psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Someone on here was saying that Phase 7 isn't bad in January. I can't remember who it was or and they didn't mention what evidence they had to base it on. Depends...in a nino phase 7 is cool with blocking. All years it's cool November to January but warm December to February so early January is kind of borderline where that phase shifts from cold to warm. And the significance of 7 in January is low. Conclusion....I dunno. But I think it's safe to say 7 is prefers to 6 which is a torch phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Gefs looks amazing with Hl blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Gefs looks a lot like the op day 16 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Depends...in a nino phase 7 is cool with blocking. All years it's cool November to January but warm December to February so early January is kind of borderline where that phase shifts from cold to warm. And the significance of 7 in January is low. Conclusion....I dunno. But I think it's safe to say 7 is prefers to 6 which is a torch phase. Mjo 7 combined with the effects ssw...who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Gefs looks a lot like the op day 16 lolDude....the pac changes rapidly by next Friday on gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gefs looks amazing with Hl blocking Slightly more ridging over the central us then ideal but damn the pattern up top and in the Pacific looks good and I have to assume that cold building in Canada will flood down into the eastern us from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs looks a lot like the op day 16 lol Dude....the pac changes rapidly by next Friday on gefs Yea it's crazy. Gefs keeps speeding it up even. Maybe the EPS is out to lunch on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea it's crazy. Gefs keeps speeding it up even. Maybe the EPS is out to lunch on this one? Go back to the gefs on the 25-26th and look at day 9-15 then compare to verification. I dont trust the gefs past day 7 right now. Eps could be wrong but its been winning the pac model war lately. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Go back to the gefs on the 25-26th and look at day 9-15 then compare to verification. I dont trust the gefs past day 7 right now. Eps could be wrong but its been winning the pac model war lately. Bingo. The GEFS can’t hold a look for 6 hours. I’ll bank with the Euro for now even though I am admittedly buying what the GEFS is selling. The pattern evolution is pretty evident. When/whether it translates downstream or not is still to be determined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Go back to the gefs on the 25-26th and look at day 9-15 then compare to verification. I dont trust the gefs past day 7 right now. Eps could be wrong but its been winning the pac model war lately. It was only like 4-5 days ago that the EPS was spitting out great looks day 15. They have both been awful past day 7 lately. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Fv3 378 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Fv3 378 What about it? Nice storm but looks like a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Nao and 50 50 low allows frozen precip to be close by next week per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: Nao and 50 50 low allows frozen precip to be close by next week per euro And per the Farmer's Almanac...lol I mean it literally says: "Big storm to the west brings significant rain/mixed precipitation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Looking over the EPS and really see no major changes from previous runs. The EPS and the GEFS are still worlds apart on the timing on any possible flip in the PAC. Control run had a surprise for us though. As @mappyalways says. We Take!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the EPS and really see no major changes from previous runs. The EPS and the GEFS are still worlds apart on the timing on any possible flip in the PAC. EPS is getting there, just painfully slow. There is progression with the ridge building towards AK and splitting the area of lower heights in the EPAC. Up top and in the NA, there is incremental improvement, but again- slowww. Can see hints towards D15 of the NAO trending towards neutral. Just a gut feeling, but I think the EPS will accelerate the pattern change over the next few runs with the MJO moving into better phases and as it nails down the post SWE TPV position(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Another good GFS op run in the LR. Gives me some confidence that winter is not dead yet. Waiting for h5 maps to update over NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Out to 360 and fairly certain that’s a look we would like to see at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Tomorrow at 0z is when I start paying attention truly. If there aren't opportunities showing up at the end of those runs then I say uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Tomorrow at 0z is when I start paying attention truly. If there aren't opportunities showing up at the end of those runs then I say uh oh I think it’s moving in the right direction. Haven’t looked at GEFS for 6z just yet. Op looked decent enough to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS is getting there, just painfully slow. There is progression with the ridge building towards AK and spitting the area of lower heights in the EPAC. Up top and in the NA, there is incremental improvement, but again- slowww. Can see hints towards 15 of the NAO trending towards neutral. Just a gut feeling, but I think the EPS will accelerate the pattern change over the next few runs with the MJO moving into better phases and as it nails down the post SWE PV position(s). Been keying on what we see in regards to the jet and in particular whether a split flow will/when occur. This will be the initial indicator of the PAC beginning to flip and will occur a couple of days before we see the results at 500s. IMO no split and we have no flip as we have no northern stream jet to build and strengthen the EPO and force the pv and rotating energy around it farther westward into the Aleutians. Now there has been talk about the EPS lagging 5 days or so behind the GEFS on this flip and I can see this being the case myself when I project ahead. But I can also see where the pattern on the EPS fails as well. Now if this is just a matter of 5 day lag with the EPS then we are well within the range where we should see the EPS picking up on what I consider the precursor event which signals the flip, the splitting of the flow. And that is what is a touch concerning. At this point the EPS has been ever so slightly and increasingly hinting about it but it has been a very slow process with nowhere near the signal I would hope to see at this point. Now it may be nothing more then the ESP not picking up on the MJO and once it does it is like flipping a switch. But on the other hand maybe the EPS is picking up on the fact that we have a beast of a jet that refuses to be shoved around. One way or the other I don't think we will have to wait to much longer (couple of days) before we get a good indication of which model is more right. Here's hoping it is the GEFS because the EPS might just be kicking this possible flip down the road even farther then the 5 days that was thrown out. eta: There we go. The last couple of frames hadn't quite downloaded yet when I looked over the overnight EPS earlier. Just glanced again and out of the blue on those last few frames a decent signal for a split flow showed up just like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Tell you what I love seeing on the GEFS. Watching the PAC jet taking an extended vacation down in Hawaii. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 32 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Tell you what I love seeing on the GEFS. Watching the PAC jet taking an extended vacation down in Hawaii. I think it has earned it, don't you? It has been busy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Tell you what I love seeing on the GEFS. Watching the PAC jet taking an extended vacation down in Hawaii. The EPS last night continues the progression the weeklies were on. Actually they are slightly ahead of the weeklies. Look at the heights around AK the last 48 hours of the run. You can see the epo flip happening. Compete last nights run to the last weeklies. I'll take last nights same time. Eps Weeklies same time The central pac ridge shifts east then migrated poleward to feed the epo as the forcing shifts. We focus on the impacts here and the trough just off the west coast as they the direct impact but as the tropical forcing migrates poleward and eastward due to the coriolis effect it pumps that central PAC ridge which tightens the PAC jet then blasts it down into the Conus. Either the mjo propagating east or weakening to allow the forcing east from the nino to take over would shift that where we need it off the west coast to feed unto the epo and cut off the PAC puke flow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the EPS and really see no major changes from previous runs. The EPS and the GEFS are still worlds apart on the timing on any possible flip in the PAC. Control run had a surprise for us though. As @mappyalways says. We Take!!! banned 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The EPS last night continues the progression the weeklies were on. Actually they are slightly ahead of the weeklies. Look at the heights around AK the last 48 hours of the run. You can see the epo flip happening. Compete last nights run to the last weeklies. I'll take last nights same time. Eps Weeklies same time The central pac ridge shifts east then migrated poleward to feed the epo as the forcing shifts. We focus on the impacts here and the trough just off the west coast as they the direct impact but as the tropical forcing migrates poleward and eastward due to the coriolis effect it pumps that central PAC ridge which tightens the PAC jet then blasts it down into the Conus. Either the mjo propagating east or weakening to allow the forcing east from the nino to take over would shift that where we need it off the west coast to feed unto the epo and cut off the PAC puke flow. I actually thought the GEFS looked like trash this AM on the 6z run. I am starting to get fed up here. Bob is converting me. I have no idea why the delay and although Canada gets very cold I see no method ( yet ) to deliver the cold, I almost say you see that more in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the EPS and really see no major changes from previous runs. The EPS and the GEFS are still worlds apart on the timing on any possible flip in the PAC. Control run had a surprise for us though. As @mappyalways says. We Take!!! From www.ecmwf.int for those who want some background to the euro op and control differences: "For the medium-range forecasts an ensemble of 52 individual ensemble members are created twice a day. One member is at a higher spatial resolution than the other members (called the HRES at ECMWF), its initial state is the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and it uses the currently best description of the model physics. The HRES provides a highly detailed description of future weather and averaged over many forecasts it is the most accurate forecast for a certain period, which is currently estimated as 10 days for large scale properties of the atmosphere. However for any particular forecast it may not be the most skilful member of the ensemble. Also when viewed in isolation it cannot provide an estimate of forecast uncertainty or confidence. Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied. The perturbed members (50 members) are similar to the CNTL but their initial states and model physics have been perturbed to explore the currently understood range of uncertainty in the observations and the model. They provide a range of possible future weather states. When averaged over many forecasts (although not necessarily for any particular forecast) these have lower skill than either the HRES or the CNTL. However they do provide an estimate of the forecast uncertainty or confidence. The CNTL and perturbed members are continued beyond fifteen days at a reduced horizontal resolution." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, mappy said: banned We clutch!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: We clutch!? we apprehend we abduct we grapple 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 we purse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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