• Member Statistics

    15,757
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago12
    Newest Member
    Chicago12
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

Recommended Posts

Just now, Chris78 said:

Do you know how the 18z and 6z Euro runs are scoring compared to the traditional runs? 

Not really, I follow several sources, but have not heard any stats about scoring on the 18z and 6z compared to traditional runs. 

What I have heard, as you know, those off hour runs of the Euro are useful for trend analysis.     

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Ji said:
12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
At least you won't have to stay up late tomorrow

I've spent very little time on this threat thankfully

The good thing is there's still enough time for it to come roaring back before it vaporizes again. 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, nj2va said:

My bar is at 0.5”...more than that and I’m happy considering we don’t usually do well in these types of setups.  

I think that is realistic. With maybe some 2 inch lollies. Someone will get under a heavier band but it is based on the speed of the frontal passage with the energy riding the front. The ICON has that energy staying behind longer so the NE gets it instead of us. Everything is still on the table at this point.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think that is realistic. With maybe some 2 inch lollies. Someone will get under a heavier band but it is based on the speed of the frontal passage with the energy riding the front. The ICON has that energy staying behind longer so the NE gets it instead of us. Everything is still on the table at this point.

I've been really hesitant to set a bar on this one. When guidance was showing neg tilt and a low popping on the front it could easily be a pretty decent event. That idea is fading unfortunately. We'll still likely see some snow fall and prob some accums but the energetic version would have been far better. Still time but it has the feel of a mid range model error and we're getting a clearer picture now. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been really hesitant to set a bar on this one. When guidance was showing neg tilt and a low popping on the front it could easily be a pretty decent event. That idea is fading unfortunately. We'll still likely see some snow fall and prob some accums but the energetic version would have been far better. Still time but it has the feel of a mid range model error and we're getting a clearer picture now. 
Didn't the most recent euro have this? 12z?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
I've been really hesitant to set a bar on this one. When guidance was showing neg tilt and a low popping on the front it could easily be a pretty decent event. That idea is fading unfortunately. We'll still likely see some snow fall and prob some accums but the energetic version would have been far better. Still time but it has the feel of a mid range model error and we're getting a clearer picture now. 

Didn't the most recent euro have this? 12z?

It did but the trough isn't nearly as sharp or negative as the 12z run yesterday. If that's reality then upside is pretty limited from what we're seeing at 0z so far. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, MD Snow said:

Fv3 looks good imo

It does. Gfs is still dropping .50 qpf through much of the region and fv3 isn't that much less. If the gfs has surface temps and mids wrong it would make things more interesting. Fv3 was colder in the mids and surface. Icon is the only global that stinks tonight. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It does. Gfs is still dropping .50 qpf through much of the region and fv3 isn't that much less. If the gfs has surface temps and mids wrong it would make things more interesting. Fv3 was colder in the mids and surface. Icon is the only global that stinks tonight. 
Icon is only model showing late week potential too lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It does. Gfs is still dropping .50 qpf through much of the region and fv3 isn't that much less. If the gfs has surface temps and mids wrong it would make things more interesting. Fv3 was colder in the mids and surface. Icon is the only global that stinks tonight. 

I’m super cautious with this setup in terms of accumulations but I think we can all agree that the gfs really stinks with surface temps and meso features in setups like this. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
It does. Gfs is still dropping .50 qpf through much of the region and fv3 isn't that much less. If the gfs has surface temps and mids wrong it would make things more interesting. Fv3 was colder in the mids and surface. Icon is the only global that stinks tonight. 

Icon is only model showing late week potential too lol

Yea, that's a bit of a paradox. Gfs is building a west based -nao inside of 10 days and almost forces a guaranteed cutter under us. So we hug the fv3 for tues, the icon for next weekend, and gfs next tuesday. Sounds like a plan.

  • Like 8
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's starting. Get the shovels ready. You're gonna need 'em!

@BobChill Get the FACE ready. You'll be using it --- A LOT.

I thought Dale City got 5 inches with that last snow. A friend I was talkin to today set me straight. It was TEN inches.

Just WOW! That means Dale City has had 11.5 on the season already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Chris78 said:

That storm will be burned into my memory forever. Took me 6 hours to go from Frederick to Smithsburg On I -70. Some of the most intense rates I've ever experienced. 

Me too. Sideways fire hose snow

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The latest from LWX:

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Tranquil weather Mon through Mon evening as weak high pressure
builds in. Precip with next frontal passage moving through the
Great Lks will start moving in after 06Z Tue in the Allegheny
Highlands and spread across the rest of the area through the day
Tue and finally exit the area around midnight Tue night. Snow is
expected across the mtns with a rain/snow mix along the I-81
corridor and along the Mason Dixon line and rain east of Rt 15
and south of I-70 through about 21Z. Colder air will start
filtering in more quickly late Tue and Tue evening with rain
changing to snow from west to east as cold front progresses
through the area. Precip will change to snow everywhere before
ending around 03Z Wed. Due to warm bdry layer temps, only about
an inch or two of wet snow is expected mostly falling during the
early evening hrs.
Highest accumulations are expected along the
Rt 15 corridor from Loudoun County north and north of I-70. The
WPC 95th and EPS percentiles are about 4 inches with this storm,
so only winter weather advisories are anticipated with this
system and only for some areas.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The overnight EPS has pretty much locked into a solution at this point as evidenced by the tight clustering of lows around the panhandle of WV. This mirrors closely the op run.

 

00z66hr.thumb.gif.df34c0fcfa07abd82ec007c5c45e6f90.gif

 

6 hours later we do see a little divergence but they still carry a common theme. They are for the most part running that energy through or north of the MD region. This is not so promising for our snow chances as that energy is pretty much riding the boundary between the colder and warmer air. This is a setup where we probably start as rain waiting impatiently for a flip over to snow. To be expected, the farther north you are the better your chances as the low may slide under you and/or you are in a better position to still have decent moisture available as the cold moves in.

 

00z72hr.thumb.gif.ea6ff7da1590e1ae02c034adee396347.gif

 

Now compare the above to what we were seeing just on yesterdays 00Z. Notice we had quite a bit of spread for the same time period with many of the lows showing up to our south and deep south. A much more promising look as these southern lows suggested that the cold would be available as the moisture ran in. Hence the better snowfall maps and higher ratio snow some of the models were spitting out.

 

yesterday96hr.thumb.gif.8c2a77526024dbb0aaadef683408e772.gif

 

Now you may ask yourself why we are seeing such a difference in just 24 hours. I believe it has to do with how the model was handling the SE coastal low earlier in the period. Below we have a snapshot from yesterdays 00Z run. This run featured the closest interaction between that coastal and the Midwest low and its associated cold front of any of the EPS runs. What we were probably seeing was that the coastal was leaving some energy and/or weakness behind in the southeast and off the coast for the system in the Midwest to key on. So we were seeing lows forming in the deep south and a little later in time off the Mid-Atlantic coast. 

 

yesterdaycoastal.thumb.gif.66904eb48e34e02132a54d8eb9bb3d33.gif

 

Now compare the above to the latest run. Much greater separation between the two as the coastal is tracking farther OTS and departing quicker. This solution is not leaving anything for our Midwest system to key on.

 

00zcoastal.thumb.gif.c3b4d934d0d1da62105fc55e9d5750ce.gif

 

At this point in time I will probably be focusing on the op run and not so much with the ensembles because we are sitting around 3 days for this system and the op and ensembles are in good agreement. Probably only glance at the EPS to see if we see a camp of ensemble runs begin to diverge from consensus because after all the setup is somewhat volatile. Will probably also glance at the snowfall maps to get an idea if there may be some discrepancy on the temp profiles with the op. But besides that the op is probably what we need to focus on.

Overall I haven't liked what I have seen on the recent model runs for our snow chances. Think the warmer solutions we are now seeing are in fact probably closer to the reality then the colder previous runs. So those higher snowfall outputs will not probably be attained and the lower end projections are probably more in line. But we still have 3 days with a setup that is conducive for surprises so you just never know.

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.