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WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

NAM looks significantly better with the precip along the front IMO.  

The highly technical NAM pattern says 0z will suck, 6z will be good, 12z will be a disaster, and 18z will be a flush hit. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

MDZ011-504-506-508-VAZ052-053-501-502-505-506-290400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.190129T1700Z-190130T0300Z/
Southern Baltimore-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Any rain will change to snow during the afternoon hours.
  Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland and northern
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From noon to 10 PM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute.
  Temperatures will fall well below freezing during the evening,
  causing any moisture or slush to freeze on untreated surfaces.
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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Got a feeling the mason-dixon counties get an advisory this afternoon.  Maybe northern howard and montgomery get one, but that's stretching it.

Wrong once again lol

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Just now, yoda said:

Wrong once again lol

Notice how I didn't use concrete language.  That was my feeling based off the marginal setup and how dry things were on the 12z run.  

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Temps are so marginal. What a tough call. Lots of boom-bust potential with this one, but guessing most of us end up in the 1-2 range when all is said and done.

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10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

NAM and 3K are nice runs for Montgomery county and north, especially up around @psuhoffman land. 

18Z HRRR is advertising WSW snows in Carroll County but temps are the question. 

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13 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4".  None of these sites are under the WWA.

CTP did not give Franklin County PA a WWA either re: HGR. 

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3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4".  None of these sites are under the WWA.

Which is telling.  

This is not a way we score out here, especially me.  My guess is up to an inch north of OKV, and mood flakes - at best - for me.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Both nams shifted the edge of better qpf west. They must have read PSU's mini melt and showed some sympathy. 

You debbed your way to 11” 2 weeks ago. I’ll be 100% happy with 4. 

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6 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Glad I'm not the only one confused on that one.

Zone forecasts have 1-3" for HGR and MRB, and around an inch for OKV.  So with less than 2" being a possibility, that would preclude the WWA.  Probably should stick with the ZFP's and disregard the point-and-click. 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

Love the line of snow squalls on the arctic front midday Wednesday on the 18z NAM nest.    Forecast soundings show impressive low and mid-level lapse rates!

Also note the extreme omega in the DGZ per the soundings as well.  I have that right, yes?

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

for all the complaining you have done about missing out on snow, you'd think you'd be happy with what you end up getting. but what do i know.

this place has turned into a super duper negative place to be right now. and frankly, its not fun. good luck with your 1-2", hopefully you get more. 

Happy Hour it is

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10 minutes ago, high risk said:

Love the line of snow squalls on the arctic front midday Wednesday on the 18z NAM nest.    Forecast soundings show impressive low and mid-level lapse rates!

How well does the nest do on these types of forecasts with extreme lapse rates ? Thanks 

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30 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Which is telling.  

This is not a way we score out here, especially me.  My guess is up to an inch north of OKV, and mood flakes - at best - for me.

Nope. Euro shuts me out too. And that is what I expect. It is what it is. Just feel stupid for tracking this mess for a week.

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17 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Zone forecasts have 1-3" for HGR and MRB, and around an inch for OKV.  So with less than 2" being a possibility, that would preclude the WWA.  Probably should stick with the ZFP's and disregard the point-and-click. 

I would think with the timing being mid-afternoon and rush hour, that would impact the advisory.

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

How well does the nest do on these types of forecasts with extreme lapse rates ? Thanks 

          this is the type of event in which resolution and explicit convection (as opposed to a convective scheme) will help a lot, so the NAM nest forecast may be legit.

 

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

Also note the extreme omega in the DGZ per the soundings as well.  I have that right, yes?

           yes, but it's so narrow and fast-moving that I'm not thinking in terms of accumulations.   It's more of a deal with potential quick reductions in visibility and then freezing of snow on the ground if enough falls to cover surfaces.

 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

          this is the type of event in which resolution and explicit convection (as opposed to a convective scheme) will help a lot, so the NAM nest forecast may be legit.

 

           yes, but it's so narrow and fast-moving that I'm not thinking in terms of accumulations.   It's more of a deal with potential quick reductions in visibility and then freezing of snow on the ground if enough falls to cover surfaces.

 

If the Nest is correct would that possibly warrant using / issuing  the new NWS tool regarding squall warnings ?

Thamks !   

 

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is nobody going to woof about the 18z GFS? NE of Balt in particular is in luck, though there's an embedded line of FRZ amidst the snow for DCA.

image.png.4da3141c3cb80f660a845a497c9ef524.png

 

 

image.png.9f5e9aba5a3fad9333e548bf9f3f9f50.png

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Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4".  None of these sites are under the WWA.


Little surprised at the lack of WWA for your area and north, but I guarantee that might change tonight with one more round of data and solidifying the projected totals. CTP and LWX probably collaborated together and with WPC to delay the issuance of anything until the 0z suite. That’s my guess.


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