EastCoast NPZ Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: im sure you were all execpting the NAM to show this NAMING Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Not anymore. Thanks Dr. Deathblow. Yeah, the ultimate deathblow is the NAM at 84 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The pattern hasn't changed, it's sun brightness or something. Yeah when I put my shades on I can still feel the Pacific puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I actually don't mind this look to bad. Even though this is the NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 well we are never to trust the NAM between 60-84 no matter what is shows...maybe its rearing to crank up a coastal like the ICON on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, frd said: Have a question for you and this relates to a post about an hour ago by @bluewave in the NYC forum. He makes a good point, and has touched on this point a couple times the last week, stating the Pac jet is so fast it is causing issues, and we are lacking the typical STJ, that you tend to see with Ninos. I know we were talking about the TPV , phasing and confluence as factors here with the weekend storm, but is not the fast Pac also a limitation on the pattern producing ? ( effectig SWs in the flow , not allowing amplification and other issues ) And if so, I imagine we see that hopefully change when the new pattern fully establishes itself later in Jan. Even Earthlight https://twitter.com/jhomenuk states that we are only at the start of an improved pattern, as we move out of the crap we had to endure. I think the fast Pacific jet is wreaking havoc with the guidance and has been responsible for the tanking verification scores at times lately. The more you speed everything up the more chaos you create. And in general its not going to help with amplification. I do think the fast pac flow crashing the west coast could be compressing the longwave pattern over NAM and leading to the deamplification of the trough as it comes east. But we have had some pretty good snow events out of this type of setup before also. I don't think the pac jet along is fully to blame. If the vort comes out stronger and in one piece we will be ok. The pna ridge out west is somewhat muting the effects of the pac jet right now just enough to allow this threat to sneak in during the pattern transition. Long term I agree as the pacific jet relaxes and we establish more stable ridging out west and cut off the influence completely our chances will increase. Our biggest threat to a snowstorm in the long range seems to be more related to the blocking pattern on the Atlantic side and exactly how the block/PV sets up and situates themselves. Not saying that is a big problem right now...but a bigger risk in the pattern showing up in the long range than the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah when I put my shades on I can still feel the Pacific puke. i noticed the moon was a 35 watts lower than normal....usually happens when you go from Phase 5 to Phase 8 MJO too quickly 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Ji said: well we are never to trust the NAM between 60-84 no matter what is shows...maybe its rearing to crank up a coastal like the ICON on monday can you stop posting it then? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Yeah, the ultimate deathblow is the NAM at 84 hrs. Not the NAM...that’s trash. Just Ji’s description of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Ji said: well we are never to trust the NAM between 60-84 no matter what is shows...maybe its rearing to crank up a coastal like the ICON on monday Will be interesting to see if guidance heads that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, mappy said: can you stop posting it then? this is a weather forum....you want me to post images of the meals ive made in the past 4 days instead? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: Anybody else seeing that both the GFS and ICON seem to holding things back a bit. Their 6z runs now bring the SLP up to Hatteras between hrs 114 and 120. ICON has been hinting at this. Will be interesting to watch. This would support the idea of maybe a front end WAA Saturday night, a dry period and then getting hit by the coastal Sunday afternoon. Something to watch for today. For instance, here's the GFS at 0z and then 6z. See my earlier post....IcON was setting up for a later possibly more robust system Monday. Delayed but not denied?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Our biggest threat to a snowstorm in the long range seems to be more related to the blocking pattern on the Atlantic side and exactly how the block/PV sets up and situates themselves. Not saying that is a big problem right now...but a bigger risk in the pattern showing up in the long range than the pacific. Thanks psu, we do need the Pac jet to relax. And, what you said here at the end echoes @showmethesnow thoughts about the evolution of the PV near Hudson Bay, and how it proceeds will effect storm oppurtunities for us here, specifically how far South it drops later in the month and in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: im sure you were all execpting the NAM to show this NAMING That's .19 qpf into mid 20's temps. After the start to winter I would be thrilled with that as our welcome back. Oh it's the 81-84 hour nam as well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's .19 qpf into mid 20's temps. After the start to winter I would be thrilled with that as our welcome back. Oh it's the 81-84 hour nam as well Yep. That's a 1 to 3 inch event during the day on Saturday. With potentially more to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: well we are never to trust the NAM between 60-84 no matter what is shows...maybe its rearing to crank up a coastal like the ICON on monday If the guidance trends towards holding more back that actually does become a viable option...but more often then not when you get a split like that what ends up happening is the "in between" option which screws us. We had such a solution last January...lead wave brought a very light snow event (like 1")...but better north of us...then the energy that held back formed a trailing low down in NC and gave them 3-6" but we were stuck in between. Sometimes if enough is held back something can ride the coast in that kind of setup but its rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 40 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I like that the .25 line is well up, into pa. Gives us some breathing room for atleast a minor event. me too. NS as Bob was worried about early on seems to not want to play along. I can see us smokin cirrus up here if that HP is timed just "right". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Yep. That's a 1 to 3 inch event during the day on Saturday. With potentially more to come. Yup... 1-3/2-4 before potentially some more snow Sunday. We should all accept that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 It's been so moist though, it's hard to believe even in the option where the energy becomes split it doesn't trend wetter, with 500mb closed off way back in Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's been so moist though, it's hard to believe even in the option where the energy becomes split it doesn't trend wetter. This ACTUALLY makes some sense! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 hours ago, Ji said: Ensembles are pretty much useless. None shut us out but this is exactly what happened 3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: So as novices we sit here and look at the ensemble runs from yesterday and see gobs and gobs of snow and now those same ensembles show the above. Raisins in cookies that look like chocolate chips or a trainer that says one more rep then adds another and ensemble runs are why I have trust problems 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ncep is aware the gefs aren't dispersive enough. Hopefully they fix it soon. What PSU said. It's mostly a problem with underdispersion in the GEFS. I know a lot of people here know this, but for those who don't: that means that the GEFS members have more "groupthink" than in other ensembles, and they tend to cluster around the GFS. So if the GFS says we'll get a big hit, we can expect to see a lot of GEFS members agree. And if the GFS says we won't get a big hit, a lot of GEFS members will probably agree with that as well. Long-range op runs (like the GFS) tend to jump around a lot from run to run, and ideally an ensemble should be steadier. But because it follows the GFS so closely, the GEFS also jumps around quite a bit. So following the GEFS leading up to a potential storm can feel like an emotional roller coaster. One of the reasons I follow the Canadian ensemble is because it is more disperse. You can see this in the below maps from last night's 00z runs. The way to read these plots is that the red numbers correspond to the centers of low pressure in the different ensemble members. The shading of the plot indicates how much spread there is in the ensemble members. Darker blues mean the ensemble members agree with each other more, and lighter blues and greens mean there is less agreement. The image toggles between the GEFS (GFS ensemble) and GEPS (Canadian ensemble). You can the tight cluster of lows off the coast of NC in the GEFS, and the broader spread of low pressure locations in the GEPS. The dispersion makes the Canadian enesmbles less exciting, but I find that it also gives me a better sense of how likely it is for things to go wrong. A slight red flag from last night was that the Canadian ensemble stopped getting better. Typically, leading up to a big storm the Canadian ensemble will gradually improve as the members come to agreement that it's going to snow. But in both the 12z and 00z runs yesterday, only about 1/2 the members showed more than 1" of snow for me. On the other hand, although the 06z GEFS run was not a good sign, I wouldn't worry about it too much unless it gets broader support from the other ensembles and ops. As PSU mentioned, NCEP is aware of the problem with the GEFS. Unfortunately, from what I understand, it might not be fixed until the FV3 ensemble is in place in 2020. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ji said: this is a weather forum....you want me to post images of the meals ive made in the past 4 days instead? sure, any chance to delete one of your posts makes my day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's been so moist though, it's hard to believe even in the option where the energy becomes split it doesn't trend wetter, with 500mb closed off way back in Colorado. The problem is that the upper level flow is compressing and deamplifying as it comes east. If the system is consolidated and amplified enough to hold together to the east coast where it would have a chance to amplify again based on lower level baroclinic forces then it could work but if its weak and strung out it might wash out before getting here and then redevelop too late for our purposes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 ICON has the long duration light snow from 76-105 (At least) Coastal looks to miss with the heavy stuff to the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 One would think that the 12z ICON should come north some based on h5 at 78 -- looking at the s/w in the NE moving NE some compared to 06z at 84, which results in slight height rises in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, yoda said: One would think that the 12z ICON should come north some based on h5 at 78 -- looking at the s/w in the NE moving NE some compared to 06z at 84, which results in slight height rises in the east It's a good run with widespread totals of 3 to the north and the heaviest stripe from Central VA south to the boarder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: ICON has the long duration light snow from 76-105 (At least) Coastal looks to miss with the heavy stuff to the SE. I'll take my chances, IF the coastal can make it slightly north of Hattaras before taking it's right turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, cae said: As PSU mentioned, NCEP is aware of the problem with the GEFS. Unfortunately, from what I understand, it might not be fixed until the FV3 ensembles are in place in 2020. Unfortunately it's not an easy fix, and probably isnt cost effective for them to fix the old ensembles if they are currently in the process of developing a new system based on the FV3 operational. Of course if the rumors that the FV3 has been disappointing and they might not switch over for a while are true that complicates things. I would be interested in knowing if the issues are just because the FV3 is new and needs some minor adjustments or if they are now doubting its viability as a replacement to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: It's a good run with widespread totals of 3 to the north and the heaviest stripe from Central VA south to the boarder. Where are you seeing accumulations already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Where are you seeing accumulations already? Weather Models is pretty quick with the ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now