Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper

[Sugarloaf1989]

WU is forecasting 7" here in Enfield with snow from 11am to 9pm. Sleet until 11pm, ZR until 1am, then rain.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. 

If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8".

 

When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does.  

 

I have that as my guess with more confidence 4-5. 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

I do not think Gore or Whiteface mix with sleet for any real period of time.   

Ok we may be on the same page.  "Any real period of time"... I agree in that it won't affect accums much but there could be pockets of pellets or really shitty bouncing granular flakes.  The line I gave is where I'm thinking pure snow with real flakes.

[CoastalWx]

Felt good to bitch this morning. Try to quit, but it sucks you back in....like a wheelchair bound 60yr old to Pickles.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. 

If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8".

 

When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does.  

 

Yea..I think 5" in Boston.

[8611Blizz]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have that as my guess with more confidence 4-5. 

Yeah they all seem to be gung ho to bring in the sleet by 7pm. The maps all indicate no change until 10 or after so they clearly don't believe what they are putting on the air.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Yeah they all seem to be gung ho to bring in the sleet by 7pm. The maps all indicate no change until 10 or after so they clearly don't believe what they are putting on the air.

I'd be very surprised if BOS hadn't flipped by 03z...if they hold out until 03z, they'll get 8"+. They can prob score 4-5" if they last until 00z which is roughly when I'd put the changeover time at. 

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be very surprised if BOS hadn't flipped by 03z...if they hold out until 03z, they'll get 8"+. They can prob score 5" if they last until 00z which is roughly when I'd put the changeover time at. 

Yeah I know I seem to be obsessing over this but when what they say doesn't match what is on screen it leads to confusion for the general public.

[NorEastermass128]

Are we thinking about a 1:00pm start time for E MA?  

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Weak 

I’ll round rumps that bounce when ..well anyway . Had a great time in room 256 at Spruce peak. Jacuzzi was great had icicle in my hair last nite . Age  40-49 is where I do the most damage 

Note to self, avoid this room if I ever stay there

[CoastalWx]

Man euro is a thump after 00z. 90 min difference in sleet timing could be like 2”. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Are we thinking about a 1:00pm start time for E MA?  

Down this way. yes.  Up in NE MA it may be an hour or 2 later

[dendrite]

There's some wiggle room there on the 3k NAM for BOS. The max profile temp gets above 0C before 00z, but +2C doesn't until 2z. The GFS is quite a bit colder, but I'd lean toward the Nammy. If the NAM is 1C too warm that could mean a couple hours extra of snow vs crap.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man euro is a thump after 00z. 90 min difference in sleet timing could be like 2”. 

Yeah that is crazy precip rates there. Ray would prob score 8"+ on the euro. But for everyone an hour or two difference could mean 2-3". 

[Damage In Tolland]

How much zr for CT on Euro?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much zr for CT on Euro?

It's not that much. You're already getting dryslotted by 06z. Mostly just a snow to absolute scalping. Maybe hours and hours of light glazes afterward but it doesn't add up to that much qpf. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

So only half washed away?

Or less, as Jeff noted.  Morning AFD from GYX guessed at late week RA similar to what I got on Jan. 24, and that only settled the pack 2-3" despite having 11" of powder (slightly IP-enriched) from 4 days earlier.  (CAD not allowing temps out of the 30s was key.)  The current pack is so solid (as I learned moving 3-4 tons off the porch roof Saturday) that I'm pretty confident the depth will be significantly greater this weekend than the 26" this morning.  AM p/c forecast had 5-9 tomorrow night and 3-5 Wednesday, GYX "expected" for Farmington was 11" this morning, up 1" from yesterday PM.  Unless something really changes, I anticipate an 8-12 forecast going into the event.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Or less, as Jeff noted.  Morning AFD from GYX guessed at late week RA similar to what I got on Jan. 24, and that only settled the pack 2-3" despite having 11" of powder (slightly IP-enriched) from 4 days earlier.  (CAD not allowing temps out of the 30s was key.)  The current pack is so solid (as I learned moving 3-4 tons off the porch roof Saturday) that I'm pretty confident the depth will be significantly greater this weekend than the 26" this morning.  AM p/c forecast had 5-9 tomorrow night and 3-5 Wednesday, GYX "expected" for Farmington was 11" this morning, up 1" from yesterday PM.  Unless something really changes, I anticipate an 8-12 forecast going into the event.

Nothing has changed in my thinking to come off that range, Euro has been steady showing that for several runs now and the Meso's are catching up.

[highways1]

I have a flight at Logan at 2:20 PM tomorrow. Do we think that's still a go or should I try to move it up?

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, highways1 said:

I have a flight at Logan at 2:20 PM tomorrow. Do we think that's still a go or should I try to move it up?

 I would definitely look into moving it up. The weatherwise it may be OK, the airlines will start the canceling stuff before the snow starts. 

[Whineminster]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

If only we could've cancelled the November snowstorms in 2012-2013 and 2014-2015...imagine how much snow we would've gotten that winter

Thanksgiving snow and after is fine....but before that it's a bad omen, especially when it was so cold this November.  

[SouthCoastMA]

2-4" here. That's a W this winter

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Whineminster said:

Thanksgiving snow and after is fine....but before that it's a bad omen, especially when it was so cold this November.  

We should've cancelled the November 6-7, 2012 snowstorm. Imagine how much more we would've gotten that winter...

[tamarack]

2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Thanksgiving snow and after is fine....but before that it's a bad omen, especially when it was so cold this November.  

Novie snow of 2014 came before T-Day.  It was about the only overperformer I saw that snow season.

[HoarfrostHubb]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. 

If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8".

 

When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does.  

 

I would take the under on that for BOS

[CT Rain]

It's strange seeing the NAM so much warmer than the Euro/GFS

[Sugarloaf1989]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not that much. You're already getting dryslotted by 06z. Mostly just a snow to absolute scalping. Maybe hours and hours of light glazes afterward but it doesn't add up to that much qpf. 

So power grid phailure?

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes. It will go fairly quickly from sleet to zr. Just like the last several. Will Be a narrow zone of significant zr

Too bad you gave the Closer the wrong info...this is a Sleet fest, not much ZR with this one. 

[highways1]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I would definitely look into moving it up. The weatherwise it may be OK, the airlines will start the canceling stuff before the snow starts. 

Thanks, ironically I'm flying to MSP and they're getting the storm tonight and into tomorrow morning so I'm weighing that. I'd think they're pretty good at clearing snowing there but obviously safety is tops.

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. 

If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8".

 

When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does.  

 

Who does the observations at the airports? The FAA? Are they actually paid to do it like it's in their job description? Or are they just sort of doing a favor for the NWS?