• Member Statistics

    15,858
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Waltzman
    Newest Member
    Waltzman
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I’m not saying it won’t wreak any havoc I’m just saying I don’t think it’s that comparable of a system in my opinion 

If we get 2-4 Tuesday night and then temps in the teens Wed morning you can make the same bet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That really isn't cold for what is supposed to be the coldest time of the year.

You should transfer your hobby to clinically depressed, negative and wrong and cease cluttering up space here.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He really is an awful poster though.  He's one of the few here that make being here unpleasant most of the time.

You have the power.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I see a definite east trend the last 4 runs. If my area fails again that’s my guess how. Wave stays mostly east. 

It's possible. Seeing the 0z and 12z euro basically being a carbon copy with synoptics is comforting. A bit too close for the ensembles but the euro control and ensemble suite strongly supports the op. 

The trickiest thing since day one is there is literally no room on the margins. What would normally be an insignificant shift is make or break on this one. Especially as you go west. I feel pretty good for my hood though. Dead center is a good place to be at 48 hour leads with a setup like this. I'm close to setting a 2" bar but don't have confidence yet even with the short leads. Even a inch would be great considering what's coming on wed/thurs. Deep winter is coming even if only for a couple days. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro op if correct would be a lot of record lows 

 

Screenshot_20190127-175623_Chrome_crop_540x359.jpg

That is calling for all-time records in my home territory in southern MN.  The fresh snowpack there will help, but this isn’t 94 or 96.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

That is calling for all-time records in my home territory in southern MN.  The fresh snowpack there will help, but this isn’t 94 or 96.

Yeah -3635 would be crazy!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Where is Yoder and what did you do to his account?   The real yoder would have been telling us about marginal boundary level temps, it's only advisory level and that it's going to be 70 next week.

Wait...

I did mention the 70 next week in another thread ;)

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. Lets just lock the FV3 up right now and call it a night. 2-5 region wide and through both metro's. Sounds like a win to me.

Absolutely...FV3 is money.  Tuesday evening looks fun.

C788B7C2-FECC-4B65-A06C-EAE341B287A1.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps.  These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday.  By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left.  

4546D70C-57AE-42D2-99C3-FC723CE23CAD.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps.  These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday.  By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left.  

4546D70C-57AE-42D2-99C3-FC723CE23CAD.png

They'll definitely be marginal where I'm at but the past several runs of the GFS has shown some decent, if not brief heavy snow soundings with that window of opportunity.  If it pans out that way, we could pick up a couple inches of snow relatively quickly.  I've seen that scenario before and the last time it happened, we lost power for 3 days.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps.  These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday.  By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left.  

4546D70C-57AE-42D2-99C3-FC723CE23CAD.png

It snowed heavy and stuck to the roads at 35 in November and I live south of DC.  Dont think it would be a problem in late January, at night.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, GATECH said:

It snowed heavy and stuck to the roads at 35 in November and I live south of DC.  Dont think it would be a problem in late January, at night.

Yeah it can definitely happen, but these rain to snow transitions have broken both ways for us in recent years.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we get 4-5 inches or if we bust and get less than an inch. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, GATECH said:

It snowed heavy and stuck to the roads at 35 in November and I live south of DC.  Dont think it would be a problem in late January, at night.

Agree as long as rates are there (which appears to be the case). Best case would be solid rates shortly after onset before the bulk of the precip comes. A bit of a wildard there though but lay down a nice coating quick enough and the rest will accumulate easily. 

Even though Kuchera has consistently shown above 10:1 I'm not sure that's possible with onset above freezing during the daylight hours. The mid and upper column gets cold in a hurry though with the cold push into the midlevels during the meat of the event. With shallow cold confined to the surface and what appears to be good conditions in the DGZ is a little unique. Might be big fluffy high ratio dendrites in spite of temps near or above freezing. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah it can definitely happen, but these rain to snow transitions have broken both ways for us in recent years.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we get 4-5 inches or if we bust and get less than an inch. 

Totally, actually don’t remember any really that have worked out, 2011 comes to mind but that was different setup.  My bar is a sloppy inch for my area and would call it a win, anything more would be pure gravy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Totally, actually don’t remember any really that have worked out, 2011 comes to mind but that was different setup.  My bar is a sloppy inch for my area and would call it a win, anything more would be pure gravy.

I thought there was one in 2015 that started out warm but gave us 6 inches...I could be wrong though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

That is calling for all-time records in my home territory in southern MN.  The fresh snowpack there will help, but this isn’t 94 or 96.

I grew up on a farm in northeast Iowa and have never experienced the -34 forecast for Waterloo although have seen it in the forecast on several occasions.  I've experienced many -20 to -25 nights and a few below that but never -34.  Until recently, I believe the all time record in Waterloo was -32 on March 1st.  

 

Elkader has the all time low in my area of minus 50 something; guess that is safe. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I thought there was one in 2015 that started out warm but gave us 6 inches...I could be wrong though. 

March 5 2015. Most snow fell in the daylight IIRC but it did change from rain to snow very early morning so sun angle wasn't the biggest deal. Got 7" here followed by single digits. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps.  These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday.  By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left.  

4546D70C-57AE-42D2-99C3-FC723CE23CAD.png

It will be from 4-7 and sun has waned. 11-2 and I would have the same concern 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.