aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does look like we are turning thr corner now that we have full agreement on meaningful change inside of d10. However, there's a lot of history in our region where we struggle during the front side of the change. Unless we pull off a Feb 2015 type of reversal I fully expect to struggle. Looking at the ens member output, snowfall is scarce in relation to how good the h5 mean looks. I agree I believe the current airport totals are final Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does look like we are turning thr corner now that we have full agreement on meaningful change inside of d10. However, there's a lot of history in our region where we struggle during the front side of the change. Unless we pull off a Feb 2015 type of reversal I fully expect to struggle. Looking at the ens member output, snowfall is scarce in relation to how good the h5 mean looks. Ehh, lets get the change and go from there. I’d wager we aren’t waiting long for our first frozen event once the pattern flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does look like we are turning thr corner now that we have full agreement on meaningful change inside of d10. However, there's a lot of history in our region where we struggle during the front side of the change. Unless we pull off a Feb 2015 type of reversal I fully expect to struggle. Looking at the ens member output, snowfall is scarce in relation to how good the h5 mean looks. Was thinking the same thing earlier...nj2va and Ralph alluded to the same. I could envision striking out on the front side with the snap then a relax and by the first of Feb we have plenty of cold roaming around the Mid lats and a relaxing pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Was thinking the same thing earlier...nj2va and Ralph alluded to the same. I could envision striking out on the front side with the snap then a relax and by the first of Feb we have plenty of cold roaming around the Mid lats and a relaxing pattern. If we don’t get something before the beginning of February this place is going to get real ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Can you guys let the pattern change first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Can you guys let the pattern change first 0z eps is going to start showing the flip back to warm. It was great while the cold and blocking was here tho 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z eps is going to start showing the flip back to warm. It was great while the cold and blocking was here tho You're just playing into the thread here right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: You're just playing into the thread here right? No Bob is angry. Like an old man trying to return soup to a deli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Can you guys let the pattern change first Nope. They have already failed it and moved to mid-February. Congrats Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Bob is a cool cat but I almost fell for the banana in the tailpipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Bob is a cool cat but I almost fell for the banana in the tailpipe Just joking around but the eps wont be later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just joking around but the eps wont be later My old eyes will not be up for it so I'll have to wait until the sun is high kemosabe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Was thinking the same thing earlier...nj2va and Ralph alluded to the same. I could envision striking out on the front side with the snap then a relax and by the first of Feb we have plenty of cold roaming around the Mid lats and a relaxing pattern. Signal on the EPS for a coastal on the 19/20 too. If next weekend doesn’t work out, looks like that’s another window to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Signal on the EPS for a coastal on the 19/20 too. If next weekend doesn’t work out, looks like that’s another window to track. Yep, by that time the Pac would have improved along with NAO blocking as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Very interesing, we were talking about the strat wind reversal lasting longer here today, I see @griteater made an interesting post on his feed that references this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Also worth mentioning Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Jan 04 2019 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 19 2019-Fri Feb 01 2019 from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ The precipitation forecast trends drier than normal for much of the CONUS, tied to the anticipated ridge-trough pattern helping to keep the Pacific jet away from the West coast, while the trough over the East imports continental polar airmasses that are relatively dry. One exception is above-normal precipitation being favored from the Gulf Coast through Mid-Atlantic, with a mean frontal zone possible here and increased storm activity possible along the baroclinic zone setting up along the eastern seaboard. While not directly implicated, this circulation could increase odds for a substantial winter storm across the major metropolitan areas in the East. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored over the High Plains of Montana, where periods of upslope precipitation become more likely as the period progresses. Aforementioned anomalous southerly flow over southern Alaska increases the odds for above-normal precipitation there, though the panhandle is more likely to see below-normal precipitation downstream of the forecast 500-hPa ridge. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It does look like we are turning thr corner now that we have full agreement on meaningful change inside of d10. However, there's a lot of history in our region where we struggle during the front side of the change. Unless we pull off a Feb 2015 type of reversal I fully expect to struggle. Looking at the ens member output, snowfall is scarce in relation to how good the h5 mean looks. Even if we miss on the front end of a pattern change, do we always have to wait for a "relax"?...Now I'm a bit confused here...Some (lime cranky) are saying that when the cold pattern sets in, it'll be all in one go. Now what does that mean...no relax for weeks, or ebbs and flows in between? (If that makes sense) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 6 hours ago, frd said: Ray, if you can comment, just wondering about this......will there be a point later this month, or in early Feb., where you may have new data / insights for this coming March? I believe I skimmed a post you made here last night ( maybe to @psuhoffman ) where you stated the nature of the ongoing SSWE event may extend our oppurtunities into March this year? Thanks Yes, went normal for March...but if anything, it may end up better due to the SSW. The PV will not be quick to recover, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 6 hours ago, showmethesnow said: That sounds great... for your area. But what about the mid-Atlantic that doesn't do well in Miller Bs which I believe you are keying in on? You guys will get less, but should at least be plowable.....we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Can you guys let the pattern change first Who ya kiddin'? Nature of the beast. A day ago most here were convinced the pattern would likely suck for the duration of winter. A day later there is widespread optimism over the advertised "favorable" pattern change. Epic even. Look at all the snow chances on the ops! But then worry sets in. We could get fringed. How long could this change last? Might be transient. Maybe we should look for flaws in the pattern change that is still more than a week away... Uh oh. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 52 minutes ago, frd said: Also worth mentioning Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Jan 04 2019 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 19 2019-Fri Feb 01 2019 from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ The precipitation forecast trends drier than normal for much of the CONUS, tied to the anticipated ridge-trough pattern helping to keep the Pacific jet away from the West coast, while the trough over the East imports continental polar airmasses that are relatively dry. One exception is above-normal precipitation being favored from the Gulf Coast through Mid-Atlantic, with a mean frontal zone possible here and increased storm activity possible along the baroclinic zone setting up along the eastern seaboard. While not directly implicated, this circulation could increase odds for a substantial winter storm across the major metropolitan areas in the East. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored over the High Plains of Montana, where periods of upslope precipitation become more likely as the period progresses. Aforementioned anomalous southerly flow over southern Alaska increases the odds for above-normal precipitation there, though the panhandle is more likely to see below-normal precipitation downstream of the forecast 500-hPa ridge. Great for you if that works out....but do me a favor and cite a weak el nino event during which it did. Tough for SNE to be screwed consistently with a prevalent n stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Great for you if that works out....but do me a favor and cite a weak el nino event during which it did. Tough for SNE to be screwed consistently with a prevalent n stream. Great to see you offering insight in here. I think we all can live with yesterday’s Euro 46 day snowfall map. Not a person in the northeast could complain. I’d gladly switch locations for the rest of winter no matter where the battleground sets up. You guys have more wiggle room up there. Looking forward to what looks to be a nice stretch of winter coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Great to see you offering insight in here. I think we all can live with yesterday’s Euro 46 day snowfall map. Not a person in the northeast could complain. I’d gladly switch locations for the rest of winter no matter where the battleground sets up. You guys have more wiggle room up there. Looking forward to what looks to be a nice stretch of winter coming up. I like posting in here. You guys are a really passionate group. I think we are all in for a fun ride. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 I am kind of curious what PSU thinks of the whole situation. He hasn;t posted much since the whiplash shift to happy time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Great for you if that works out....but do me a favor and cite a weak el nino event during which it did. Tough for SNE to be screwed consistently with a prevalent n stream. Not sure what you are getting at here exactly. I think we all understand that Miller B events tend to be favored in weak Nino years, but certainly that is not exclusively the case. But more to the point, the author of the discussion referenced in that post simply suggested that above normal precip may be favored in the Mid Atlantic region during weeks 3-4, and given the setup a winter storm is possible for the east coast. What specifically are you asking be cited? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You guys will get less, but should at least be plowable.....we'll see. I'm not as picky about my snow...but just an FYI the January 2005 storm dropped about 3-6" across most of this forum depending on location and 90% of the people in here consider that storm a total disaster and hate it because just northeast of here got 1-2 feet. Same in 2015 BEFORE the pattern shifted south in mid February...during that run of storms that were slamming New England with 12" plus and this area was getting 1-3 and 2-4" storms you would have thought we were having the worst winter ever. No one in here was satisfied with their 3" when NYC to BOS was getting 20". So when you say "it will be plowable" just a warning if DC gets like 8"+ most are usually satisfied and "OK" even if other places get more...but if New England is getting 20" and DC is getting 3-4" most in here will be in a total meltdown temper tantrum of rage. I am not saying DC needs to be the bullseye like in 2010 for most here to be happy but it can't be a BIG disparity or else they will feel ripped off and disappointed even if they end up slightly above average on snow. So I am not sure exactly what you mean...but just letting you some here have a pretty high bar for this winter to be satisfied and if Boston ends up with 70" and this region in general ends up with like 25 they will not be happy even if that is slightly above average. ETA: I had not read the thread the last hour and see things may have got a little testy...I am not trying to jump into any fight, I was just letting you know what the mindset and bar is for general snowfall satisfaction around here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 If someone offered me 50% of whatever Boston ends up with this winter I think I would take that deal. That’s just me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Tonight's CMC after Day 7 is LOLworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Tonight's CMC after Day 7 is LOLworthy January 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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