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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It's certainly not much better through 318.  Almost completely opposite of the GEFS. +EPO, +NAO, -PNA. 

Every time it looks like the ridging wants to build in AK, it just gets beaten down.  Quite the relentless PAC on the EPS.  The Euro OP blinked first...maybe EPS will be next (at 00z?)

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Thanks,  that what I thought, the battle rages.  

Yea, EPS sucks. North American furnace d12+. Not even in the same galaxy as the GEFS/GEPS. 

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9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@frd I saw that post by Simon Lee.  Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?).  Reversal all the way down....  Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward.  Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern.  It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo.  

Yes, I believe overall the trends for downward propagation have improved. If so, still will take time to get into the models. Location specifics also hard to pin point , but some models long range seem to create the cold air source near Hudson Bay.    

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS has below normal heights sprawling around the entire Arctic Circle by d12. One ens is going to bust horribly. 

Eps is an outlier and it should be colder given the mjo and ssw.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS with one of the worst runs of the year

EPS has the best MJO forecast and the worst 500mb pattern. lol. What an awful run. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

EPS has the best MJO forecast and the worst 500mb pattern. lol. What an awful run. 

although the Euro is way better than GFS...ive seen the GEFS beat the EPS quite a few times

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Just now, nj2va said:

Every time it looks like the ridging wants to build in AK, it just gets beaten down.  Quite the relentless PAC on the EPS.  

The differences up top are pretty staggering between the two.  Euro has a +NAO throughout the eps run.

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Just now, Ji said:

although the Euro is way better than GFS...ive seen the GEFS beat the EPS quite a few times

We're going to have to put all our faith in north american NWP because europe just cancelled Jan. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

although the Euro is way better than GFS...ive seen the GEFS beat the EPS quite a few times

I’ve seen it regularly bust in the 11-15 day period since it’s upgrade 5 or so years ago.  

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’ve seen it regularly bust in the 11-15 day period since it’s upgrade 5 or so years ago.  

It better bust again or I'm going on an epic melt/rant

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We're going to have to put all our faith in north american NWP because europe just cancelled Jan. 

what dosent make sense is how this SSW would cause the worst blue of the year around the Arctic and Greenland lol

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It better bust again or I'm going on an epic melt/rant

Most don’t follow it much outside the December to March period.  It frequently gets beat by the GFES beyond day 10 when nobody is really paying attention. We did have two cases in the last few winters where it happened as well

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Looks the same as 0Z.  Differences are negligible....So, it's tied for the worst run of the year.

Actually 0z looked a tad better at the end. Appears no 'good' trend is underway though.

EPS is on one hell of an extended run of bad chili.

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I know there are a few on here that have photographic memories....Anyone recall how the Euro handled last years SSW event?  Wonder what the LR progs were like in early Feb?  I know this question is a tall order that will probably go unanswered but figured I would try....

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Most don’t follow it much outside the December to March period.  It frequently gets beat by the GFES beyond day 10 when nobody is really paying attention. We did have two cases in the last few winters where it happened as well

Wow, thats very interesting.   

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

I know there are a few on here that have photographic memories....Anyone recall how the Euro handled last years SSW event?  Wonder what the LR progs were like in early Feb?  I know this question is a tall order that will probably go unanswered but figured I would try....

Great question, I dont remember, but like to hear form anyone who does.  

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I know there are a few on here that have photographic memories....Anyone recall how the Euro handled last years SSW event?  Wonder what the LR progs were like in early Feb?  I know this question is a tall order that will probably go unanswered but figured I would try....

I just asked two people and got two different answers.  One said the GEFS schooled it and the other said both the GEFS and EPS clearly saw it well 15 days out.  I’m guessing if you scroll back through HM’s twitter there’s an answer there 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, this weekend was a mini melt. I'll go full tilt if the EPS furnace verifies. 

I understand this does suck but we are at the mercy of waiting 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, this weekend was a mini melt. I'll go full tilt if the EPS furnace verifies. 

i am sure you will say week 3 looks like a weenies dream tomorrow evening

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I just asked two people and got two different answers.  One said the GEFS schooled it and the other said both the GEFS and EPS clearly saw it well 15 days out.  I’m guessing if you scroll back through HM’s twitter there’s an answer there 

Thanks...much appreciated.  I'll just take this as the GEFS is always right when it comes to the strat effects! lol

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