psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 @showmethesnow yesterday there was a trend towards a much more amplified system in the Midwest that was able to overcome the overall suppressive flow in the east. Especially the 18z run had that can't miss look coming out of the Mississippi valley. Then the gfs and gem went the other way 0z and 6z. Confluence has relaxed some but the trough is deamplifying and washing out to an extent as it comes east so if the system is weak and disorganized as it ejects it won't hold together well. No idea if the overnight trend is real or just a hiccup. But disappointing given the trend yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Mount Holly's thoughts this morning on the storm potential. Seems about right given the set-up and current model trends. Saturday night into Sunday, aformentioned low looks to move northeast passing off the coast south of the forecast area. Forecast models have started to come in to better agreement but since this is still several days away confidence regarding this system is still only in the low to moderate range. Latest indications are that southern stream shortwave will tend to fracture apart as it gets pulled into confluent upper level flow over the northeast. The result would be a somewhat weaker low passing farther south than what the GFS and GEM were showing 24 hours ago. There will also be a surface high over Ontario/Quebec feeding cold, dry air into the system and this could also result in a sharp northern cut off in precip. The upshot is that there is still a potential for some accumulating snow to occur with the highest chances for precip being areas near and especially south of the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 6z Euro should be coming out around now, right? Around 2 hours after GFS... Looks about the same to me. Maybe a little less amped but looks to be setting up for a similar hit as 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 No one mentioned the FV3 this morning. Is it still the outliner being super amped? I see TT is still catching up last night run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: No one mentioned the FV3 this morning. Is it still the outliner being super amped? I see TT is still catching up last night run. Looks relatively similar to 0z. Still the warmest and furthest North of all other guidance. Total precip is still only around .5. I would figure it would be more with the more northerly solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Looks about the same to me. Maybe a little less amped but looks to be setting up for a similar hit as 0z. I am hearing issues with confluence again, better organization, but more confluence pressing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, frd said: I am hearing issues with confluence again, better organization, but more confluence pressing down. Sounds like similar issues to our December whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Hope everyone enjoyed yesterday evening’s happy times...Here is when we start unraveling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: No one mentioned the FV3 this morning. Is it still the outliner being super amped? I see TT is still catching up last night run. Looks better for DC compared to 0z. Still mixes but less. It's a little colder. Has most areas in the .50+ for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Sounds like similar issues to our December whiff? Have you noticed this issue has been repeating itself recently. Someone pointed out, as I had looked not looked at the UkMet yesterday, we never truly had the agreement between the UkMet and the Euro. To feel more confident you need ,or prefer them to be on the same page. Granted keeping your expectations in check makes sense, as we are just entering the better pattern. psu had posted the CIPS analogs which were very, very encouraging for this event, but at this time the models are not moving in that direction, at least not currently. Little changes can yield some rather significant changes, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Hope everyone enjoyed yesterday evening’s happy times...Here is when we start unraveling in an event to not have this thread completely fall off the rails, if you (general you) are going to be posting analysis regarding how you think model runs, and/or the outcome of the storm will be, please make sure you have something to back it up. otherwise, posts like this will be deleted. TIA 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Looks about the same to me. Maybe a little less amped but looks to be setting up for a similar hit as 0z. Yeah, slightly less amped than 0z and confluence is a touch stronger. Stops at 90 so can't so the panels that would matter. EPS will be out soon which go to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, Scraff said: Sounds like similar issues to our December whiff? It certainly bears some resemblance. The NS energy and associated confluence has always been a player for this event. One other feature that has been shifting over the last few runs of the GFS is the western ridge position/amplification. Less amplitude esp on the 6z run and the southern wave doesn't get as much dig in the lower MS Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, frd said: I am hearing issues with confluence again, better organization, but more confluence pressing down. Ever so slightly more confluence...but negligible imo. just run to run noise I think. 0z was just a little more consolidated on the h5 vort panel.... ninja'd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It certainly bears some resemblance. The NS energy and associated confluence has always been a player for this event. One other feature that has been shifting over the last few runs of the GFS is the western ridge position/amplification. Less amplitude esp on the 6z run and the southern wave doesn't get as much dig in the lower MS Valley. The good thing with this storm is the northern edge, as modeled, is significantly further north and puts us in the game for at least a light event. With the December storm at this range we were not really modeled to get anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 hours ago, DCTeacherman said: Funny how the Euro and the GFS have traded places in 24 hours. Euro gives us breathing room with advisory snows well to our north, GFS nasomuch. I know which one I would put my chips all in on. Just saying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: I know which one I would put my chips all in on. Just saying. Thanks for the tip....DT! 12z going to be fun in here. Looking forward to it. Until then, hope everyone has a great morning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It certainly bears some resemblance. The NS energy and associated confluence has always been a player for this event. One other feature that has been shifting over the last few runs of the GFS is the western ridge position/amplification. Less amplitude esp on the 6z run and the southern wave doesn't get much dig in the lower MS Valley. Good point, reading yesterday as well, not just the amplification of the Western ridge but the general tilting configuration of the ridge, it had that configuration ( forget what model ) during one of the better model runs yesterday. First time I heard a reference like this, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: The good thing with this storm is the northern edge, as modeled, is significantly further north and puts us in the game for at least a light event. With the December storm at this range we were not really modeled to get anything. I was thinking the same thing. And the December storm made a significant move north very late, so as long as were close, there's always some hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 After a full day of model runs and pretty much every run on every model showing some accumulating snow, I’m not giving up at 6z 3.5 days out. The models are clearly struggling with the amplitude of the SW. If and until we see a consistently modeled SS SW it’s hard to be too bullish or bearish at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I think the biggest issue is the confluence pressing down from the North. All 6z model runs had it further south than there 0z runs. In my opinion That's the least accurate part of the equation this far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: After a full day of model runs and pretty much every run on every model showing some accumulating snow, I’m not giving up at 6z 3.5 days out. The models are clearly struggling with the amplitude of the SW. If and until we see a consistently modeled SS SW it’s hard to be too bullish or bearish at this time. Yes no reason to give up. At least some light snow is in the cards it seems. Just a hunch that when we actually need confluence at some point it won’t be there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 So who ends up being in the bullseye of this storm??? central virginia once again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I know there's some doom and gloom this morning but the precip that slides just south of us is very impressive. As long as we Do Not lose ground to the south over the next few days I think we'll be ok. If we get out normal north bump over the final 36 hours it would be a real nice event. The 12/9 Event had the northern extent in southern va at one point and moved significantly north over the last 36 hours. @psuhoffman always talks about not losing to much ground to the south prior to the eventual north trend and I think this may be the case here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: So who ends up being in the bullseye of this storm??? central virginia once again? Southern Shenandoah Valley. Makes sense though. Elevation and precip max right through that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Need a juicy wave for this. We know what the Apps can do to storms here. I don’t like the idea of a long duration light event. That’s not what we do well, in general, but maybe this is just one of those setups that’ll do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I think the biggest issue is the confluence pressing down from the North. All 6z model runs had it further south than there 0z runs. In my opinion That's the least accurate part of the equation this far out in time. Pretty big difference in the how amped the system is as well. The Euro and GFS are almost identical in the HP placement and strength. The Euro has a more amped shortwave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Who's got the 6z EPS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty big difference in the how amped the system is as well. The Euro and GFS are almost identical in the HP placement and strength. The Euro has a more amped shortwave. The weaker SS definitely doesn't help. I was looking more at the lobe that drops down into New England at the worst possible time. The better runs had at further north or further west . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The OP GFS is more south compared to the mean on the GEFS. The FV3 would be on the northern side of the esembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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