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WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i didnt think NAM range started till tomorow at 9am!

Serious question... Do the nams ever add value before precip is on the doorstep? I've grown to hate 24-48 hour nam runs. 

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GFS is a solid outcome, PSU can live with that I would assume. Halted the east trend. 

Edit to say I want to see the FV3 as it has been good the last few runs for us. 6z was east so I'd like to see it come back west. 

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Fv3 is really good. Gets areas north in the morning and then gets us all in the afternoon. Someone with a little elevation along the md/pa border will get 1-2” in the morning imo...

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Serious question... Do the nams ever add value before precip is on the doorstep? I've grown to hate 24-48 hour nam runs. 

ive seen NAMS really dry with frontal passages type of events...where we get really NAMMED is when there is a a real storm lol

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11 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Fv3 is really good. Gets areas north in the morning and then gets us all in the afternoon. Someone with a little elevation along the md/pa border will get 1-2” in the morning imo...

Do you have total QPF?  

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Part 2 Wednesday looks fun  on 3k ...has a mini squall line with 45 mph gusts around 18z with temps upper teens low 20s 

Let's go 2 for 2

Check out the soundings on that squall line in N MD on the 3k

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I almost always set a realistic bar by now. This event is killing me. I've wanted to just go 2" for a couple days and let it ride but I've yet to have any confidence that I actually get 2" so I'll just go ahead and say 1" or bust and hope for a boom. 

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I don’t think ground temps will be much of an issue. It’s cold today and forecast to be well below freezing tonight. So if we can get some decent qpf with the FROPA it could be a fun little event

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I think 1-3" for any area is about right.  Maybe southern MD/Eastern shore will have a hard time finally transitioning to snow and still getting an inch or two.  One thing is for sure- the GFS's last few runs have been getting colder and colder which may negate much if any rain for locations north of Baltimore.   We'll see how it plays out.   

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My bar is 2 inches. I’m south of DC. I think DC North could be in line for 2-4 which would be a solid “storm”. Especially considering we will be entering the ice box afterward

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