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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Sounds like an over -performer for the DC crew.  Congrats, guys!  

You got a little unlucky this afternoon with the bands setting up to your NW. But you still cashed in with the ULL right?

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Still coming down pretty heavy in McLean with no signs of stopping on the radar for at least a couple hours. Tried to go out in the car, but roads were an absolute mess and turned around. 

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4 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Wow!  What area of Germantown are you?  I am next to Milestone near 355 and 27, and have closer to 6 inches.

Just went around the corner to pick up a pizza and the roads are BAD again.  Moderate snow and 29.

East of Daly Elementary.

 

I bet the roads are terrible right now. I have 6" on hard surfaces but there is a ton of compaction on them. 9" on anything that is insulated.

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28/27. 6" have fallen now SW of Warrenton as compaction has been a factor- but fatties are ripping now. Figure I can get another inch or so out of the back end. 

 

0 (6).jpg

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The HRRR kept saying this band would move south,but it's still drifting north.

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Finally getting the Loudon-Fairfax-DC-MoCo superband!  Big flakes and best rates of the storm.  Picked up around 520pm while I was shoveling/snowblowing.  Driveway covered again.

 

Measured 0.2" on the snowboard at 5pm for a storm total of 6.1".  I'm sure there's more than another 0.2" already in the last 20 minutes.  

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On 1/12/2019 at 3:36 PM, Bob Chill said:

Models have all shown that accumulating snow wont happen until sometime after 5pm. Good stuff not till much later. Give it some time before worrying about mountains and such

You were right.  The snow did make it over 'dem mountains.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Finally getting the Loudon-Fairfax-DC-MoCo superband!  Big flakes and best rates of the storm.  Picked up around 520pm while I was shoveling/snowblowing.  Driveway covered again.

 

Measured 0.2" on the snowboard at 5pm for a storm total of 6.1".  I'm sure there's more than another 0.2" already in the last 20 minutes.  

That’s what dreams are made of —Van Halen

 

 

About time!

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Finally getting the Loudon-Fairfax-DC-MoCo superband!  Big flakes and best rates of the storm.  Picked up around 520pm while I was shoveling/snowblowing.  Driveway covered again.

 

Measured 0.2" on the snowboard at 5pm for a storm total of 6.1".  I'm sure there's more than another 0.2" already in the last 20 minutes.  

Thanks for getting schools closed. ;)

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You got a little unlucky this afternoon with the bands setting up to your NW. But you still cashed in with the ULL right?

Yeah, 1.5 or a bit more.  Might be able to get to 7.  The bands rarely set up over me.  Still, great event.  100x better than any event since Jan 2016.

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another 60 to 90 minutes of snow with this rate will push Clarksburg close to ONE FOOT!!! we are getting incredible rates.  

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10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Hey Sue Palka tweeted yesterday afternoon 4-6”.  Maybe she meant from daybreak Sunday to tonight? 

This post reminds me of 2010, when there was always debate on here about her forecasts.

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn Matt, i was fully prepared to call it a wrap when it waa shut off. 6.5" was already great. Adding 2.5" and counting with this last batch is off the chain. 

Same here. Sidewalks were already shoveled and cars brushed off. Thought it was over.

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lol nothing here yet.. radar to the SW keeps hitting a wall. Happy with the 5 inches i got. Hopefully at least someone hits the 10 inch or even the foot mark over there in D.C.

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This storm broke a lot of mid atlantic rules of thumb

  • Onset earlier than forecast
  • Virga was minimal
  • Models kept get better through and after onset
  • Snowfall was unusually evenly distributed
  • There was no parrs deathband (i feel bad for psu)
  • Nova and DCA are jackpotting 
  • Warm air advection overperformed
  • Upper level low qpf is higher than forecast
  • Shutoff is later than forecast
  • Start to finish will span 30 hours

Let all that sink in for a minute...

 

 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

This storm broke a lot of mid atlantic rules of thumb

  • Onset earlier than forecast
  • Virga was minimal
  • Models kept get better through and after onset
  • Snowfall was unusually evenly distributed
  • There was no parrs deathband (i feel bad for psu)
  • Nova and DCA are jackpotting 
  • Warm air advection overperformed
  • Upper level low qpf is higher than forecast
  • Shutoff is later than forecast
  • Start to finish will span 30 hours

Let all that sink in for a minute...

 

 

It took every weenie rulebook what if and said sure

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

More bands pushing N into NOVA/DC...this is crazy.  

Have not been looking at the radar but noticed the snow picked up again! Nice!

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The last two hours in McLean have been such a blast. The intensity has been a welcome surprise. What an awesome Jebwalk! Now back to football!!

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