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Beggars can’t be Choosers strung out mess Jan 8/9


HoarfrostHubb

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They’re now talking about the kids doing assignments via computer from home to get rid of the missed snow days.  I don’t know how many that don’t have computers nowadays, can’t be too many.  I’m all for that.  I miss the old days, I’m better now for having to rough it back then!

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Nothing like getting 23 flakes after tracking a system for 5 days.  Looks to be done until the folks up north cash in for round 2. Powderfreak to alex to tamarack special.

GYX "most likely" snowfall map has MBY in the steepest part of the gradient, showing 6-8" 15 miles NW and <1" only 15 miles SE.  I'm in the 4-6 color, but both 1" and 6+ are probably in play.  Had 1.3" on 0.11" LE at 6:30, may not have reached 2".  At 5 it was borderline mod-hvy, but 30 minutes later it was little flakes and not many of them.
 

I was 13, They rarely called off school back then unless it was 12"+, If the buses couldn't go, You either had to walk to school or stay home.

This always brings back our Ft. Kent experience (which I've posted here more than once - :P ) - 1.5 days lost (both in 1984) to snow in 10 winters, which averaged 130"+ each, less at the once-a-day co-op which grossly under-reports.  (about 20" less, on average, than CAR, while the eyeball test says FK should be 10-15" more.  In my 9 full winters there, I averaged 134", CAR 118", FK 98".)

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gotta watch for icing late afternoon into evening as a steady batch of precipitation works its way into the region around 7pm. 

Most meso models keep temps around 31 degrees almost inside 128 so things could become a bit dangerous 

another batch around 2-4 A.M. swings in as well with developing secondary 

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Wow... the 12z GFS jacked up the upslope event again. 

Just buries the northern Greens in northwest flow.  Be interesting to see how this plays out.   Quite the difference between NAM/WRF and GFS so far.  RGEM has been more like the GFS though.

Be an interesting event to see if Alex or J.Spin pulls off more.  Alex has the elevation but J.Spin has the nod in orographic lift, IMO.

dowGuGU.png

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43 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

They’re now talking about the kids doing assignments via computer from home to get rid of the missed snow days.  I don’t know how many that don’t have computers nowadays, can’t be too many.  I’m all for that.  I miss the old days, I’m better now for having to rough it back then!

That has come up in some schools in Mass as well.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wow... the 12z GFS jacked up the upslope event again. 

Just buries the northern Greens in northwest flow.  Be interesting to see how this plays out.   Quite the difference between NAM/WRF and GFS so far.  RGEM has been more like the GFS though.

Be an interesting event to see if Alex or J.Spin pulls off more.  Alex has the elevation but J.Spin has the nod in orographic lift, IMO.

dowGuGU.png

feeling sick for Wed/Thursday already.  A lot of ropes will get dropped. 

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

gotta watch for icing late afternoon into evening as a steady batch of precipitation works its way into the region around 7pm. 

Most meso models keep temps around 31 degrees almost inside 128 so things could become a bit dangerous 

another batch around 2-4 A.M. swings in as well with developing secondary 

I'm not sure how steady the precip is going to be but it will be interesting to see if NE Ma stays cold enough to have frozen precip.  Currently LWM is reporting 34. I have 32 at home. My home is a few miles for LWM.

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11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

That has come up in some schools in Mass as well.

Yeah...I have friends who work in towns where this is done.  Not sure how I feel about it as a teacher.  Some packets done at home do not equal learning...plus, I would be getting paid for sitting on my arse.

Foggy here in Leominster, near 30F

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2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm not sure how steady the precip is going to be but it will be interesting to see if NE Ma stays cold enough to have frozen precip.  Currently LWM is reporting 34. I have 32 at home. My home is a few miles for LWM.

Ya we’ll see how the tuck works .

id like to hear from Scott or will about this with regard to if temps have reasonable shot to stay a stitch below freezing.

Meso’s highlight Boston west burbs and N and Nw not really Essex country , cept maybe extreme western portions 

Nashua is sitting at 28 now 

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah...I have friends who work in towns where this is done.  Not sure how I feel about it as a teacher.  Some packets done at home do not equal learning...plus, I would be getting paid for sitting on my arse.

Foggy here in Leominster, near 30F

Many school districts  now have the packets for when school is called off. Schools are now closed on a more regular basis than ever before.  When I was going to school it took a significant storm for school to be called off.    And rarely was school called off the night before. That only happened during the Blizzard of 78.  And there were no delayed openings.

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19.9F  Few snow grains...

Lastest runs have perked my interest again in part 2 of this event.  Awful lot of cold air that needs to be scoured out.  About .6 or more qpf to come as model trends seem to be jqcking precip.  Really marginal.  Will this be freezing rain to snow for my area north of Dendrite?  Really hard to tell how this will play out. Curious to see the Euro!

Good luck to you guys further north.  Alex and I talk about his area.  So many local orographics with him.  Sometimes he really gets screwed during the event and makes it up on the backside upslope.  

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wow... the 12z GFS jacked up the upslope event again. 

Just buries the northern Greens in northwest flow.  Be interesting to see how this plays out.   Quite the difference between NAM/WRF and GFS so far.  RGEM has been more like the GFS though.

Be an interesting event to see if Alex or J.Spin pulls off more.  Alex has the elevation but J.Spin has the nod in orographic lift, IMO.

dowGuGU.png

If by chance nothing changes over the next three weeks, we need to create a new NNE thread for all four of you before someone strangles the upslope crew.

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27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya we’ll see how the tuck works .

id like to hear from Scott or will about this with regard to if temps have reasonable shot to stay a stitch below freezing.

Meso’s highlight Boston west burbs and N and Nw not really Essex country , cept maybe extreme western portions 

Nashua is sitting at 28 now 

There's still a mesolow that looks to go across the coast of E MA around late afternoon/early evening...we will have to see if there's still enough cold air to tap into in S/C NH to tuck it south. Cold air is currently hanging tough, but it is still slowly rising and has several more hours to do so. It's not a very strong mesolow...so not sure how far south the tuck will go...it could be pretty weak, but we'll see. Nowcast.

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47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wow... the 12z GFS jacked up the upslope again

dowGuGU.png

What’s surprising to me is the BTV WRF verbatim gives ASH to MHT back to snow between 6-7am Wednesday and has at least .25 QPF for that period 

seems a possible surprise is again “on the table” for SNH 

this is not quite dead to me lol

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's still a mesolow that looks to go across the coast of E MA around late afternoon/early evening...we will have to see if there's still enough cold air to tap into in S/C NH to tuck it south. Cold air is currently hanging tough, but it is still slowly rising and has several more hours to do so. It's not a very strong mesolow...so not sure how far south the tuck will go...it could be pretty weak, but we'll see. Nowcast.

Will is that modeled precip “burst” (showing on gfs between 7-10pm/ and nam as well) associated with weak meso low or something else for N /NE mass / S NH

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16 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It is pretty bad when you consider that the majority of it fell by 11/20.

It is if your looking for a block buster winter but our climo is not like CNE where snow cover from late nov to early March is sometimes near constant (even if just an inch) . We almost never have a blockbuster winter and we almost always have several week periods of crap in SNE. Yes we do get hit hard for several week periods on many years and often we have a decent pack for a month or so at a time .

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It is if your looking for a block buster winter but our climo is not like CNE where snow cover from late nov to early March is sometimes near constant (even if just an inch) . We almost never have a blockbuster winter and we almost always have several week periods of crap in SNE. Yes we do get hit hard for several week periods on many years and often we have a decent pack for a month or so at a time .

I never viewed this winter as one that was going to be a blockbuster. It's been a really bad stretch. 

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