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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Serious question... Do the nams ever add value before precip is on the doorstep? I've grown to hate 24-48 hour nam runs. 

ive seen NAMS really dry with frontal passages type of events...where we get really NAMMED is when there is a a real storm lol

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I think 1-3" for any area is about right.  Maybe southern MD/Eastern shore will have a hard time finally transitioning to snow and still getting an inch or two.  One thing is for sure- the GFS's last few runs have been getting colder and colder which may negate much if any rain for locations north of Baltimore.   We'll see how it plays out.   

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looks like UK drops about 0.3" for DC/Balt.  0.1" line is out by Winchester.  0.4" east of the bay.

pretty obvious shift east with qpf on UKMET also... GFS held but just about everything else shifted the axis of the best qpf east again from 0z.  That has been a pretty consistent trend the last few days.  

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