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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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41 minutes ago, frd said:

Yeah what you are saying could evolve. Have you seen the various MJO forecast this AM. I guess for me the takeaway was the number of days in phase 5 of the MJO and how long it is taking to move forward. 

Seems the trend last 48 hours is to slow the progression to 7 and 8 even more. Basically longer than forecasted. And all I can think of is your buddy, JB, LOL and his call for the opposite this season, in which  the MJO would cycle in the cold phases way more than the warm. 

 

My issues with JB are well documented but in that regard his theory made sense and I and many others agreed to an extent.  The mjo is really just a measure of where convection is in the western Tropical Pac and Indian Ocean.  The reason the soi links is when the mjo are in phases 3-6 the pressures are likely lower around and west of Australia which would favor a positive soi. The reason a modoki nino is good is the warm waters in the central PAC favor the most convection and forcing to be in a good location to promote the epo ridge. An east based nino pushes that east and floods the Conus with warmth. The mjo in phases 3-6 pulls it too far west and also floods the Conus with PAC puke. There is a reason this soi spike was a record for a nino base oni. And this mjo was a record for time in phase 5 and near a record amplitude for a Nino. And no shock we had a record soi spike for a nino oni with it.  None of that would be expected given the SST. 

The question then is why?  There is a correlation with a sswe and we had a record sswe December event so perhaps....and some way more knowledgeable think that was the case. If that's the case we should be good to go soon. But what if it's Tips (jb stole it) idea that the warmth all over and lack of gradients is muting the nino and thus a lingering Nina atmospheric base state will persist...and in that case we are cooked. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My issues with JB are well documented but in that regard his theory made sense and I and many others agreed to an extent.  The mjo is really just a measure of where convection is in the western Tropical Pac and Indian Ocean.  The reason the soi links is when the mjo are in phases 3-6 the pressures are likely lower around and west of Australia which would favor a positive soi. The reason a modoki nino is good is the warm waters in the central PAC favor the most convection and forcing to be in a good location to promote the epo ridge. An east based nino pushes that east and floods the Conus with warmth. The mjo in phases 3-6 pulls it too far west and also floods the Conus with PAC puke. There is a reason this soi spike was a record for a nino base oni. And this mjo was a record for time in phase 5 and near a record amplitude for a Nino. And no shock we had a record soi spike for a nino oni with it.  None of that would be expected given the SST. 

The question then is why?  There is a correlation with a sswe and we had a record sswe December event so perhaps....and some way more knowledgeable think that was the case. If that's the case we should be good to go soon. But what if it's Tips (jb stole it) idea that the warmth all over and lack of gradients is muting the nino and thus a lingering Nina atmospheric base state will persist...and in that case we are cooked. 

Seriously, I missed that, LOL.  So he reads these boards I guess.

In a way thats an interesting take by Tip. I brought it over here because I thought is was unique, however, I do not think thats the complete reason to what is transpiring. 

I would love to see the Euro's MJO evolution stall in a good phase, and at a decent amp, but not super high, and then see what the EPS goes to.    

Certainly it could become a  Katie bar the door scenario, ( hey a Herb Clarke reference ala 1980 ) because the players are around, have to see final outcome and way to early to tell that.  

 

 

 

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Ok to me HM is saying winter is coming, and I don't care what anyone else says :-) 

We all know his messages need to be read inbetween the lines. 

 

 

 

 

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Interesting, however, it seems maybe the guys over the pond get the goods first.  

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Yeah what you are saying could evolve. Have you seen the various MJO forecast this AM. I guess for me the takeaway was the number of days in phase 5 of the MJO and how long it is taking to move forward. 

Seems the trend last 48 hours is to slow the progression to 7 and 8 even more. Basically longer than forecasted. And all I can think of is your buddy, JB, LOL and his call for the opposite this season, in which  the MJO would cycle in the cold phases way more than the warm. 

 

not really seeing that...per the euro its in phase 6 for a short amount of time and then spends some quality time in Phase 8 with decent amplitude. ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Blocking much...

IMG_8183.thumb.PNG.89274fb34be9cf68fd454f176c7321e8.PNG

i think we have the possibility to see some crazy things still this winter. 2006-07 had a flip exactly on Jan 15 after a terrible 1st half......There is plenty of time to get a big snowstorm Jan 20-31 and then another one in February with a few events in between. 30-40 is still doable imo but we need to flip fast. All we need is some cold air....the wet pattern has been persistant

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13 minutes ago, frd said:

Seriously, I missed that, LOL.  So he reads these boards I guess.

In a way thats an interesting take by Tip. I brought it over here because I thought is was unique, however, I do not think thats the complete reason to what is transpiring. 

I would love to see the Euro's MJO evolution stall in a good phase, and at a decent amp, but not super high, and then see what the EPS goes to.    

Certainly it could become a  Katie bar the door scenario, ( hey a Herb Clarke reference ala 1980 ) because the players are around, have to see final outcome and way to early to tell that.  

 

 

 

Oh yea he reads. Way too often something is on here and then magically appears on his blog or video soon after.  Kinda like someone else and Fox News...  Sometimes even things we have been talking about in this thread. 

As for Tips theory...I think it is part of it but not the whole enchilada. I'm punching above my weight here with Tip but while the gradients would amplify the effect and so not having them would mute the signal some...allowing a strong mjo to impact more...warmer waters in the central PAC should still add heat from that location which would favor the response. So it might be part of the problem but I doubt it's the whole and it's unlikely why the mjo wave was so amplified but it contributed perhaps to muting the nino base state some. 

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15 minutes ago, frd said:

Ok to me HM is saying winter is coming, and I don't care what anyone else says :-) 

We all know his messages need to be read inbetween the lines. 

 

 

 

 

Sometimes I feel like I need that little orphan Annie decoder from A Christmas Story to read his posts...but over the years in my quest to research and decode his posts I have learned a ton about things I didn't even know I didn't know.  

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think we have the possibility to see some crazy things still this winter. 2006-07 had a flip exactly on Jan 15 after a terrible 1st half......There is plenty of time to get a big snowstorm Jan 20-31 and then another one in February with a few events in between. 30-40 is still doable imo but we need to flip fast. All we need is some cold air....the wet pattern has been persistant

Not just wet we have had several damn perfect h5 low passes but there was no cold to work with.  Even in the crap pattern the storm track has been fine. 

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3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Tomorrow at 0z is when I start paying attention truly. If there aren't opportunities showing up at the end of those runs then I say uh oh

It's close to a lock that we'll get digital snow next 24 hours. The real question is whether you believe it or not...

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's close to a lock that we'll get digital snow next 24 hours. The real question is whether you believe it or not...

there is a better lock for digital rain

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's close to a lock that we'll get digital snow next 24 hours. The real question is whether you believe it or not...

Won’t believe until the winter storm warning goes into effect :lol:

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14 minutes ago, yoda said:

Super Yuck

 

That look is nothing new. EPS is incrementally progressing towards a more serviceable pattern, but it wont be until beyond the 20th if recent runs are correct. I suspect odds are the GEFS will cave somewhat to the EPS, rather than the EPS speeding up the progression to a better pattern. But yeah, its going to be a while yet.

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sometimes I feel like I need that little orphan Annie decoder from A Christmas Story to read his posts...but over the years in my quest to research and decode his posts I have learned a ton about things I didn't even know I didn't know.  

BE SURE TO DRINK YOUR OVALTINE

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24 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Won’t believe until the winter storm warning goes into effect :lol:

Last March I was forecasted to get 3-6" as a storm was already underway and got less than in inch  lol

 

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Just now, H2O said:

BE SURE TO DRINK YOUR OVALTINE

That's better than the models have been spitting out lately. I can't repeat what their decoded message has been!

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Last March I was forecasted to get 3-6" as a storm was already underway and got less than in inch  lol

 

That's why we need to get something going over the next 8 weeks. It's too easy in Mar for storms to find a way to screw everything up. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Last March I was forecasted to get 3-6" as a storm was already underway and got less than in inch  lol

 

I forget, was that not the time Dewey Beach scored again?  I thought there were several high impact beach events last year and durig the past last few years in general.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

That's why we need to get something going over the next 8 weeks. It's too easy in Mar for storms to find a way to screw everything up. 

Agreed but one thing that gives me hope is even if the speculation of a Nina lag and muted nino is  correct we are essentially sitting at exactly the same spot we were around Feb 15 last year.  A major Sswe combined with a mjo entering cold phases. And after the typical 2 week lag we got the great pattern in march. But it was too late. We got several very legit threats and hit one and got a minor glancing blow from another. 

But we are way ahead of the game this time. Even if the flip doesn't get right until around Feb 1 we probably do ok if the idea of epo and nao blocking is right. People can poo poo late snow all they want but if we get a favorable pattern for all of Feb and maybe into March we should get some hits.  That's still prime climo. Especially with nao blocking which correlates here even more later in season as wavelengths shorten. 

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Interesting adjustment on the 12z vs 6z gfs op irt next week. Pumping a big ridge out west, strengthening the neg nao, energy coming much farther south. If these adjustments continue wont be too long til we have energy coming south of us ala 0z euro control.

Eta: cant add trend gif attm due to attachments maxed out sorry dont have time to delete stuff right now.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But we are way ahead of the game this time. Even if the flip doesn't get right until around Feb 1 we probably do ok if the idea of epo and nao blocking is right. People can poo poo late snow all they want but if we get a favorable pattern for all of Feb and maybe into March we should get some hits.  That's still prime climo. Especially with nao blocking which correlates here even more later in season as wavelengths shorten. 

This is one reason I think the odds of colder risks for March are higher, and I have seen snow on the ground in March with temps in the teens , March can be bad. Sun angle or no snow angle.  

 

 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

I forget, was that not the time Dewey Beach scored again?  I thought there were several high impact beach events last year and durig the past last few years in general.  

No it was the miller b hybrid that crushed NJ in early March. The day before all the guidance shifted the deform banding west and crushed northeast MD pretty good. It was universal. From the euro to gfs and nam they all had my area in about .7-1" qpf that night. Then when 0z came in everything shifted 50 miles northeast and I got fringed.  Miller b storms are like that. Because they develop late and explosively it's very volatile and leads to more busts then other types. Not all bad. We have had some noteworthy good busts with miller b storms. Feb 10, 2010...One of the Feb 1996 storms was a surprise miller b that was supposed to hit NJ and crushed us with 8-12". 

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In reality next week's threat will probably end up a New England storm but imo that us a step in the right direction irt the pattern change and our chances moving along into the 2nd half of January. Once we start to see areas up N cash in our areas will follow.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Interesting adjustment on the 12z vs 6z gfs op irt next week. Pumping a big ridge out west, strengthening the neg nao, energy coming much farther south. If these adjustments continue wont be too long til we have energy coming south of us ala 0z euro control.

Eta: cant add trend gif attm due to attachments maxed out sorry dont have time to delete stuff right now.

looks good. LP has dropped south the the US/Can Border

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

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