Waiting on snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 When was the last time the Pac firehose was this hostile in January and actually flip to a good pattern before March? It would be comforting to know it's possible. I only remember 11-12 and 16-17 and both were epic dumpster fires the rest of the way. Different enso but still same disgusting Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 CPC 8-14 day outlook is a dumpster fire across the CONUS. How did we get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I fully expect the next weeklies to push the flip further out in time Won't have to wait long. Tonight run should show the first hints of the trough backing out west then tomorrow's runs should show the first signs of the epo ridge developing. So in 24 hours we will know if the EPS is backing off the weekly progression. This is what tonight's run should look like at the end if the weeklies are still the right idea Then by tomorrow night the flip is well under way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe. But look at the two panels I posted. Today's EPS actually might look slightly better than the weeklies same time. Definitely the same idea. Very similar. But the PAC trough is weaker and heights up top less hostile. But the longwave pattern is the same. No sign yet that it's changed. Not saying it won't. But this run wasn't any indication of it. That's all I'm saying. In case you haven't noticed... lol... I'm completely uninspired with this winter. That's not going to change until the real deal is inside of 7 days or even overhead. My pessimism will remain intact for at least 3 weeks according to your forecast or 2 months if what my gut is telling me is right. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Bastardi is using December 65, 84 and 94 as analogs to this strat warming. Apparently extreme cold followed. But did those winters feature a raging Pac jet to f**k it up like this year has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In case you haven't noticed... lol... I'm completely uninspired with this winter. That's not going to change until the real deal is inside of 7 days or even overhead. My pessimism will remain intact for at least 3 weeks according to your forecast or 2 months if what my gut is telling me is right. We will see. ORH_wxman thinks the end of the EPS is moving the right way... "The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 One thing i think the eps could be getting wrong is the ao/nao. I do question a strong +ao establishing in 10 days. It very well could end up much better than the eps panels suggest. It wont save the pac but it would provide a crack in the shutout wall currently in place. We'll know on way or the other fairly quickly and not weeks down the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said: Bastardi is using December 65, 84 and 94 as analogs to this strat warming. Apparently extreme cold followed. But did those winters feature a raging Pac jet to f**k it up like this year has? Analogs...analogs...step right up folks...we have analogs to fit every budget. No cash you say? Well our operators are standing by...have a job...steady paycheck...we have your analog! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 The pattern to me, by temps/precip is essentially a colder 1994-95 nationally with a weaker/drier subtropical jet than that year because of the SOI in December. I don't think its that shocking what has happened to date. The low solar El Ninos tend to be drier than the high solar years nationally. Wouldn't be shocked if there is one big blizzard in the NE between 1/20 and 2/10, but outside that window I don't see much potential. There are strong correlations between big +SOI Decembers and the SE ridge/eastern warmth in Feb. Most of the things I look at imply Western or Southwestern cold in March with tornado outbreaks in the Plains and SE throughout March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 On 12/31/2018 at 10:30 AM, psuhoffman said: 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In case you haven't noticed... lol... I'm completely uninspired with this winter. That's not going to change until the real deal is inside of 7 days or even overhead. My pessimism will remain intact for at least 3 weeks according to your forecast or 2 months if what my gut is telling me is right. Ji offering tutoring services now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, raindancewx said: The pattern to me, by temps/precip is essentially a colder 1994-95 nationally with a weaker/drier subtropical jet than that year because of the SOI in December. I don't think its that shocking what has happened to date. The low solar El Ninos tend to be drier than the high solar years nationally. Wouldn't be shocked if there is one big blizzard in the NE between 1/20 and 2/10, but outside that window I don't see much potential. There are strong correlations between big +SOI Decembers and the SE ridge/eastern warmth in Feb. Most of the things I look at imply Western or Southwestern cold in March with tornado outbreaks in the Plains and SE throughout March. 94-95 was absolutely bone dry. I believe we had a brief period in December with a couple of storms but otherwise 10/94-10/95 was one of the driest periods in recent memory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We will see. ORH_wxman thinks the end of the EPS is moving the right way... "The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. " I see what he's pointing out. The ridge north of HI could build behind the Pac trough hitting the coast. Would love that to be the case. If we start seeing another pinwheel of pac troughs setting up it could push things down the line. It's hard to extrapolate a hideous d15 panel into something good though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I see what he's pointing out. The ridge north of HI could build behind the Pac trough hitting the coast. Would love that to be the case. If we start seeing another pinwheel of pac troughs setting up it could push things down the line. It's hard to extrapolate a hideous d15 panel into something good though. Or maybe the EPS is flat wrong. Could be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: 94-95 was absolutely bone dry. I believe we had a brief period in December with a couple of storms but otherwise 10/94-10/95 was one of the driest periods in recent memory Yea, and he's posting that in a region that is breaking all time precip records on the heels of a relentless string of big qpf winter rain storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Bastardi is using December 65, 84 and 94 as analogs to this strat warming. Apparently extreme cold followed. But did those winters feature a raging Pac jet to f**k it up like this year has? And that is why JB is a useless tool. Those 3 years couldn't have been more different. 65/66 lead to an epic snow blitz late January. 84/85 was an extreme arctic blast but a total bust for snow. Cold dry then a warm up. A total crap snow year. He knows 90% care about snow not cold so those analogs are useless for gleaming anything meaningful. Yea at some point it will probably get cold. In winter??? Really. Omg. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 A lot of places in the NE have been dry since Dec 1 - but I agree it's been wet overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I see what he's pointing out. The ridge north of HI could build behind the Pac trough hitting the coast. Would love that to be the case. If we start seeing another pinwheel of pac troughs setting up it could push things down the line. It's hard to extrapolate a hideous d15 panel into something good though. Yea I see it too. Looping the last 48 hours you can see that ridge building south of AK. Just like the weeklies. If that went out another 48 hours we likely would see that split the trough and become the epo ridge. Hopefully that continues in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, and he's posting that in a region that is breaking all time precip records on the heels of a relentless string of big qpf winter rain storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 DT thinks things will turn around later in January and Feb. who’s excited? Anyone? Aleet? Bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 The geps gefs EPS progression is the same. But the gefs geps start it day 9/10. The EPS day 15. Crazy difference in timing. But big picture the pattern evolution isn't that different. The weaker mjo creating more lag of phase 6 could logically be why the EPS stalls the eastern Pacific trough breakdown by 5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: CPC 8-14 day outlook is a dumpster fire across the CONUS. How did we get here. It's winter. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 One thing i think the eps could be getting wrong is the ao/nao. I do question a strong +ao establishing in 10 days. It very well could end up much better than the eps panels suggest. It wont save the pac but it would provide a crack in the shutout wall currently in place. We'll know on way or the other fairly quickly and not weeks down the line We are putting our hopes on extrapolating beyond 360 hours....a very bad sign January is cooked and our winter will hinge on getting one or two events. Hopefully epic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 28 minutes ago, BristowWx said: CPC 8-14 day outlook is a dumpster fire across the CONUS. How did we get here. We knew it would be crap until week 3 so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Latest Euro forecast for MJO travels through 6-7-8 before getting into COD. It’s been correcting over the past week and pushing the COD further down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One thing i think the eps could be getting wrong is the ao/nao. I do question a strong +ao establishing in 10 days. It very well could end up much better than the eps panels suggest. It wont save the pac but it would provide a crack in the shutout wall currently in place. We'll know on way or the other fairly quickly and not weeks down the line We are putting our hopes on extrapolating beyond 360 hours....a very bad sign January is cooked and our winter will hinge on getting one or two events. Hopefully epic All signs point to hoping February is epic. I don't think most people expected this, I know I didn't.... sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: DT thinks things will turn around later in January and Feb. who’s excited? Anyone? Aleet? Bueller? Of course DT sees the flip occurring in late January into February. He worships at the alter of the Euro and that is what it is suggesting at this time. God forbid he even consider any other model. 15 minutes ago, Ji said: 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One thing i think the eps could be getting wrong is the ao/nao. I do question a strong +ao establishing in 10 days. It very well could end up much better than the eps panels suggest. It wont save the pac but it would provide a crack in the shutout wall currently in place. We'll know on way or the other fairly quickly and not weeks down the line We are putting our hopes on extrapolating beyond 360 hours....a very bad sign January is cooked and our winter will hinge on getting one or two events. Hopefully epic Paging @WxWatcher007. Think this low hanging fruit is almost ripe enough for the picking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Latest Euro forecast for MJO travels through 6-7-8 before getting into COD. It’s been correcting over the past week and pushing the COD further down the road. Think the amplitude has been coming in stronger as well? Might need that stronger amplitude in the colder phases to help jump start the pattern shift. Otherwise we may have to depend on ENSO forcing for the pattern shift and that probably would drag on for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think the amplitude has been coming in stronger as well? Might need that stronger amplitude in the colder phases to help jump start the pattern shift. Otherwise we may have to depend on ENSO forcing for the pattern shift and that probably would drag on for awhile. Yep, I don’t have the old ones to compare but I’m pretty sure its been increasing the amplitude as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Yep, I don’t have the old ones to compare but I’m pretty sure its been increasing the amplitude as well. Wasn't that long ago when the eps was doing the loopty loop in P7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 35 minutes ago, nj2va said: Latest Euro forecast for MJO travels through 6-7-8 before getting into COD. It’s been correcting over the past week and pushing the COD further down the road. The bigger red flag on the euro is how racing straight back toward the warm phases at warp speed after spending like a week in the cold. If we want to worry about a realistic way this whole winter could be an epic dumpster fire fail that would be it right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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