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WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

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Surface temps at onset make me skeptical but this looks too mf'ing good not to post. Not everybody is cheering but most of us are. Rockville columbia psu deathband on this run. 

jN4tq67.png

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13 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Girlfriend is in Madison for the winter.  Honestly considered going over there for the cold snap, don't know when I'll ever experience something like that.

Yep, I hear you. A -55 to -65 WC is something I'd like to experience. Coldest I've ever enjoyed was -44. That was up at Jay VT with the air temp -14.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Surface temps at onset make me skeptical but this looks too mf'ing good not to post. Not everybody is cheering but most of us are. Rockville columbia psu deathband on this run. 

jN4tq67.png

Yep, not a lot for here, but I am over climo, y'all can have this one if it happens that way. :)

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we somehow manage a solid event Tuesday then temps could be interesting post front. Fresh snowpack and air mass can yield interesting temperature departures.

Would be great to take advantage of snow cover and see how low we go down. 

Been waiting for that combo for years ! Last Jan no snow cover , last couple years, nada, this past MLK Day, super cold, but no snowcover.

This would be great for the spirits if the Euro was right.    

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Just now, wxdude64 said:

Yep, not a lot for here, but I am over climo, y'all can have this one if it happens that way. :)

I need about 6-7" to hit climo so won't hit it with this one. Kuchera is overdone because temps are upper 30s at onset. There's going to be some wasted qpf. Very interesting though as now all globals and even the nam are hinting at some heavy snow for a time and surface should be good by then. A blend of all guidance right now is very encouraging for the 95 and close burb corridor. DCA may have a legit shot at topping climo. Not bad for a "disaster" winter. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Surface temps at onset make me skeptical but this looks too mf'ing good not to post. Not everybody is cheering but most of us are. Rockville columbia psu deathband on this run. 

jN4tq67.png

12z was great all around. I wish I could lock that up.  The frontal wave trended better across guidance.  One thing that worries me some is that the wave has trended east consistently the last 48 hours. Yea i know this one euro run was left of 6z but overall the trend is east. 72 hours ago this was going mostly west of us. If that trend continues we could be left watching philly and nyc celebrate. It’s already becoming a bummer for the western 1/3 of this region. I’d like to see that east trend stop before I feel confident enough to get my hopes up. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I need about 6-7" to hit climo so won't hit it with this one. Kuchera is overdone because temps are upper 30s at onset. There's going to be some wasted qpf. Very interesting though as now all globals and even the nam are hinting at some heavy snow for a time and surface should be good by then. A blend of all guidance right now is very encouraging for the 95 and close burb corridor. DCA may have a legit shot at topping climo. Not bad for a "disaster" winter. 

So true...our winters are rarely if ever wall to wall cold and snowy.  We have been and always will be a take what you can get region in winter

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I need about 6-7" to hit climo so won't hit it with this one. Kuchera is overdone because temps are upper 30s at onset. There's going to be some wasted qpf. Very interesting though as now all globals and even the nam are hinting at some heavy snow for a time and surface should be good by then. A blend of all guidance right now is very encouraging for the 95 and close burb corridor. DCA may have a legit shot at topping climo. Not bad for a "disaster" winter. 

I think most of the people calling it a disaster are north of Baltimore where it has been. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z was great all around. I wish I could lock that up.  The frontal wave trended better across guidance.  One thing that worries me some is that the wave has trended east consistently the last 48 hours. Yea i know this one euro run was left of 6z but overall the trend is east. 72 hours ago this was going mostly west of us. If that trend continues we could be left watching philly and nyc celebrate. It’s already becoming a bummer for the western 1/3 of this region. I’d like to see that east trend stop before I feel confident enough to get my hopes up. 

If you ignore the 6z euro and just toggle the 0z and 12z, there is zero east trend. Synotpic features are dead nuts the same but more qpf with the wave. It expanded westward as well. 

Eta: same for north of us. Dead nuts on synoptic but better qpf further west. I had a hunch the off hour euro would cause more confusion than help in general. 

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EURO fringes me horribly. But I am about due for a screwjob. I have been lucky to be hit by both storms so far this year. And I came into this thinking an inch was a win. And that is what the Euro shows.

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[mention=514]Ji[/mention] it's roaring back dude. You know what comes next...
I'm looking at the icon 120...what happened? It came back so it can pull it away on tomorrow's 18z run lol?

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
[mention=514]Ji[/mention] it's roaring back dude. You know what comes next...

I'm looking at the icon 120...what happened? It came back so it can pull it away on tomorrow's 18z run lol?

I'm talking about tuesday. Yesterday you said it didn't make it to sunday before failing. I said we have time for it to come roaring back and here we are. 

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

What I like about the euro too is that between 00z and 06z Wednesday we receive 0.1+ of QPF, whereas the GFS basically shuts it off right at 0z. 

That caught my attention as well. Hope that continues on future runs. Hard not to get greedy when you see those really nice totals just to our northeast. Be great to see the .4 line move west towards Hagerstown and bump everyone else up into the .6-.7 range going forward.

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you ignore the 6z euro and just toggle the 0z and 12z, there is zero east trend. Synotpic features are dead nuts the same but more qpf with the wave. It expanded westward as well. 

Eta: same for north of us. Dead nuts on synoptic but better qpf further west. I had a hunch the off hour euro would cause more confusion than help in general. 

You’re right the trend east was mostly in other guidance. The euro has been a rock if you ignore 6z.  Funny how adding more runs will likely make the euro seem more jumpy. Just because there are more opportunities for it to have crap the bed runs. Perception bias will make it seem worse though. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm talking about tuesday. Yesterday you said it didn't make it to sunday before failing. I said we have time for it to come roaring back and here we are. 

Simply amazing.....you did tell Ji that. 

Oh ,by the way Bob, can you PM me the next winning Delaware power ball number please. Thanks !  :-)  

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7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

EURO fringes me horribly. But I am about due for a screwjob. I have been lucky to be hit by both storms so far this year. And I came into this thinking an inch was a win. And that is what the Euro shows.

Hard to say if it was a trend or wobble but the euro made nice improvement in the direction of your yard compared to 0z so the run improved for you. Short range trends this year have been to increase qpf. Nearly every storm too but most storms have been rain so increasing qpf isn't always exciting. The 2 snow events earlier this month had great short term trends though. Maybe this one can do the same. This one is a razor edge though and we've been one slight synoptic shift away from heartbreak since we first started discussing it. That won't change until after it's over. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re right the trend east was mostly in other guidance. The euro has been a rock if you ignore 6z.  Funny how adding more runs will likely make the euro seem more jumpy. Just because there are more opportunities for it to have crap the bed runs. Perception bias will make it seem worse though. 

We're banking on slp pressure running a boundary with a precip shield less than 100 miles wide. The baltimore guy came in yesterday to tell us it's only a front amd we're dumb for expecting more than 2". The thing is, if he actually paid attention to the synoptics it's obvious that this isn't "just a front". Feb 2015 was a front. This is far different. It could evaporate in an instant with a small shift but we're only 60 hours out now and all the globals look mostly the same. I'd say that 12z is the first time we've had consensus. If 0z doesn't waver then most if not all of us are probably getting some accum snow out of the deal. 

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I'm talking about tuesday. Yesterday you said it didn't make it to sunday before failing. I said we have time for it to come roaring back and here we are. 
Yes you did say that...but you added it will come roaring back just to take it away from us again lol
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Just now, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
I'm talking about tuesday. Yesterday you said it didn't make it to sunday before failing. I said we have time for it to come roaring back and here we are. 

Yes you did say that...but you added it will come roaring back just to take it away from us again lol

Yep. This is not an easy snow event. We need to survive 0z before starting to set bars. Your bar will never be reached though so you may want to go ahead and cancel it now.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep. This is not an easy snow event. We need to survive 0z before starting to set bars. Your bar will never be reached though so you may want to go ahead and cancel it now.

Or go ahead and do your pull-ups now since he won't have a bar to do them later...

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The noon GFS is still looking pretty good for late Tuesday.  It's been consistently showing a swatch of 3-4" of snow for my part of MD.  That's not bad considering.   And the last few runs have trended Tuesday to be colder, even at the onset of the precipitation.  So, it's very possible the rain only lasts a few hours before quickly changing to snow.  I was hoping the cold air would sustain itself longer than a few days but by Sunday, we'll be back above normal. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're banking on slp pressure running a boundary with a precip shield less than 100 miles wide. The baltimore guy came in yesterday to tell us it's only a front amd we're dumb for expecting more than 2". The thing is, if he actually paid attention to the synoptics it's obvious that this isn't "just a front". Feb 2015 was a front. This is far different. It could evaporate in an instant with a small shift but we're only 60 hours out now and all the globals look mostly the same. I'd say that 12z is the first time we've had consensus. If 0z doesn't waver then most if not all of us are probably getting some accum snow out of the deal. 

Notice I didn’t even bother with that.  Some things are too ignorant to waste time on. 

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Just now, Danajames said:

The noon GFS is still looking pretty good for late Tuesday.  It's been consistently showing a swatch of 3-4" of snow for my part of MD.  That's not bad considering.   And the last few runs have trended Tuesday to be colder, even at the onset of the precipitation.  So, it's very possible the rain only lasts a few hours before quickly changing to snow.  I was hoping the cold air would sustain itself longer than a few days but by Sunday, we'll be back above normal. 

We can probably thank the fish storm for trending west. It's helping with the wedge and insitu cad. If you go back to the runs where that storm was much further east, the surface and mids were warmer because of return flow in front of slp to our NW was unabated. The trend with the ocean storm seems innocuous because it doesn't do anything over land but it's actually helping our area for the Tues event. 

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