snowmagnet Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I personally think the timing is perfect. I’m just finishing up my Winter Vacation, so it’s a great time to start looking for Winter Vacation part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: You know we have had a bad season when we are looking at individual members of the EPS. SOP man. BTW- control has a HECS on the 17-18th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: See...I know for me, the shutout pattern is more peaceful. The "Hey look over there" pattern bothers me more because of the close misses that can ensue (especially when you've had a run of those the last couple of years) Guess it feels better if we're all kinda disappointed together, lol (and that we've earned a good hit!) I used to feel that way, but since I have a ski pass this year, I'll take near misses since we still get cold and the northeast resorts will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the corner has been turned. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just to make sure everyone knows I'm using the term HECS properly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Just to make sure everyone knows I'm using the term HECS properly [annoying nerd] well technically it's a high end MECS [/nerd] 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 EPS with a -NAO, ridging into the PNA domain, retrograding Aleutian low, low heights along the EC at the end of the run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: SOP man. BTW- control has a HECS on the 17-18th Starting to get some SECS MECS and KU HECS showing up on guidance. We are getting somehwere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 More intense TPV dropping south towards Hudson Bay by day 13 on the 12z EPS, with +heights forming near GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 EPS seems to be bringing the epic pattern from the weeklies forward in time. 12z is pretty damn sweet at the end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: EPS seems to be bringing the epic pattern from the weeklies forward in time. 12z is pretty damn sweet at the end. Your call for a quicker flip looks to be a good one. EPS starts flipping the PAC at D9 on the 12z. #within10days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just to make sure everyone knows I'm using the term HECS properly Fringed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 the EPS went from crap to gold in like 2 days. Response to SOI, MJO, SSW.....and next week was suppose to be 60s and warm...now below average and snow. the pattern shift might start January 7th LOL...right where the weeklikes had it 4-5 weeks ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS seems to be bringing the epic pattern from the weeklies forward in time. 12z is pretty damn sweet at the end. Maybe I am optimistic, after the really incredible 24 hour change, but my point is the best storm potential is yet to arrive. We should really have multiple oppurtunities to score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: SOP man. BTW- control has a HECS on the 17-18th This is awesome, I've been watching that pond ridge north of Alaska pop up on the last few runs.. we could go back to strong -AO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Your call for a quicker flip looks to be a good one. EPS starts flipping the PAC at D9 on the 12z. #within10days I really like the PV dropping south this run. Its also more intense/expansive. We have a daughter vortex on our side, and she will surely shed off some...granddaughters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 -NAO, +PNA, -AO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I really like the PV dropping south this run. Its also more intense/expansive. We have a daughter vortex on our side, and she will surely shed off some...granddaughters? We’re about to have a PV family reunion over NA... No doubt huge changes over the last 24-36 hours...as PSU pointed out, I think we’ve turned the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Starting to look like the pattern flip will happen on Jan 15th give or take a few days. I thinK PSU and a few others have been keying on this date for like a month or more. If it happens that way then they deserve some praise for sticking to their predictions even during the “dark ages” of the last week lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Where's that new guy from central PA 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 16 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: -NAO, +PNA, -AO.. This look should continue to improve significantly in time, although it is remarkable where we were 24 hours ago. The improvements are simply stunning. We expected them, based on various factors, but to see concensus and have the models show it and move the time up to Jan 15 th, that is awesome ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: @40/70 Benchmark hey you called it LOL I don't predict long range clown maps. I predict seasons and storms. We'll see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 CPC on board for transition to colder than average pattern and wintry precipitation for mid-Atlantic (week 3-4 discussion lead by S. Baxter) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Where's that new guy from central PA I’m here. The pattern hasn’t changed yet and I’m still only shoveling day 10+ digital snow but things do look much better than a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the corner has been turned. Nope. Don’t fall into the trap/cycle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Starting to look like the pattern flip will happen on Jan 15th give or take a few days. I thinK PSU and a few others have been keying on this date for like a month or more. If it happens that way then they deserve some praise for sticking to their predictions even during the “dark ages” of the last week lol Just now, frd said: This look should continue to improve significantly in time, although it is remarkable where we were 24 hours ago. The improvements are simply remarkable. We expected them, based on various factors, but to see concensus and have the models show it and move the time up to Jan 15 th, that is awesome ! Certainly have been some more encouraging signs in the last 48 hours, but I'd strongly caution against spiking the football. Any snow before the last week-10 days of the month is probably bonus. At this point I'd like to see continued in stability in the ensemble systems forecasting a pattern change +/- the 15th and no signs that it turns into a 2-3 day transitory "good" pattern that's immediately flushed back out by Pac garbage. If things are still stable and looking good beyond the end of the forecast range in 5-7 more days, I think we can start expecting some legit winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: -NAO, +PNA, -AO.. That is not a +PNA. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Nope. Don’t fall into the trap/cycle. You will be measuring snowstorms without your ruler shortly. Hang in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 We have dead puppies, bunnies, and horns being ripped from unicorns. It's as if nobody even cares. Sheesh you people are ruthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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