psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hang on...is THAT the culprit here? (and Iet me guess...that's one of those more random things that can't possibly be seen in a more LR outlook?) And why is it anomalous, per se? (Not fitting with what you'd see in a nino?) That is the mjo. Breaking it down to basics the mjo measures convective waves in the tropical convergence zone from the Indian Ocean into the western and central Pacific. The oceans are by far the most significant contributor to the atmospheric potential energy. And the tropics add more heat to the equation than the mid and high latitudes. So the tropics are the main driver and the tropical Pacific is our driver since that's what's upstream from us. Where convection and subsidence is indicates where heat is being added to the atmosphere and that heat tends to propagate poleward. So tracking those waves we see a correlation to where the longwave ridges and troughs set up in the mid latitudes. One reason a modoki nino is usually good is the warmer waters in the central Pacific tends to promote convection and heat being added to the mid latitudes in a location favorable to get a western North American ridge and a trough in the eastern Conus. The problem with the mjo wave in phases 3-6 is convection in the Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific promotes a more Nina like Pacific pattern with an enhanced Pacific jet and a trough just off and along the west coast which floods the Conus with warm Pacific air. That wasn't really expected given the SST this year. Speculation why includes the SSWE and lack of SST gradients due to warmth all over to AAM...who knows. As bob said sometimes the weather weathers. This was really simplified but hopefully it helps answer your question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Next panel is better. Pna ridge going up and squeeze play on the trop pv. I can extrapolate this panel into a good pattern just a few days down the line with a trough in the east and the tpv somewhere over or south of Hudson Holy nao lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 lol What a difference on the Euro. Backdoor cold front in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: lol What a difference on the Euro. Backdoor cold front in early January. I love the backdoor action. It can be fun..outside prison of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 D10 EPS looks not awful to me. Better than GEFS over NA, not quite as robust as GEFS with high latitude blocking. I’ll let the other folks who pay for it tell us how it craps the bed after D10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 We hit rock bottom yesterday after hitting it 2 days ago. Hopefully today we start to climb out. The weeklies good look is only 3 weeks away ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: D10 EPS looks not awful to me. Better than GEFS over NA, not quite as robust as GEFS with high latitude blocking. I’ll let the other folks who pay for it tell us how it craps the bed after D10. It pops a trough in the east day 11 but then quickly crashes another trough into the west and goes to crap by day 13. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It pops a trough in the east day 11 but then quickly crashes another trough into the west and goes to crap by day 13. Booooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 It pops a trough in the east day 11 but then quickly crashes another trough into the west and goes to crap by day 13. Makes no sense with ssw...neg soi and mjo in phase 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It pops a trough in the east day 11 but then quickly crashes another trough into the west and goes to crap by day 13. Yup. EPS definitely not making any move towards the GEFS that’s for sure. Quite a model battle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Eps looks worse than last night. When will it start to agree with it's own weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It pops a trough in the east day 11 but then quickly crashes another trough into the west and goes to crap by day 13. The fast Pac flow continues on the EPS I would think that would eventually change, and the Pac flow slows down. Sorry, no concensus yet, still too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Good News is, we are once again seeing slight improvements with the PAC jet on the EPS and the improvements are being seen inside day 10. Bad News is, at the rate it is improving we will finally get the PAC jet tamed just in time for our Spring deluge of 38 degrees and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps looks worse than last night. When will it start to agree with it's own weeklies? It does ? I haven't seen it yet but plenty of people think it's alot better than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 It does ? I haven't seen it yet but plenty of people think it's alot better than 0z.Pos nao...epo...blue in the arctic...ridge in east. Other than that...looks decent 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It does ? I haven't seen it yet but plenty of people think it's alot better than 0z. Better or worse is subjective. Still shows a -pna, +epo, +ao/nao, and ridge in the east. I challenge anyone to spin that into something good. In my eyes it's another disaster of an ens run with zero reason to believe our area has a chance at snow over the next 2 weeks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It does ? I haven't seen it yet but plenty of people think it's alot better than 0z. Pos nao...epo...blue in the arctic...ridge in east. Other than that...looks decent Lol- ninja'd. It's a disgusting look with the only hope being that it's wrong on all levels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. From NE...hopefully this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It does ? I haven't seen it yet but plenty of people think it's alot better than 0z. NYC subforum? Go hang out with them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It does ? I haven't seen it yet but plenty of people think it's alot better than 0z. Who thinks it looks good? You said plenty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps looks worse than last night. When will it start to agree with it's own weeklies? It does. The improvement on the weeklies started about 36 hours past the end of this run. Look at the 2 same time... 12z EPS weeklies same time if the EPS are still on track another day later we will see the trough out west split and a piece undercut the ridge across the central US while the main trough pulls back in the PAC and a couple days after that an epo ridge pops. The whole thing happens fast. As soon as the trough pulls back the epo ridge goes up. But that is still 36 hours after the end of the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- ninja'd. It's a disgusting look with the only hope being that it's wrong on all levels Or that or follows the weeklies progression from there. The next 15 days are lost. I've moved past that. If we can get to a good pattern around the 20th at this point I'll take that as a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Yesterday was a real pattern change, bone chilling cold from October on broke... now there's -NAO on models. hmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: From NE...hopefully this is it. I'm not seeing that. All i see is bn heights from San Fran to Fairbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Or that or follows the weeklies progression from there. I fully expect the next weeklies to push the flip further out in time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Yesterday was a real pattern change, bone chilling cold from October on broke... now there's -NAO on models. hmm Pattern change? Yep, that's what we all like to call a cold front. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not seeing that. All i see is bn heights from San Fran to Fairbanks. Only thing I see that's better is the trough in GOA is weaker on the 12z run. Have to see if its just noise or if the lower h5 heights continue to shift more over the Aleutians going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I fully expect the next weeklies to push the flip further out in time Maybe. But look at the two panels I posted. Today's EPS actually might look slightly better than the weeklies same time. Definitely the same idea. Very similar. But the PAC trough is weaker and heights up top less hostile. But the longwave pattern is the same. No sign yet that it's changed. Not saying it won't. But this run wasn't any indication of it. That's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Sometimes the most difficult thing is to know what you're looking at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I fully expect the next weeklies to push the flip further out in time This winter has been more exhausting than any other. Maybe I am just getting older and losing patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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