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WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NAM is developing the wave well northeast of us. The trend in the globals has been east for 48 hours now.  This was bullseying WV to central PA 3 days ago.  Hope the good looks yesterday weren’t just a temporary pit stop as the guidance continues to shift northeast. Not thrilled with how it’s heading. 

The old north trend inside 48 hours. 

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3k Looks to change DC ~19z tomorrow.  90% of this is snow with temps hovering around 32-34 in the immediate burbs.

3k 12z.png

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Assuming the timing on the NAM is correct, it seems there is a first wave favoring areas closer to the MD/pa line around 0900 with temps in the whole column supporting snow and supporting sleet mix closer to DC. Then the main chunk of snow comes in closer to 1300 which seems to be a speed up on terms of onset time and could cause pretty significant impacts on traffic assuming I'm reading the timing correctly.

Boundary layer temps are 33 according to the 3k NAM in the DC metro so impact will depend on rates. Soundings clearly support snow as the ptype.

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

3k Looks to change DC ~19z tomorrow.  90% of this is snow with temps hovering around 32-34 in the immediate burbs.

 

Thanks for posting this.  LWX forecast of 1-2" looks good for DC/immediate burbs.

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NAM is developing the wave well northeast of us. The trend in the globals has been east for 48 hours now.  This was bullseying WV to central PA 3 days ago.  Hope the good looks yesterday weren’t just a temporary pit stop as the guidance continues to shift northeast. Not thrilled with how it’s heading. 

Same thing the ICON has been doing for days. Gets its act together too late for us.

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I would take the 3K and run at this point, especially with the way latest guidance is tredning. Not as good for DC, but most of Maryland picks up 2-4 with that.

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

3k Looks to change DC ~19z tomorrow.  90% of this is snow with temps hovering around 32-34 in the immediate burbs.

3k 12z.png

This would be best case scenario imo. Areas north of DC have potential to capitalize in the morning and areas east have potential to capitalize in the afternoon. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I would take the 3K and run at this point, especially with the way latest guidance is tredning. Not as good for DC, but most of Maryland picks up 2-4 with that.

Yea I guess...but that back edge of decent qpf keeps creeping east every run. Those of us west of 95 are running out of room on the cliffs edge. 95 east the problem is temps. 

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

This would be best case scenario imo. Areas north of DC have potential to capitalize in the morning and areas east have potential to capitalize in the afternoon. 

I doubt that morning band is much. Temps are really questionable even up here.  And even if it dropped a quick 1-2” it probably would melt during the lull then the afternoon drops another 1” and the numbers say we got 3” but only 1” otg. I hate that crap. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea I guess...but that back edge of decent qpf keeps creeping east every run. Those of us west of 95 are running out of room on the cliffs edge. 95 east the problem is temps. 

<blah blah DC to bmore jackpot blah blah>  haha :guitar:

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am gonna pull a Ji and say the NAM just took away all of my snow. I get zip. NOTHING.

Yea people in the eastern 1/2 of the forum trying to hold on and play “it’s not so bad” but the trends have been on the wall for the western 1/2 of the region for a while. I’ve gone from the heavy precip being west of me to the heavy being east of me over the last 3 days. Snow maps don’t tell the tale locally since temps are an issue 95 east but go back and look at runs 2-3 data ago that gave WV up to State Collegd PA 6”+ and now that area is nothing and the precip max is 95 east. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea people in the eastern 1/2 of the forum trying to hold on and play “it’s not so bad” but the trends have been on the wall for the western 1/2 of the region for a while. I’ve gone from the heavy precip being west of me to the heavy being east of me over the last 3 days. Snow maps don’t tell the tale locally since temps are an issue 95 east but go back and look at runs 2-3 data ago that gave WV up to State Collegd PA 6”+ and now that area is nothing and the precip max is 95 east. 

Agreed. I hate to keep touting the ICON. But go look at the 6Z Saturday run. That is when it started playing out this scenario and it has stayed that way since then. Still hasnt verified. But if it does nice performance from that model.

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13 minutes ago, LP08 said:

3k Looks to change DC ~19z tomorrow.  90% of this is snow with temps hovering around 32-34 in the immediate burbs.

3k 12z.png

Ok... I'm ready for this "east trend" to halt immediately.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I guess...but that back edge of decent qpf keeps creeping east every run. Those of us west of 95 are running out of room on the cliffs edge. 95 east the problem is temps. 

Fronto! Rates!

lol I have never been too interested in this beyond a quick coating. My official forecast is for an inch. If that verifies I would be thrilled.

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Just now, Fozz said:

Ok... I'm ready for this "east trend" to halt immediately.

Agreed.  My post was in jest to PSU.  The thing that bugs me the most is that when this first came up on the radar, temps were never really issue but the real cold push now isn't until Wednesday.  I fully expect down near me to have 34 and "snow" with a dusting-1" at this point.  I hope I'm wrong but we never do well with cold chasing precip as its usually delayed and in this situation even an hour can screw us.

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The trough is going negative tilt with a lot of cross boundary flow and some pretty good forcing. This isn’t a typical front. 

But the waves impacts will be narrow. Somewhere is getting a 3-5” thump from this. But it could be north or northeast of us. That doesn’t mean it failed because it was a “typical front”. This is anything but. 

even w/ it going neg, I'm just not sure I buy a neg tilted frontal boundary getting 2" down.  Sure hope your are right, and while the forcing shown above says maybe, I'll remain skeptical until proven otherwise w/ this one.  Sure hope your right though....believe me.  

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I doubt that morning band is much. Temps are really questionable even up here.  And even if it dropped a quick 1-2” it probably would melt during the lull then the afternoon drops another 1” and the numbers say we got 3” but only 1” otg. I hate that crap. 

If you look at the 3k’s dipiction, the morning band stays in place and just hands off to the actual frontal band. There really isn’t a lull. I doubt temps get much above freezing tomorrow north and west of Baltimore if 3k is right. 

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Just now, MD Snow said:

If you look at the 3k’s dipiction, the morning band stays in place and just hands off to the actual frontal band. There really isn’t a lull. I doubt temps get much above freezing tomorrow north and west of Baltimore if 3k is right. 

@mappy with the visualization

 

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I think as long as we have low expectations of the FROPA this could be a fun dynamic couple hours tomorrow afternoon and early evening. I still think someone will pick up 3+ inches and some will be wondering “what snow”. Pretty much a nowcast deal to see where the best dynamics set up. 

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Yeah.  East trend sucks.  But I’ve done ok this winter.  You kids to the east may score an inch or two.  I’ll take one for the team.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs went wagons west. Lol. Good times. 

i didnt think NAM range started till tomorow at 9am!

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