced up somewhat. Euro places the max strip just north of the PA line but now also shows a weaker secondary max strip developing just west of Balt and running east. Kuchera is below and runs to 2pm. We do see more snow afterwards into Sat, especially the northern tier but that is more in response to the developing coastal.

eurokucherafri.gif.a7d8ac9f682ee8fc7260a25e1710be6c.gif

Little late in the game for the EPS but it does favor the max strip (2 1/2") setting up farther south from the PA line down through Balt. The control though favors the op run.

 

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