87storms Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gfs is backing flow more than 12z even at short leads. Obvious as 54-60 hours. If anything like the nam is going to happen, that's what can do it. it looks better so far...trough a bit more negative. not like the nam, but better than 12z i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gfs is backing flow more than 12z even at short leads. Obvious as 54-60 hours. If anything like the nam is going to happen, that's what can do it. Trough more negative...looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Trough more negative...looks nice. I just want 6" of thundersnow in 2 hours. Seems reasonable 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Nice shifts by the GFS...odd seeing things potentially breaking in our favor at short leads for the 2nd time this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Gfs drops over .5 qpf over everyone around the cities and burbs. If the mids are too warm it could possibly be all snow... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What the nam shows would be awesome and I think the high end scenario for us. 3 to 6 inches of over an 8 hour period with falling temps. Trough going negative early enough to really benefit us. TO bad it's the nam at 84 hours Mini 1/26/11 on the NAM right there. Only difference would be it's temps progressively falling versus a paste bomb at 31 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gfs drops over .5 qpf over everyone around the cities and burbs. If the mids are too warm it could possibly be all snow... might have to shave some qpf off to start with temps around 40, but they drop pretty fast. even if that's 0.3", gotta think that's a solid 2-3" along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, 87storms said: might have to shave some qpf off to start with temps around 40, but they drop pretty fast. even if that's 0.3", gotta think that's a solid 2-3" along 95. As depicted in 18z easy 2 -3...blizzard like for a few hours. Comes at sunset. Perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: might have to shave some qpf off to start with temps around 40, but they drop pretty fast. even if that's 0.3", gotta think that's a solid 2-3" along 95. I've said this a lot already but it really is a razor's edge. Euro is colder leading in and mostly if not entirely snow when it counts. Maybe the gfs is too warm? Hard to say. Too bad the panel before this one is too warm up through 850 but this sounding is a heavy snow and high ratio. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I've said this a lot already but it really is a razor's edge. Euro is colder leading in and mostly if not entirely snow when it counts. Maybe the gfs is too warm? Hard to say. Too bad the panel before this one is too warm up through 850 but this sounding is a heavy snow and high ratio. An encouraging thing with this panel is good lift with the DGZ. That would help purge any warm layer and make a cleaner, perhaps quicker transition to snow. It's not like this is some low energy weak clipper moving into a stale airmass. The cold air has a decent punch to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Surprised to see how juicy this run was. Has almost .7 for the northern tier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just for fun... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Just for fun... Rpm ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Just for fun... tony is the ultimate weenie with a professional weather job. Big “what if” guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Surprised to see how juicy this run was. Has almost .7 for the northern tier. Very unusual "arctic front". Upper level flow is really backing to our north and the entire front itself it neutral or even negative tilt so it's one of the slowest moving arctic fronts I've ever seen. Also has a southern connection so it's juicy. A lot to like for a "frontal event". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Just for fun... That guy went down the toilet so long ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I pretty much completely disagree with Pann. Subsidence to the west of the coastal and east of the front will keep the two features completely separate. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Ok. We know. Tony Pann and Justin Berk are huge But seriously we’re not!? They just have a broader audience as part of their gigs. I mean if I was on TV, I’d likely be the same. Or worse. Could you imagine @Jion TV though?? The public would be cliff jumping every model run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very unusual "arctic front". Upper level flow is really backing to our north and the entire front itself it neutral or even negative tilt so it's one of the slowest moving arctic fronts I've ever seen. Also has a southern connection so it's juicy. A lot to like for a "frontal event". This one is going to be fun to track right up til game time. A little early to get too excited but I can definitely see the upside. As they say arctic fronts love to squeeze all the moisture out of the atmosphere and with the majority of the precip. behind the front good things can happen. This is not like the Feb. 2015 front where we new the max. potential was 2 inches give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I pretty much completely disagree with Pann. Subsidence to the west of the coastal and east of the front will keep the two features completely separate. Terrible man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Nobody mentioned the ICON because it is ugly and one of the ways we could fail miserably. It is slower and weaker with the southern energy and tries to pop to our NE. By the time it gets its act together it is too late for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: tony is the ultimate weenie with a professional weather job. Big “what if” guy He's the worst of the worst. The JB of the Baltimore TV market. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Need some ratio help here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Great thread here how that SE coastal impacts the arctic front. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I could see how the coastal could help in the mids and maybe the surface between the 2 features. Cyclonic flow on the backside of the coastal could help enhace the wedge that gets eroded with return flow in front of the approaching low along the front. My plan is to blend the wettest model and coldest model unless we get a legit bomb on the nam. Then I'll hug the nam exclusively. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I could see how the coastal could help in the mids and maybe the surface between the 2 features. Cyclonic flow on the backside of the coastal could help enhace the wedge that gets eroded with return flow in front of the approaching low along the front. My plan is to blend the wettest model and coldest model unless we get a legit bomb on the nam. Then I'll hug the nam exclusively. We will get 6 inches and pann will claim the systems merged but it went a bit more east than he thought sparing us from 24 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nobody mentioned the ICON because it is ugly and one of the ways we could fail miserably. It is slower and weaker with the southern energy and tries to pop to our NE. By the time it gets its act together it is too late for everyone. It’s a good thing it’s the ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 21 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Need some ratio help here Right now we're only using the gfs for qpf so it was a great run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 42 minutes ago, HighStakes said: This one is going to be fun to track right up til game time. A little early to get too excited but I can definitely see the upside. As they say arctic fronts love to squeeze all the moisture out of the atmosphere and with the majority of the precip. behind the front good things can happen. This is not like the Feb. 2015 front where we new the max. potential was 2 inches give or take. Think this passage will be as dynamic as the one in 2015? That was a pretty intense 20 mins. Reminded me of some of the events we had in Ohio growing up. One difference between 2015 and Tuesday appears to be the pace at which it comes through. If I recall correctly 2015 zoomed through as the front raced across from the midwest eastward across the DELMARVA. Tuesday's frontal passage seems much slower, but that will also give it a longer dwell time over the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Scraff said: Just for fun... Does he really want us to guess what happens? Does he truly not know? Our regions get bypassed and NYC->BOS make up for lost time with rain to heavy wet snow. Not happening anyway....let it go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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