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I honestly hope you aren’t this miserable in all facets of your life, Ji.... my god. 

3-6” area wide with ratios is the consensus so far today. Particularly for the DC crowd. ILL SURE AS HECK TAKE IT to kick off a prime winter pattern. Potentially the best prolonged setup we’ve seen in a few winters in these parts. Not every storm has to be a KU. Well have plenty of chances for those through mid February.

 

That being said... anybody who is writing off a storm like this 3 days out with the jackpot one state south of the majority of us in VA, is a damn fool. If you’d rather be in the jackpot at this stage in the game with such a complex 500 h5 setup, you’re also a fool.

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14 minutes ago, Amped said:

I agree with JI. 2-4 is fine for a clipper, but I'd expect more from a Miller B with a 1040 high.

 

 

10 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

This is...not a Miller B.

Where is this miller b crap coming from?  Look at the animation. Storm comes out of the gulf coast and up the coast. Classic miller a.  

IMG_8260.thumb.GIF.03a34f496707d59fd766c05692cb4ecf.GIF

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12 minutes ago, H2O said:

When at a high school dance and all the really hot chicks ignore you only a fool refuses to twerk with the nerdy girl with braces and ponytails who comes up and asks to hit the floor.

 

2-4" snow when it hasn't snowed is a good snow.

Eh. I’ve been here now for 3 winters, I have yet to see warning level snow. I’m kind of bummed that may not happen, no gaurentees ill be here next year.

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8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Yes PSU and W MD crowd... majority of the storm may miss you to the south. You’re still fully aware you’ll see a 0.2-0.4” qpf burst at the jump with very high ratios which will land you as much snow as everyone else. 

I would be happy with that but currently the runs we were discussing did not give me .2-.4 qpf. 

7 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

they want *more* snow than everyone else

Not true. I was totally happy with dec 2009 and south of me got more. Same with feb 5 2010. Same with Feb 2015 when I got 7" and south of me 10-12". 

Say this trends North some and  DC gets 7" I would be totally happy with 4-5". But if just south of me gets 6-8" and I get 1-2" not so much. It's just a matter of degrees and totals. I'm usually happy regardless of what anyone else gets if I get 4"+. That's kind of my threshold. I don't do the Ji thing and compare to everyone around me. But if I get 2" and nearby gets 5+ then I'm left a little disappointed. 

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4 to 7 inches for most, 7 to 10 locally central VA to s/c MD ... needs to lift off the runway a bit based on current consensus, to improve to 7 to 12 inch event for most ... nice frontal energy visible west of s CA on satellite, hoping this invigorates the situation over n Mexico then Texas by Friday morning. GEM looks too suppressed at this point, GFS at least brings low center inland over southeast and closer to se VA. ... optimistic that later guidance will improve, this is a very cold arctic high forming over nw Canada trailing the main center in SK and models may be underplaying low thickness field likely to extend through western portions of the ridge to north of storm. This would translate into more hangback energy and snowfall. 

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Eh. I’ve been here now for 3 winters, I have yet to see warning level snow. I’m kind of bummed that may not happen, no gaurentees ill be here next year.

might not be warning level for some but long duration.  Once the ground is white and covered then its about seeing snow fall for a long time while I watch TV vice 4 inches or 8.  that's just me.  I toggled back and forth quite bit between 6z and 12z and to this untrained eye it looked ok to me at h5...or I should say 12z looked better than 6z being a bit more amped.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

might not be warning level for some but long duration.  Once the ground is white and covered then its about seeing snow fall for a long time while I watch TV vice 4 inches or 8.  that's just me.  I toggled back and forth quite bit between 6z and 12z and to this untrained eye it looked ok to me at h5...or I should say 12z looked better than 6z being a bit more amped.  

The problem with taking the models verbatim on duration is that duration events almost NEVER play out in our region as depicted. That is a pretty hard to argue point around these parts. 

I see the 12z GFS dropping almost 1/3 its qpf as the slp finally starts to gear up and pull away. Obviously, taking the best lift with it and out of our region. I personally would not put much stock into a 30hr+ snow event around here without an extremely unique setup. My current wag off latest guidance is a quicker exit of precip or slower saturation upon onset to override dry mid-levels.

My guess would be 4-8 hours less of precip then modeled which is probably .2-.25 less qpf depending on whether the front side is slow or backside is quick. Puts everyone in DC metro around 2-4" event which is my first official guess. 

I'd take that

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Tough to tell with all the shades of blue but it looks like 5-6 for DC proper and a good portion of the CWA.  Like the look a lot. 

Start with the lowest shade of blue bordering the dark gray.  That is the 2" line.  Each line you pass as you move toward DC is an increase of 0.5"

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