Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 GEFS not real gung ho with snowfall on the d10 potential but a number of mixed precip solutions are in the mix. Like I said yesterday, I'd be happy with a glaze of zr before it gets washed away. Yep, I'm that far down in the valley... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS not real gung ho with snowfall on the d10 potential but a number of mixed precip solutions are in the mix. Like I said yesterday, I'd be happy with a glaze of zr before it gets washed away. Yep, I'm that far down in the valley... lol Bob’s deb phase lasted about 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’d wager January is not a shutout as some were predicting the last few days. GEFS basically says the pattern is workable past D9 or so. AO looks like it's tanked after D6 or 7. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That works and it's not even that far away. I don't expect some magic flip from Pac barf hell to wide open HECS but that mean panel is def not a shutout pattern. Sooner the better... Thanks! GEFS 2m from next Thursday and beyond is definitely "workable" and like you said, not impossible as we are entering peak climo. Liking the theme of an earlier turn to better times ahead... so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS basically says the pattern is workable past D9 or so. AO looks like it's tanked after D6 or 7. GEFS has all of Canada BN with temps late in the run. That's a very good sign that the majority of ens members deflect the pac jet away from a direct shot. EPS did the same at 0z. All we can do is hang on for dear life and pass time... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS not real gung ho with snowfall on the d10 potential but a number of mixed precip solutions are in the mix. Like I said yesterday, I'd be happy with a glaze of zr before it gets washed away. Yep, I'm that far down in the valley... lol i would be happy with the type of storm we got on dec 26...cant remember the year...but it was like 2 hours of good snow--1-2 inches...then sleet and glaze--then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 day MSLP panels look great on the GEFS. Get a pressure pattern going like this and the only thing that can stand in our way is bad luck. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS has all of Canada BN with temps late in the run. That's a very good sign that the majority of ens members deflect the pac jet away from a direct shot. EPS did the same at 0z. All we can do is hang on for dear life and pass time... I am already looking for when our new winter pattern breakdown starts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: 5 day MSLP panels look great on the GEFS. Get a pressure pattern going like this and the only thing that can stand in our way is bad luck. we havent had bad luck since the last time we needed good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Good news for the mountains/ski resorts. Euro and GFS starting to honk the potential for upslope mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: I am already looking for when our new winter pattern breakdown starts Plenty of time for the breakdown to happen this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro has morning flurries on Monday. Could be thread worthy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 How can something that never started breakdown? Thats like launching a fishing boat and forgetting to put the plug in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has morning flurries on Monday. Could be thread worthy. Completely skips Ji's house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Completely skips Ji's house uh oh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: What is typical around here is that as we wait for a pattern change to the better before we actually get that pattern change to the better we will start looking for the timing of the breakdown of the not yet materialized better pattern. What a group It only took 3 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has morning flurries on Monday. Could be thread worthy. Columbia-Rockville deathband is back! And playing all the old hits: “suck on this jackpotville!”, “how much for philly? Nothing!”, “we’ll always have Feb 2010” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has morning flurries on Monday. Could be thread worthy. Heck we wouldn't even need to extrapolate the NAM Looking forward to SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro making a nice shift like the GFS with less ridging and more confluence in east for the d9-11 window. Are we going to be tracking a legit threat inside of 10 days? Wut?! ETA: before Ji comes along and says the run sucks... It's no doubt much closer to having something to track than any previous run in weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro has 850 at zero or well below from the 9th through the 12th so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 That looks okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: That looks okay this is hilarious---the Euro now says next week will be pretty much below normal temps ending with some snow potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Looks like some of the ensembles from last night. Less northern stream and southern wave turning the coast. Under 10 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Man...so close to a big hit... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ji said: i would be happy with the type of storm we got on dec 26...cant remember the year...but it was like 2 hours of good snow--1-2 inches...then sleet and glaze--then rain 2012 I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 We’re back in the blue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro has a nor’easter that fringes us. Seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Bomb cyclone redux wont sit well for 95% of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 we dont want the euro solution....looks like Dec 30,2000...urg...late developing storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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