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WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Come on, admit it. We all knew in our hearts how this would play out. :)

Reading the new england thread they were all a bunch of Ji's after the 0z euro. Now after the 6z euro it's a bunch of AWT. I suppose one thing has been certain this year is the late game north adjustment...congrats Montreal and Nova Scotia 

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I honestly thought this would be snow tv in 4K. Now I have to pull out the rabbit ears and pray I can dial in a snowflake on my 13” black & white. :unsure:

Anyway—we got anything else to look forward besides next winter?

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What happened to the cutlery content? We all know it's over. We're should go to the panic room and move on

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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45 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

And here Ji was upset the Euro was taking away his 8 inches and only giving him 6 yesterday. Wonder how he will take this. :lol:

This would be funny except for the fact it’s taking away OUR snow too.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All our busts have happened inside 24-48. Give it time. Disaster incoming.

Actually, every storm this year has looked good in medium range, crapped out in the 48-72hr range, then come back strong in the last 36-48hrs. Not saying it will happen like that again, but...

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Actually, every storm this year has looked good in medium range, crapped out in the 48-72hr range, then come back strong in the last 36-48hrs. Not saying it will happen like that again, but...

I agree!  The Euro does this quite frequently. I’m seeing on Twitter (Cranky) that the GFS has snow for us on Tuesday night. It is way too early to give up on anything.  Even if it is a few hours of rain changing to snow, following by a deep freeze for 2 -3 days. That can be fairly significant in our area. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Actually, every storm this year has looked good in medium range, crapped out in the 48-72hr range, then come back strong in the last 36-48hrs. Not saying it will happen like that again, but...

Oh, I’m talking about mby. I just wanted to post in a place that knows what it’s like to see snow 

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51a5c4db21159446b546f

 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

The NAM still looks fun for a couple hours at least.

We have a precedent for this with arctic front heavy squall amazing 15 minutes kind of deal.  I’m in.  

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06UT GFS COBB http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb_help.pdf shows 3+ hours of snow or rain/snow at DCA (4 - ~7 PM Tuesday evening).  Total precipitation is on the 0.5". Temperature at 3 PM is 40 degrees so.  
Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
190129/2200Z  64  32013KT  32.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119    8:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39  100|  0|  0
190129/2300Z  65  30011KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    8:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42   66|  0| 34
190130/0000Z  66  31012KT  31.5F  SNOW   20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051   11:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
190130/0100Z  67  31010KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   11:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48   78|  0| 22

Indeed so quiet hear ... and I doubt we're all at Sunday services

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57 minutes ago, LP08 said:

The NAM still looks fun for a couple hours at least.

that's what this is.  with a low heading into the great lakes dragging a cold front with it, i'm not sure how much max potential there is with this, but if we can get a summer style squall or two out of it, then it should coat.  i'm not expecting a 6 hour snowstorm with this, but if a flukey low can develop overhead, then who knows.  

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Just now, T. August said:

Was it in ‘15, that the bad-ass squall dropped 1.5-2” in an hour?

I want that again.

Yup. That was mid Feb, and it got winter going that year. I ended up with 3 here. That was a crazy/fun event.

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1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:
06UT GFS COBB http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb_help.pdf shows 3+ hours of snow or rain/snow at DCA (4 - ~7 PM Tuesday evening).  Total precipitation is on the 0.5". Temperature at 3 PM is 40 degrees so.  
Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
190129/2200Z  64  32013KT  32.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119    8:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39  100|  0|  0
190129/2300Z  65  30011KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    8:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42   66|  0| 34
190130/0000Z  66  31012KT  31.5F  SNOW   20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051   11:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
190130/0100Z  67  31010KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   11:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48   78|  0| 22

Indeed so quiet hear ... and I doubt we're all at Sunday services

I just got in from church.  I prayed that all the insanity here goes away. ;).

Wow 20:1 as it ends...should be some fun snowTV at the very least.  

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10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

that's what this is.  with a low heading into the great lakes dragging a cold front with it, i'm not sure how much max potential there is with this, but if we can get a summer style squall or two out of it, then it should coat.  i'm not expecting a 6 hour snowstorm with this, but if a flukey low can develop overhead, then who knows.  

It’s always hard to see high end solutions and watch them back off as we move in.  We should still see some snow and accumulation.

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LOL. The 6Z Euro caved to the ICON. I will never talk smack about that model again if this verifies. 

On the bright side if the ICON is right it hits us nicely on Friday/Saturday.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh, I’m talking about mby. I just wanted to post in a place that knows what it’s like to see snow 

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51a5c4db21159446b546f

 

Russell Crowe Javert is a very apt GIF: lots of hype and noise and ultimately extraordinarily disappointing

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