WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Interesting that GFS is showing the same as the ICON with a 2-phased storm for those of is from DC-north. WAA snows provide 1-2", then a brief pause while the coastal forms and then we get into the CCB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Depends, I am not looking at precip at all...but just looking at the h5 and mslp the low is a little north of 6z, and its 1014 vs 1016, and the system did hold slightly less energy back. But its only better if you compare it to 6z which was awful, going back to the runs that were really good its worse. So depends what you are comparing it too...and what you are looking at. I was only looking at the H5 map... The confluence was stronger and the heights in front were slightly lower. What we need is the NS to get behind the SS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Very close to a much bigger hit though 111. Yep, that is my take looking at the evolution. It might not improve our ground truth this run but it took a step towards a bigger possible solution. Sometimes I like to not look at the precip because qpf is one of the least accurate model outputs and can be very fluky especially with the GFS and can bias my opinion of the run. Just looking at the h5 and mslp often gives me a better view of what is going on without the pretty colors and clown snow output biasing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 central virginia will win this one.....atmospheric memory is real...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 so close so so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Interesting that GFS is showing the same as the ICON with a 2-phased storm for those of is from DC-north. WAA snows provide 1-2", then a brief pause while the coastal forms and then we get into the CCB. I'd be thrilled with a long duration 2-4" with frozen ground. Not kidding or lying. Sounds like a great event to kick off a ku pattern 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yep, that is my take looking at the evolution. It might not improve our ground truth this run but it took a step towards a bigger possible solution. Sometimes I like to not look at the precip because qpf is one of the least accurate model outputs and can be very fluky especially with the GFS and can bias my opinion of the run. Just looking at the h5 and mslp often gives me a better view of what is going on without the pretty colors and clown snow output biasing it. All I do is toggle the previous run at H5 (Learned over the years from here!). Hopefully not just noise at this stage and the slight improvements continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: central virginia will win this one.....atmospheric memory is real...... Do you think you could repeat this again and again just in case some people missed it the first 3 times. 3 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Total precip map is a nice jump north on par with the ICON. 0.5 makes it to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 We take and abscond 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'd be thrilled with a long duration 2-4" with frozen ground. Not kidding or lying. Sounds like a great event to kick off a ku pattern I completely agree. I'd love a warning event of course, but a cold powder event that's spread out over 24+ hours will be fun. Bring it on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: central virginia will win this one.....atmospheric memory is real...... We heard you yesterday. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 if i read about atmospheric memory one more time. i may kick puppies. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I don't like that Low pressure near the Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 CMC pretty much is similar to the GFS but improved snowfall for everyone vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Interesting that GFS is showing the same as the ICON with a 2-phased storm for those of is from DC-north. WAA snows provide 1-2", then a brief pause while the coastal forms and then we get into the CCB. my only fear for those of us north of DC...this could be evolving into an all or nothing setup. The coastal idea ups the ante BUT it could also rob the WAA and dynamics from the initial wave (or that could ride north of us) and then the coastal could be mostly a miss for places NW of 95. That would be the doomsday scenario here. Of course at this range its equally likely the coastal ends up slightly more amplified and is a hit for all. I guess it depends on if your a glass half empty/full kinda person. But this setup is higher risk reward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Total precip map is a nice jump north on par with the ICON. 0.5 makes it to DC. I think it was a great run. Same with last nights euro. The only thing that can kill us is a dry air pacman. Was supposed to happen just 24 hours out in Jan 2010. Models are better now but we're still d4+. We're looking pretty good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Interesting that GFS is showing the same as the ICON with a 2-phased storm for those of is from DC-north. WAA snows provide 1-2", then a brief pause while the coastal forms and then we get into the CCB. I thought last nights euro hinted at this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd be thrilled with a long duration 2-4" with frozen ground. Not kidding or lying. Sounds like a great event to kick off a ku pattern an there is still enough time for a slightly better evolution. While the improvements were small, they were improvements. Couple ticks away from a really nice kickoff to real winter. Seeing the southern energy not get shred was a + to me. Hp slightly less hostile in placement and down to 1034, while noise, still helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: We take and abscond "WE"? lol no thanks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I think it was a great run. Same with last nights euro. The only thing that can kill us is a dry air pacman. Was supposed to happen just 24 hours out in Jan 2010. Models are better now but we're still d4+. We're looking pretty good. Violently agree. 2-4 would be great overall. I like the 12z runs so far. Very nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Kidding aside, even up here, that is sitting there "close enough" like I say for the final adjustment north to save even me up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Not sure if it has been said yet but 12z icon is a pretty decent improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: my only fear for those of us north of DC...this could be evolving into an all or nothing setup. The coastal idea ups the ante BUT it could also rob the WAA and dynamics from the initial wave (or that could ride north of us) and then the coastal could be mostly a miss for places NW of 95. That would be the doomsday scenario here. Of course at this range its equally likely the coastal ends up slightly more amplified and is a hit for all. I guess it depends on if your a glass half empty/full kinda person. But this setup is higher risk reward. yup, was just thinking about this. I'd rather go back to a juiced up WAA overrunning with a primary low in KY that transfers to the coast. GGEM is more like this with about the same result given a weaker CCB from the coastal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, mappy said: if i read about atmospheric memory one more time. i may kick puppies. Cats....kick cats. We already sacrificed enough puppies, bunnies, and unicorn horns this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 From 6 hours to onset we need a 30.25 or lower at DCA. The higher we go the further south it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: "WE"? lol no thanks That map is a 'double-doink' for a few of us psu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, mappy said: if i read about atmospheric memory one more time. i may kick puppies. You think its worse than "We take" or (mostly yoda): modelx looks tasty? (cringe) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: my only fear for those of us north of DC...this could be evolving into an all or nothing setup. The coastal idea ups the ante BUT it could also rob the WAA and dynamics from the initial wave (or that could ride north of us) and then the coastal could be mostly a miss for places NW of 95. That would be the doomsday scenario here. Of course at this range its equally likely the coastal ends up slightly more amplified and is a hit for all. I guess it depends on if your a glass half empty/full kinda person. But this setup is higher risk reward. So is this turning into a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Beachin said: Not sure if it has been said yet but 12z icon is a pretty decent improvement Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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