• Member Statistics

    15,885
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Polka
    Newest Member
    Polka
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Again, not getting too far out like mid month, but important changes consistently showing now within around 10 days. One important feature I've been watching is the ridge N of HI finally breaking down. Actually takes an interesting progression and moves into the EPO area building heights there like a flip of a switch. This scenario has repeatedly been hinted at and while still a long way out is now within about 10 day which is *fairly* reasonable for key pattern features being shown. 

Thanks for stepping up and taking over as bannerman for a mid-month pattern change ... may the odds be ever in your favor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just checking in to see if anyone was excited about the Cohen post on Twitter earlier about the PV split. He’s pretty bullish about it. Doesn’t look like from glancing at the last few pages that anyone is buyin though lol. Thinks EC effects could poss start in two weeks or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Oh come on I was working the crowd. Couldn't you have at least let my panic inducing post about the 384 op percolate for a bit???

2 serous thoughts... I've never seen the gefs this insistent and consistent at uber long range and it's at a time when the EPS is like hell no. Lol. 

And we keep getting perfect h5 passes even during this crap pattern. If we can just get some cold...any cold.....like come on!

PSU, weren't you speculating earlier about God getting smiting the MA?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, wasnow215 said:

Just checking in to see if anyone was excited about the Cohen post on Twitter earlier about the PV split. He’s pretty bullish about it. Doesn’t look like from glancing at the last few pages that anyone is buyin though lol.

Not many cohen fans around here. His track record since the SAI went mainstream stinks. He's also quite the spin doctor when things went wrong multiple years in a row

  • Like 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing is.... this type of winter (in general) is by far the most common type we get. Lots of deadspace and short windows of good opportunities. This one is a little worse because except for early Dec it's been a shutout pattern with no hope. We typically get more chances of a fluke or lucky event. We cant even get close to that. 

We do get some amazing winters sometimes so it gives us hope at the beginning of every year but failure and disappointment is kinda status quo more than a punishment

I would call our good snow years more "streaky" than I would calling the bad ones status quo. I've been scouring the BWI snow records from 1883 onward...and there definitely seems to be trend of the good ones coming in a cluster, followed by a cluster of bad ones, lol But the good news is, only three times in 120+ years did we see more than 3 sub-climo winters in a row. And it was also a bit uncommon to see a really good year followed by a bad year, followed by a good year...It's always good a for 2-3 years, then bad for about the same (except for a few runs like the 60s where we strung together a bunch of climo+ years!)

By that logic...I'm more optimistic for next winter (as it seems three consecutive bad ones is the most common)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Just checking in to see if anyone was excited about the Cohen post on Twitter earlier about the PV split. He’s pretty bullish about it. Doesn’t look like from glancing at the last few pages that anyone is buyin though lol. Thinks EC effects could poss start in two weeks or so.

Well, from what I have seen written:

1. Not all SSWEs propagate to the surface.

2. Not all SSWEs which propagate will impact here (instead of say Eurasia).

3. Even if it does impact us here there can be a sizable lag (2 weeks to a month).

Once we see positive impacts inside day 10, I am sure that many will be more excited.

Of course if we do see blocking, I am not sure if there is any way to know if it came from the SSWE or not 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

What’s interesting is that the pieces that start shifting the PAC pattern show up next week on the GEFS.  It seems like a small ridge forms north of AK early next week which is the first domino to fall that then builds into the AO domain while ridging also subsequently builds on the west coast.  

If GEFS is right, that feature isn’t fantasy land.

The euro is starting to do the exact same thing only day 15 vs day 9. But they both evolve the Pacific pattern exactly the same way only a week apart. My guess is they are both following the same progression wrt the forcing shift in the Pacific but obviously disagree on the timing. 

I was going to make a post highlighting how the PAC breaks down and what to look for if it's real in a few mins after I put the kids to bed. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro is starting to do the exact same thing only day 15 vs day 9. But they both evolve the Pacific pattern exactly the same way only a week apart. My guess is they are both following the same progression wrt the forcing shift in the Pacific but obviously disagree on the timing. 

I was going to make a post highlighting how the PAC breaks down and what to look for if it's real in a few mins after I put the kids to bed. 

Family before weather?  And you call yourself a weenie.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well, from what I have seen written:

1. Not all SSWEs propagate to the surface.

2. Not all SSWEs which propagate will impact here (instead of say Eurasia).

3. Even if it does impact us here there can be a sizable lag (2 weeks to a month).

Once we see positive impacts inside day 10, I am sure that many will be more excited.

Of course if we do see blocking, I am not sure if there is any way to know if it came from the SSWE or not 

Yes good points. He said effects possibly in about two weeks but I have much respect for the “Bob’s and PSU’s etc” on here so I’m not banking at all on this. Heck coming back from 80’s and beautiful in Central Fla, so the 50’s etc in RVA is gonna feel “polar” haha.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, reason i'm bitter is because right around christmas both the eps and gefs showed a half decent non-shutout pattern. Wasnt great but at least kept the door open. Watching that transform into a Pac noro virus vomit pattern sucked. I hate hopeless shutout patterns and we've been in one for 2 weeks and are staring down the barrell of at least 10 more days of it. 

Now the EPS insists we dont make any progress for another 20 days. Do I like how the gefs looks last few days? Oh hell yea I do but it's very hard to be optimistic after watching the rug pull in the last week. I won't be optimistic again until things look good in the med range.

You nailed it. Right with ya. We just had a rug yanked an I don’t care how plush the next one looks or feels like. I’ll be cautious. That’s why I’m not paying too much attention right now. Needs to be well inside 240 with MJO headed to 8 and pos pna or neg ao/nao for me to mentally invest. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Even in the shutout pattern the ensembles somehow spit out a mecs/ hecs . I give you P003 and it's only 7 days away :D

f180.gif

 

Screenshot_20190101-204632_Chrome_crop_432x432.jpg

Storm thread? :lol:

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We all saw the eps in the long range and they looked like poo. I think though it's also good to note trends from one run to the previous.  If you compare todays run to 0z there is a lot going on. There is definitely a favorable trend here where the eps are backing off on the lower hgts just off the coast which is making for a better trend in the pna. There is certainly some disagreement going on whether to have all that energy sitting off the coast or not.  If all that energy continues to trend less and less you should notice a more meridonal flow instead of all this pacific jet vomit. The more energy bundled off  the coast will bring a flatter flow and pac air. Look at the the notable trend here at day 10, 13, and 15. You can see the better ridging out west pulls the lower hgts towards the east coast which is what you would expect with a phase 7 look. It even closely resembles a phase 7 el nino look. So maybe the eps are starting to pick up on a better mjo signal and not trying to kill it. I'm just not certain if I buy the look of the eps at the end. My only though is the reason it's doing that is because its killing the amplitude of the mjo in phase 7 which I think is wrong.   Hemispherically speaking we still aren't seeing the -ao signal show up on the eps. They do pop it for a couple days around day 10/11 then kill it and bring below normal hgts back. Thats needs to change too.eps_z500a_exnamer_41.thumb.gif.cc794b6693fec48bd652a2eb440edcf2.gifeps_z500a_exnamer_49.thumb.gif.2e69dfa0e83b0c65559e06ec9d8b8aff.gifeps_z500a_exnamer_59.thumb.gif.980116f3e17699d45d6db480e697edf6.gifnino_7_gen_mid.png.5fc8d6e20f0170e0b6fb8e16abf8db41.thumb.png.b15f6a9c6027013bf92ef5aebd10cd94.png

now look at the euro back on dec 20, constantly being to bearish on the mjo and not seeing the full amplitude of the wave propagating though. Now look at todays run. Note the continued correction towards more amplification. So I think as the euro continues to adjust for this we see better looks, or atleast I hope. Anyways, just putting some food for thought out there. 

old

20E91CC6-6944-4F19-8F56-AC89EBCA243B.png.e0e99735ed0b99f3a0a0dd5c0432d672.thumb.png.c2112965635079325fa10d7711f9ca43.png

new

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif.65a30c91dca16ae6bc174ceae0c56a49.gif.3368dc843b40262cce6aa61e455ef41e.gif

  • Like 13

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I looked for some analog years in Baltimore history that featured just a bit of snow Nov-Dec followed by the mean climo snow all coming in Jan-Feb-Mar.

Please look at the select list and let us know if this sort of back load has a good probability for the remainder of our winter for our region.

1921-22   Jan 31.3    Feb 4.4     Mar  0.1

1963-64   Jan 10.3    Feb  18.2  Mar  13.2

1977-78   Jan 12.4    Feb  12.3  Mar  8.5

1986-87   Jan  25.1   Feb  10.1

1995-96   Jan  32.6   Feb  19.0   Mar   7.6

2002-03   Jan  5.3     Feb  40.5   Mar  2.6

2015-16   Jan  30      Feb  2.6    Mar   2.5

 

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

We all saw the eps in the long range and they looked like poo. I think though it's also good to note trends from one run to the previous.  If you compare todays run to 0z there is a lot going on. There is definitely a favorable trend here where the eps are backing off on the lower hgts just off the coast which is making for a better trend in the pna. There is certainly some disagreement going on whether to have all that energy sitting off the coast or not.  If all that energy continues to trend less and less you should notice a more meridonal flow instead of all this pacific jet vomit. The more energy bundled off  the coast will bring a flatter flow and pac air. Look at the the notable trend here at day 10, 13, and 15. You can see the better ridging out west pulls the lower hgts towards the east coast which is what you would expect with a phase 7 look. It even closely resembles a phase 7 el nino look. So maybe the eps are starting to pick up on a better mjo signal and not trying to kill it. I'm just not certain if I buy the look of the eps at the end. My only though is the reason it's doing that is because its killing the amplitude of the mjo in phase 7 which I think is wrong.   Hemispherically speaking we still aren't seeing the -ao signal show up on the eps. They do pop it for a couple days around day 10/11 then kill it and bring below normal hgts back. Thats needs to change too.

HOLY COW. Welcome back, we have missed your posts greatly. Nothing like the old days with your 0Z EURO PBP. I waited up for those with baited breath. Don't be a stranger even though you have your own site. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

HOLY COW. Welcome back, we have missed your posts greatly. Nothing like the old days with your 0Z EURO PBP. I waited up for those with baited breath. Don't be a stranger even though you have your own 

Have a link to his site?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's what the CanSips says for Jan. Not a shutout pattern and a lot better than what we're currently dealing with. Implies that the gefs is right with the -epo and tpv making a move towards Hudson.

cansips_z500a_nhem_1.png

 

Feb is better

cansips_z500a_nhem_2.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is pretty amazing and says a lot, much of which would generate commentary not suitable for younger readers.  The absence of any appreciable precip anywhere in CONUS is pathetic.  There's a few very light showers in the SE and a smattering of flurries here and there in the Rockies.  Otherwise, nada.  

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, winterymix said:

I looked for some analog years in Baltimore history that featured just a bit of snow Nov-Dec followed by the mean climo snow all coming in Jan-Feb-Mar.

Please look at the select list and let us know if this sort of back load has a good probability for the remainder of our winter for our region.

1921-22   Jan 31.3    Feb 4.4     Mar  0.1

1963-64   Jan 10.3    Feb  18.2  Mar  13.2

1977-78   Jan 12.4    Feb  12.3  Mar  8.5

1986-87   Jan  25.1   Feb  10.1

1995-96   Jan  32.6   Feb  19.0   Mar   7.6

2002-03   Jan  5.3     Feb  40.5   Mar  2.6

2015-16   Jan  30      Feb  2.6    Mar   2.5

 

 

 

Where are 1965/66, 1981/2, 1992/3 and 2014/15 on that list?  Just to name a few off the top of my head your missing...years where bwi had very little snow going into January and beat climo. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's what the CanSips says for Jan. Not a shutout pattern and a lot better than what we're currently dealing with. Implies that the gefs is right with the -epo and tpv making a move towards Hudson.

cansips_z500a_nhem_1.png

 

Feb is better

cansips_z500a_nhem_2.png

Keep in mind the front 10-15 days of January would skew the mean for the month...it's possible the pattern looks great the last 10-15 days.  Can't tell from the monthly mean but its servicable as you say.  February also might be better than the mean as its likely if the pattern sets in mid to late January that it breaks down sometime in mid February.  Historically these nino blocking patters that set in January break mid to lat feb.  If they don't set in until Feb like 58 or 69 then they last into March. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is how the GEFS was breaking down the pacific pattern around day 9

This looks familiar...same pac crap pattern we have been in for weeks

GFS1.png.c2dace803b82a75f1befc042ac31e01a.png

But a day later the GEFS shifts the ridge in the central PAC northeast and starts to break down/split the trough off the west coast which breaks the pacific firehose connection into the CONUS. 

gfs2.png.3c49b6916b9afc23089f4bc6b4858f1d.png

Another day later and the trough has now been split and the epo ridge is going up.

gfs3.png.745c8c76c03bd9fb2e404c707282691e.png

A couple days after that we see the result.  The epo ridge goes up, energy is still crashing into the west but now it doesn't hurt us because we have a split flow, the shift east of the ridge in the pacific into the epo domain has cut off the firehose and now energy coming in has to cut under in a split flow...the dominant flow into our area is out of the northwest...this is how we get some of our big snows.

gfs4.png.135004935057918c46c09d8bba6cf3f7.png

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The euro is doing the same thing only 5 days slower.  The EPS starts the process day 14...and only goes to 15 not 16 so we can't see it complete.  We did on the weeklies though so lets start with that and see the same exact evolution in the pacific as the GEFS only 5 days behind it. 

Here is the same pac crap puke pattern

Weekly1.png.ef65643bd938afcc0d270571ed65fcae.png

A day later and the same thing the GEFS was doing...the central pacific ridge shifts northeast and starts to cut off the trough off the west coast

weekly2.png.9a01502036f23aef197396ee37e8aae9.png

A day later and the ridge has completely cut off the trough and is now building into the EPO domain.  The trough shifts further west off Alaska after that and the EPO ridge builds developing a split flow and we are in business. 

weekly3.png.32290460e94995c63a6db9b13b8691e8.png

Here we can see the EPS at day 13 with the same crap pac look

EPS1.png.c5af453d562ac3b728df751e5c170602.png

but look by day 15 what is happening...the ridge is shifting and the heights are rising near Alaska and western Canada.  If this went a day further we would see the EPO ridge starting to develop. 

EPS2.png.70bfb32e6864f21c77a26084f9c4b69e.png

The GEFS and EPS aren't showing completely different pattern progressions, they are showing the same, they only disagree on the timing by 5 days.  Probably a compromise is the best solution.  But what we want is for this look, the shifting of the central pacific ridge (probably linked to a shifting in the tropical forcing in the pacific) to move forward in time across all guidance.  Once we get ridging into the epo domain to cut off the pacific jet blasting into the CONUS we will likely see the cascade of events needed to establish a favorable pattern for snow, and it could happen relatively fast once that pacific flow shifts. 

 

 

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro is doing the same thing only 5 days slower.  The EPS starts the process day 14...and only goes to 15 not 16 so we can't see it complete.  We did on the weeklies though so lets start with that and see the same exact evolution in the pacific as the GEFS only 5 days behind it. 

Here is the same pac crap puke pattern

Weekly1.png.ef65643bd938afcc0d270571ed65fcae.png

A day later and the same thing the GEFS was doing...the central pacific ridge shifts northeast and starts to cut off the trough off the west coast

weekly2.png.9a01502036f23aef197396ee37e8aae9.png

A day later and the ridge has completely cut off the trough and is now building into the EPO domain.  The trough shifts further west off Alaska after that and the EPO ridge builds developing a split flow and we are in business. 

weekly3.png.32290460e94995c63a6db9b13b8691e8.png

Here we can see the EPS at day 13 with the same crap pac look

EPS1.png.c5af453d562ac3b728df751e5c170602.png

but look by day 15 what is happening...the ridge is shifting and the heights are rising near Alaska and western Canada.  If this went a day further we would see the EPO ridge starting to develop. 

EPS2.png.70bfb32e6864f21c77a26084f9c4b69e.png

The GEFS and EPS aren't showing completely different pattern progressions, they are showing the same, they only disagree on the timing by 5 days.  Probably a compromise is the best solution.  But what we want is for this look, the shifting of the central pacific ridge (probably linked to a shifting in the tropical forcing in the pacific) to move forward in time across all guidance.  Once we get ridging into the epo domain to cut off the pacific jet blasting into the CONUS we will likely see the cascade of events needed to establish a favorable pattern for snow, and it could happen relatively fast once that pacific flow shifts. 

 

 

So it looks like Jan 15 give or a take a few days we could start to see a good pattern start to take hold. Which has been the timeframe we had been looking at for a while. I think the ugly pattern we are in just makes the wait that much harder for me and I’m sure many others.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

So it looks like Jan 15 give or a take a few days we could start to see a good pattern start to take hold. Which has been the timeframe we had been looking at for a while. I think the ugly pattern we are in just makes the wait that much harder for me and I’m sure many others.  

For sure...it would be one thing if we were in just a bad pattern but there were occasional fluke threats here or there to hold us over.  A front end 1-2", a back end snow event... some clippers...anything.  Even a random lake effect snowshower.  But the pacific jet has been on roids and just evacuated all cold from the CONUS and left us with the mother of all shutouts.  It hasn't been some epic torch, the constant barrage of STJ systems has kept that from happening, but its been too warm to entertain any snow chances. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For sure...it would be one thing if we were in just a bad pattern but there were occasional fluke threats here or there to hold us over.  A front end 1-2", a back end snow event... some clippers...anything.  Even a random lake effect snowshower.  But the pacific jet has been on roids and just evacuated all cold from the CONUS and left us with the mother of all shutouts.  It hasn't been some epic torch, the constant barrage of STJ systems has kept that from happening, but its been too warm to entertain any snow chances. 

Exactly. I’d be happy if it would be cold enough in Canaan to run the damn snow makers this weekend but that’s not looking good either lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For sure...it would be one thing if we were in just a bad pattern but there were occasional fluke threats here or there to hold us over.  A front end 1-2", a back end snow event... some clippers...anything.  Even a random lake effect snowshower.  But the pacific jet has been on roids and just evacuated all cold from the CONUS and left us with the mother of all shutouts.  It hasn't been some epic torch, the constant barrage of STJ systems has kept that from happening, but its been too warm to entertain any snow chances. 

Is it all the US or just our source region? I mean, there are parts of the Midwest pulling temps of -20. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

IMG_8178.thumb.PNG.cc37d4aafd285612055c76231177b406.PNGThis would lead somewhere good a few days later.  Gfs breaks the PAC pattern around day 10 then starts building cold to our north initially but with that epo and nao it's coming down soon after that panel. 

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is it all the US or just our source region? I mean, there are parts of the Midwest pulling temps of -20. 

There have been some transient cold shots to glance the interior northern tier but it's running above normal about everywhere the last 2 weeks and will the nect 10 days. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.