Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Look at all those undercutters lined up in the Pac. If we can get a nice +pna and some confluence going it might get really busy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Haven't heard much talk about how next week all the sudden become cold and wintry after a warm Tuesday. Its like we got a bonus week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Haven't heard much talk about how next week all the sudden become cold and wintry after a warm Tuesday. Its like we got a bonus week Your mood has improved. Let’s see what we can do about that. It is looking better. Guarded optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, heavy on the northern stream doesnt work well in these parts. Euro blew up the southern shortwave. Eps shows more than the kitchen sink. This one will end up feeling like tracking multiple events by the time its figured out. It's all we got tho so may as well overanalyze it Who's staying up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Day 8 into Day 10 have some very cold 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Haven't heard much talk about how next week all the sudden become cold and wintry after a warm Tuesday. Its like we got a bonus week A little over a week ago we saw signs of it....then, well....you know the rest of the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Looks like we get one brief warm up after next Sunday blizzard before the pattern change takes hold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look at all those undercutters lined up in the Pac. If we can get a nice +pna and some confluence going it might get really busy. Yeah get those pretty orange/red out of Nova Scotia and replace with a nice blue balls 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Who's staying up for the Euro? What else do we have to do. It gonna rain (like ususal) tomorrow. Tempting, but once we start seeing some doozy pop up, so will my willingness to hit the no doze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah get those pretty orange/red out of Nova Scotia and replace with a nice blue balls 50/50. Weather weenies and blue balls. They go hand in hand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks like we get one brief warm up after next Sunday blizzard before the pattern change takes hold Man and I thought I had a good happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I think the 1/13 storm looks good, if it's -NAO it's a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 384 op run....but probably indicative of some of the looks we will start seeing as things evolve over the next week or so. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: 384 op run....but probably indicative of some of the looks we will start seeing as things evolve over the next week or so. I wish there was a love button on here lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I wish there was a love button on here lol. “We heart” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 384 op run....but probably indicative of some of the looks we will start seeing as things evolve over the next week or so. If we can’t get a snow storm in that pattern then, and I am going to use some harsh language, I am going to be darn disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I wish there was a love button on here lol. We are all jonesing for something to track... D9 look doable but difficult and probably frustrating. Seems models are picking up on a D12-14 signal that I think has better potential.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: We are all jonesing for something to track... D9 look doable but difficult and probably frustrating. Seems models are picking up on a D12-14 signal that I think has better potential.... That’s usually how we roll here too. Pattern changes and we miss the first event and then its on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: We are all jonesing for something to track... D9 look doable but difficult and probably frustrating. Seems models are picking up on a D12-14 signal that I think has better potential.... Yes Day 9 would be great but I think we are going to have to wait to the 20th before we start have a real shot at something. Edit : I should say 16th to 20th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 18z gefs has an unusually strong storm signal approaching from the south on the 17th. Interesting.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 18z GEFS agrees with the EPS and starts building heights into AK ~D9. And we have this look by the 18th...low heights forming over the east. Building -NAO. PV dropping down. Look out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: If we can’t get a snow storm in that pattern then, and I am going to use some harsh language, I am going to be darn disappointed. You could not draw a better 500mb map if you were asked to do so That map is a thing of beauty! I agree, that has a snow look for many in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z GEFS agrees with the EPS and starts building heights into AK ~D9. And we have this look by the 18th...low heights forming over the east. Building -NAO. PV dropping down. Look out. Speaking of the GEFS, it did well with the strat, better than the Euro, and at times by a large lead. Something with that model and its ability to discover long lead changes at high lats. Regardless what it was that caused the better outcomes, this was not the first time. Go GEFS ! Lends confidence to a high impact weather event here, near the 16 th to the 22 nd . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 We went from barely anything to track to so many threats and chances thru 384 hrs+ I dont know which to post as there are several drool worthy looks. This FV3 h5 map is calling to me....my goodness: Eta: just shift things a hair farther east and dive that NS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We went from barely anything to track to so many threats and chances thru 384 hrs+ I dont know which to post as there are several drool worthy looks. This FV3 h5 map is calling to me....my goodness: Eta: just shift things a hair farther east and dive that NS Holy hell! If we opened up a thread for every storm threat coming......we would be WXDisco. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 FV3CPO at range has -20s fairly deep into the Plains and -30s just North of the Great Lakes. PV is coming South this run geez. Not sure I want that spreading East or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Yummy, but need moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: Yummy, but need moisture. The unicorns look festive and cheery but we should still keep our expectations in check. Worst case scenario would be a miss with one of the systems ushering in the cold then the PV taking over and we go frigid cold but dry. It's a possibility but I think there will be fluctuations with several dips/retractions from the PV and our times to cash in will be in between. Speculation of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 It does look like we are turning thr corner now that we have full agreement on meaningful change inside of d10. However, there's a lot of history in our region where we struggle during the front side of the change. Unless we pull off a Feb 2015 type of reversal I fully expect to struggle. Looking at the ens member output, snowfall is scarce in relation to how good the h5 mean looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Yesterday we were afraid winter was done Personally, I'm okay with going back to normal hit or miss storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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