Ji Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 The bigger red flag on the euro is how racing straight back toward the warm phases at warp speed after spending like a week in the cold. If we want to worry about a realistic way this whole winter could be an epic dumpster fire fail that would be it right there. If its cod...probably wont matter the phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The bigger red flag on the euro is how racing straight back toward the warm phases at warp speed after spending like a week in the cold. If we want to worry about a realistic way this whole winter could be an epic dumpster fire fail that would be it right there. I noticed that but I’m not sure I put much faith in its forecast of the MJO past a week, if even that long. But if its heads for the COD from Phase 8, would it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: I noticed that but I’m not sure I put much faith in its forecast of the MJO past a week, if even that long. But if its heads for the COD from Phase 8, would it matter? Not really and neither do I. But if it dives into the cod then reemerges into warm phases a week later and repeats its last cycle we're done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Not really and neither do I. But if it dives into the cod then reemerges into warm phases a week later and repeats its last cycle we're done. Nah, some other mysterious force will manufacture a great pattern during p5-6 just to remind us that we have no idea why patterns do what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not really and neither do I. But if it dives into the cod then reemerges into warm phases a week later and repeats its last cycle we're done. Quit scaring the weenies. Bob's doing a good enough job of that himself without your help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Nah, some other mysterious force will manufacture a great pattern during p5-6 just to remind us that we have no idea why patterns do what they do. Lol. I do believe in chaos. And when the mjo is in low amplitude it can be overcome by other drivers. But when it's at high amplitide like recently it's usually going to overwhelm the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Quit scaring the weenies. Bob's doing a good enough job of that himself without your help. I'm not scaring them. I'm helping them mentally prepare for a met winter shutout. It's public service. Someone has to do it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: And that is why JB is a useless tool. Those 3 years couldn't have been more different. 65/66 lead to an epic snow blitz late January. 84/85 was an extreme arctic blast but a total bust for snow. Cold dry then a warm up. A total crap snow year. He knows 90% care about snow not cold so those analogs are useless for gleaming anything meaningful. Yea at some point it will probably get cold. In winter??? Really. Omg. Lol Yes I learned years ago to pay him no attention. Which is sad because he has forgotten more than I'll ever know. But he has an agenda and also a paid site. He has to hype. Sometimes I wonder if he actually believes what he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Quit scaring the weenies. Bob's doing a good enough job of that himself without your help. Need to thin the Hurd in here. It's too crowded. Just giving the weak ones a nudge towards the cliff. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Yes I learned years ago to pay him no attention. Which is sad because he has forgotten more than I'll ever know. But he has an agenda and also a paid site. He has to hype. Sometimes I wonder if he actually believes what he says. I'll occasionally read or watch him because I can usually tell what is legit and what is just BS. Sometimes he is full of it and just stringing people along while praying for a miracle or a way to spin what's going wrong. I can usually tell the difference. When he starts contradicting himself, ignoring the fact things he used as key parts of a forecast have gone wrong and swapping to "other reasons" or simply starts on about stuff that isn't that significant or just plain wrong he is just BSing people on purpose Imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Need to thin the Hurd in here. It's too crowded. Just giving the weak ones a nudge towards the cliff. Still too early to think about next winter? Lol I'll tell you what...especially if this winter fails...when we finally get hit again, it's gonna be all the more sweet because of everything we've been through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Still too early to think about next winter? Lol I'll tell you what...especially if this winter fails...when we finally get hit again, it's gonna be all the more sweet because of everything we've been through! The thing is.... this type of winter (in general) is by far the most common type we get. Lots of deadspace and short windows of good opportunities. This one is a little worse because except for early Dec it's been a shutout pattern with no hope. We typically get more chances of a fluke or lucky event. We cant even get close to that. We do get some amazing winters sometimes so it gives us hope at the beginning of every year but failure and disappointment is kinda status quo more than a punishment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 18z GFS continues to advertise the big time pattern flip....very cold and wintry after Jan 9....maybe showing up too fast but it's coming like a freight train. The fun op fantasy runs we said would start right after the flip of the calendar year are starting to show guys. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS continues to advertise the big time pattern flip....very cold and wintry after Jan 9....maybe showing up too fast but it's coming like a freight train. The fun op fantasy runs we said would start right after the flip of the calendar year are starting to show guys. Kind of far fetched seeing as it's the op but 18z does bring back winter by next Wednesday and keeps it around throughout the run. Not much in terms of snow but plenty of cold. Let's see if the GEFS holds again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS continues to advertise the big time pattern flip....very cold and wintry after Jan 9....maybe showing up too fast but it's coming like a freight train. The fun op fantasy runs we said would start right after the flip of the calendar year are starting to show guys. Lol at wintry 18z OP looks atrocious at 384 when you compare it to what 12z looked like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Kind of far fetched seeing as it's the op but 18z does bring back winter by next Wednesday and keeps it around throughout the run. Not much in terms of snow but plenty of cold. Let's see if the GEFS holds again. Again probably wrong in rushing it in this fast but like I keep hitting on the flip may very well be a sneak attack on us. So many folks are looking out towards Jan 20+ and worrying about details at that range leading up yet missing many important aspects in the medium range which could cause a flip like a light switch and a surprise (short range lead time) storm to usher things in. We'll see but I am about as optimistic that 'its happening ' than I've been in a while. Eta: Cue Bob chill to find some index and map to crush my spirit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol at wintry 18z gfs has a nice +ao/nao/epo at the end. What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs has a nice +ao/nao/epo at the end. What could go wrong? Knew it was coming thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Finally some arctic cold under 240 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Coming this fall...Disaster at 384..on ABC 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS continues to advertise the big time pattern flip....very cold and wintry after Jan 9....maybe showing up too fast but it's coming like a freight train. The fun op fantasy runs we said would start right after the flip of the calendar year are starting to show guys. Except it ends about to torch us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except it ends about to torch us again. I'm personally going to try and ease up on looking for unicorns and epic near-perfect patterns to lock-in at 14 day lead times + and instead am in 10 day and under mode for the time being. If we can start getting true workable patterns to show themselves in the shorter range and actually verify I'll worry about duration after the fact. We should probably shift focus to getting whatever we can then hope it can establish or repeat afterward. Dont we always say get the cold air in first then worry about storms second? Signs on more guidance than not that we will start seeing some decent negative temp anomalies coming sooner than some may realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm personally going to try and ease up on looking for unicorns and epic near-perfect patterns to lock-in at 14 day lead times + and instead am in 10 day and under mode for the time being. If we can start getting true workable patterns to show themselves in the shorter range and actually verify I'll worry about duration after the fact. We should probably shift focus to getting whatever we can then hope it can establish or repeat afterward. Dont we always say get the cold air in first then worry about storms second? Signs on more guidance than not that we will start seeing some decent negative temp anomalies coming sooner than some may realize. This is true but notice after 210 the system that comes in is rain. It can get get cold even in the worst pattern but unless we can lock it in for a while forget it. Maybe we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except it ends about to torch us again. Wow...never did I think I would see the day when @psuhoffman would be extrapolating the 384 op GFS. We have arrived folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 See u guys shortly to analyze the 384 hr GEFS btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Gefs 324 is nice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 We take... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 GEFS doesn’t blink and looks great. Quite the model war. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Too bad the GEFS doesn't run out to hour 600. By then, all of the snow hostility will have worked its way out of the pattern. Otherwise, it is a 44 deg. N pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Again, not getting too far out like mid month, but important changes consistently showing now within around 10 days. One important feature I've been watching is the ridge N of HI finally breaking down. Actually takes an interesting progression and moves into the EPO area building heights there like a flip of a switch. This scenario has repeatedly been hinted at and while still a long way out is now within about 10 day which is *fairly* reasonable for key pattern features being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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